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Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 15
LCDR (Join to see) SGT Rick Colburn SPC Mike Lake MCPO Roger CollinsCPO Tim Dickey SSgt Harvey "Skip" Porter CW3 Harvey K. CMSgt Steve Pennington MAJ (Join to see) MAJ Montgomery Granger PO3 Rod ArnoldSGT (Join to see) Capt Dwayne Conyers SSgt Terry P.SSG Michael Noll LTC Jeff Shearer SGT (Join to see) Cpl Jeff N. CSM Richard StCyr 1SG Cj Grisham
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Some storms do follow fairly easy to predict paths. Many do not. Irma, last year, was similar in fashion to Dorian. The problem is trackers want to track it and publish their data even when they know their data is not good or the models have such divergence they do not really know where it is going. Forecasting the path more than a day or two out is pretty hard to do accurately.
The issue with weather predictions is there is little negative consequence for predicting calamity and being wrong. There is only a negative consequence for not predicting calamity hand having it happen somewhere.
The issue with weather predictions is there is little negative consequence for predicting calamity and being wrong. There is only a negative consequence for not predicting calamity hand having it happen somewhere.
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Col Carl Whicker
Exactly! While stationed in Guam, one local forecaster would predict every tropical storm within 500 miles was going to make landfall on Guam. Evidently his philosophy was that he only needed to be right once!
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SPC Margaret Higgins PO1 H Gene Lawrence SSG Jose M. Hernandezsanchez Sgt Albert Castro Jenn Moynihan SGT Elizabeth Scheck MSgt (Join to see) SMSgt Thor Merich SSG Diane R. Cynthia Croft Susan Foster TSgt David L. CPT (Join to see) CPT Scott Sharon SP5 Jeannie Carle Sgt Vance Bonds SSgt Boyd Herrst SPC Diana D. CMSgt Rickey W. Denicke, Sr. PO3 (Join to see)
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