Posted on Jul 12, 2017
New fears of a possible Trump impeachment could move stocks, bonds and gold
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Apparently, the stock market hasn't yet recovered from the uncertainty during the eight years of the Obama Administration, and traders are skittish like a herd of cattle on the open range during an electrical storm. Any little thing, even the unfounded fantasy of an impending impeachment, is likely to start a stampede.
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PO3 Steven Sherrill
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CPT Jack Durish I think Eddie Murphy summed it up pretty well in Trading Places.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI4fVgVVpiw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI4fVgVVpiw
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MSgt Rob Smith
True the market does not like uncertainty. But the SP500 and DOW JONES are both up over 300% since March 9, 2009. which was the bottom of the financial crisis. So I am not sure what has not been recovered since Obama. Politics do not have a huge affects on the equity market, temporary hiccups, sure, but nothing that is lasting.
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CWO3 (Join to see)
MSgt Rob Smith - that would be true in normal political times, but I think most agree there is nothing typical with what we are now seeing globally, I get it that you are in the business and wish you well with it, these are not normal times and the insiders make money regardless of whether the small investors do or not, I've seen most of the tactics i.e. pump n dump, sell long to the little guys while selling short internally, cover the downside with options etc. that's how the big guys get huge such as BlackRock and more, they win whether the market goes up or down and the small investors finance a small slice of that, the institutional folks are tied in so they are risk-averse, the 08 bailout opened my eyes to the larger picture because we've not seen a bailout of that magnitude ($800 B) financed by the taxpayers, and IMO we are seeing a global grab for the last resources and real estate, the little guy doesn't stand a chance in that scenario, the old Chinese proverb "may you live in interesting times" is germane
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MSgt Rob Smith
History repeats itself, the only difference right now in comparison to WWI, the turn of the 19th century, invention of Cars and Planes, WWII, Korea, Cuban missile crisis, oil embargos, etc. The internet and smart phones. information passes along and an incredible rate right now and there is much more false information being passed along do to this. But politics and world events go in cycles. Now I am speaking in terms of investments, growing wealth, Equities, Fixed income. You are making the case, that because of politics around the world people ( because you have) should avoid equities. That is a mistake, a huge mistake. I do not have nearly enough time or space on this to explain why, nor do I ever volunteer specifics in investing in an open forum, because what is good for one, might not be a good for others. But I can say, that Equities in some form and percentage (broad based and diversified) is good for all. I hear all the commercials about Gold. you know what you do not hear on the gold commercials, how much gold do the guys selling it have in their own portfolios. I have asked and I know a few of them, 15-20% no more. Why, diversification. There are companies out there, who have been paying stock holders dividends every year without skipping one, since the late 1800s and there are some of those same companies who have raised their dividends every year for well over 50-60 years. Why is that important. Lets say you own stock in Company ABC, and trades for $100 a share and you own 100 Shares. That is a $10k invest to start. and they pay at 4% div at that value. meaning $4 a share. that is $400 a year. lets say you are retired, and have a bunch of these types of companies (should have other investments too, but this is your equity portion) lets say on average this company haws raised its dividends 6% annually for the last 20 years. well inflation is only 2.8% and has averaged about 4.25% since the 1950s. so the increase in dividends keeps you ahead in inflation. Then comes the question, what about during a crash. No problem. Lets say next year, we get a 20% correction in the SP500. and this particular company is down 15%. now your shares are trading for $85 a share and your total value is $8500. Most who watch the news and read the internet of listen to Uncle Bob for investment advice would panic a little, or well and say things like they lost money. which you only do if you sell. Now you own this stock to get the dividends. And this company raises it dividends again 6%. So not you get $4.24 per share, which is $426 dollars a year. And that happens even though the stock is down in value. Then I get the question, but I hear the market is going down 80% or what if 2008 happens again. Well this company raised its dividend in 2008 10% so I would not worry. Yes I hear all the theories out there. The only statistic that matters is that the Equity has 100% of time after every dip, correction and bear returned and beaten its last all time highs. So again drops of 5, 10,15 or 30% are to be taken advantage of. And you never know when the best of worst day will be, so do not worry about things you can not control. I continue to meet people who went to cash in 2008 and never got back in and most will not be able to retire the way they want. You will do what you want, but I highly suggest, reaching out to a couple Financial advisors, real ones. not the insurance guy who only have a series 6 or just a series 65. But series 7 and series 66 types. Who can help with a multiple pronged approach. interview them and pick one and do what he or she tells you. Read the DALBAR study about investor habits, and how most (very high percentage) of those who are self investors, are their own worst enemies. Read the Vanguard and Russell studies on the value of having a Financial Advisor.
I would not have out all this in here, but your a Jar Head and we look after our own. and don't believe for one second that the board of directors for all the blue chip companies out there care who the president is, they make decision to grow business and make money. That is why politics only have a short term affect on the market. wise investors, wait for the panic people to sell, prices go down and then buy and ride the wave back up. There is a reason why wealthy people continue to get wealthy. One reason is that many others, let emotion and bad advice control their decisions, wise investors do not.
I would not have out all this in here, but your a Jar Head and we look after our own. and don't believe for one second that the board of directors for all the blue chip companies out there care who the president is, they make decision to grow business and make money. That is why politics only have a short term affect on the market. wise investors, wait for the panic people to sell, prices go down and then buy and ride the wave back up. There is a reason why wealthy people continue to get wealthy. One reason is that many others, let emotion and bad advice control their decisions, wise investors do not.
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I'd definitely place a friendly wager on the next Presidential election. I'd go with Trump. The Democrats have a two time failed candidate that they espouse is the most incredible, intelligent woman we have been gifted to be able to even gaze upon, and an old Communist that is conflicted with the old millionaire and billionaire diatribe while he owns 4 homes and brings in a million dollars. I'd take your bet.
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SSgt Gary Andrews
LTC (Join to see) - You're scenario could well come to pass......in today's political environment, all things are possible.
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LTC (Join to see)
CSM David Heidke - Fake Indian makes too much money now, she is a 1% and is too influential in Academia to run. She'll continue to chase the tires and bark a lot and be a good little agitator but not be a serious candidate. I'm hoping Biden comes back. For political junkies we are living in solid gold times. So many unqualified people telling us just how great they are an their policies will finally lift us up from the yoke of oppression. http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/08/news/economy/elizabeth-warren-wealth/index.html
Elizabeth Warren is worth millions
Though she fights for less fortunate Americans, Elizabeth Warren has amassed millions in wealth.
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CSM David Heidke
LTC (Join to see) - If Trumps agenda gets any traction and is able to implement even some of his reforms he will be wildly popular. He will be tough to beat.
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IMO the market has been grossly overbought for a long time. The new administration has caused moves to the upside. If anything meaningful comes with tax reform and infrastructure there may be more upward movement. Defense stocks should do well in near term, but unless I was an insider or really trusted my broker I'd be careful about investing now. Obviously a lot of political concerns and the market always buys on the rumor and sells on the news. Lots of rumors now but nothing really meaningful with regard to Trump administration, and especially impeachment. Just a lot of wishful thinking and speculation. Depends on pain threshold and how liquid one needs to be. There are always opportunities but in this climate one really needs to be sharp or be getting sound and trusted advice. I've been in cash and metals for quite some time, with exception of 2 stocks that I've long held. I've also missed out on some gains, but I sleep better at night and that's important to me. As one ages, the opportunity to recoup losses decreases so that's always a factor to consider. None of what we've seen so far warrants impeachment. Maybe in a (D) majority Congress but nothing thus far would yield removal, even with (D) majority. If more surfaces then it's a new game, but I wouldn't stake my financial future on that.
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PO3 Steven Sherrill
CWO3 (Join to see) Market is definitely due for a correction. It has been trending in an upward direction which is a good thing, but the sharp increases and intraday record highs that it has been experiencing eventually will come with a correction.
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CWO3 (Join to see)
PO3 Steven Sherrill - Thanks for the info. Sounds like you would know. I think we've been in a fool's rally for awhile. VIX dropped 5.4 % today and that's remarkable. Almost like a contrarian signal.
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MSgt Rob Smith
Did you know that if all you did was miss the 10 best days in the SP500 since 1980, a 10k initial investment would have more than 250K in lower overall gains. Everyday is good to invest. No one has a crystal ball, down markets are temporary and should be taken advantage of, not feared. So if you have been in cash and metals, you not making much money, and losing to inflation every year. Only one Asset class has ever kept people consistently ahead of inflation and that is equities. Granted it is not a throw anything against the wall and see if sticks sort of thing. there is more to it than that. Did you know that since 1950, we have averaged a correction about once a year, which is 10% or more, and every year we see an average of three 5% dips, and every 4-5 years we actually have a bear market, something down over 20%. These are averages. yet, wise investors, continue to invest and make and build wonderful amounts of wealth. I understand the sleeping better at night, which is why I am very picky of my clients. I don't sleep well at night if they are not investing properly and cash is only for opportunities and emergencies. Cash is not a long term investment move. it losses value every single year, that makes no sense and precious metals are something you buy at a premium and sell and a discount, pays no dividends and is not longer a true hedge. Sorry, but impeachment, politics, only bring opportunity in the Equity market, and corrections are nothing to be feared, even as you get older. You may not own as much, but you should probably own some.
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CWO3 (Join to see)
good pitch, but I sleep better at night and that's what matters most to me, the upside of an 8% total return vs a downside of another 20% correction is enough to keep me awake, I've been in market since 80's and have seen a lot of corrections, they never turn out good and the long term approach looks different when you're 40 than when you're 60, the big guys still make money and we get consolation from the broker about "timing the market" or the downside of being on the sidelines...followed by a pitch for another investment that will make you feel better about being upside down for the next 5 years or more, it's almost like the carnival games where you almost knocked the last milk jug over and if you'll throw more cash at it you'll go home with the large panda, I've had some sizeable gains from the market but over time it is minimal considering fees and the bad years, in the big picture QE just gave everyone an artificial sense of security while further devaluing our currency, I'll take my metals over a wheelbarrow full or worthless currency and stock certificates any day because they have intrinsic value, no matter what stocks or financials do I'll always be able to spend them and they are a hedge against inflation, the term "full faith and credit of US" just doesn't mean what it used to because Wall St and DC are one and the same now
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