Double Down Weather Services

In areas of the country, you would not believe that it is nearing Mid-April. It is not an indication of AGW or not, but the pooling of air-masses which inevitably, move away from cooler air. The subtropical Jet finds it way northward.

We go into what is normally a barotopic wave pattern, with minor fluxes North and South. Sustained cold air gives way to hot/humid conditions, whose source region comes out of the south and particularly from Mexico and Texas northward.

Also it is the transitional part going into June/July and the risk of tropical weather regimes.

In the early 2,000s, we had a hurricane reach of very warm pockets (2) of gulf waters, activating enhanced convection and super-adiabtic processes. One area was near the Florida Keys and one close to Ft. Myers. Fortunately that storm decided to defy the odds and take a strong right-hand turn. It was motivated by 500-mb height falls, which was the path of least resistance. Steering was kind of weak, with the best guess turning NE and east.

That situation had the chance for being much worse for extreme damage as we had a catastrophic high tide at landfall. And to make matters worse, it was heading towards Davis Island and Tampa General Hospital. A good portion of that storm would have inundated the islet where the hospital is located.