Posted on Mar 16, 2018
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The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is sponsoring the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC). Looks like a great opportunity for intelligence analyst to test their skills in forecasting.
Cultivate Forecasts - Prediction Markets & Crowdsourced Forecasting
Posted from hybridforecasting.comPosted in these groups: 
Intelligence
Intelligence Analyst
Geopolitics / International RelationsCIA
Statistics
Intelligence Intelligence Analyst Geopolitics / International RelationsCIA Statistics
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 1
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Thanks for sharing SPC David S. that the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) is sponsoring the Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC).
"HFC is a multi-year, U.S. Intelligence Community-funded research competition that seeks to develop and test hybrid forecasting methods that will radically improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical and geoeconomic forecasts.
Intelligence analysts and professionals in many other fields wrestle with the problem of how human judgments should be combined with forecasts based on computer algorithms and statistical models to optimize their ability to accurately forecast future events.
HFC aims to improve forecasting by combining the benefits of human- and machine-driven forecasting systems. Hybrid approaches hold promise for combining the strengths of these two approaches while mitigating their individual weaknesses. HFC will develop and test methods to optimize the collaboration of human and machine to create maximally accurate forecasts."
FYI COL Mikel J. Burroughs LTC Stephen C. LTC Orlando Illi LTC (Join to see) LTC Ivan Raiklin, Esq. Maj Bill Smith, Ph.D. Capt Seid Waddell Capt Jeff S. CPT Jack Durish MSG Dan Walther MSgt Robert C Aldi SFC Stephen King MSgt Danny Hope SGT Gregory Lawritson Cpl Craig Marton SP5 Mark Kuzinski SGT (Join to see) Maj Marty Hogan
"HFC is a multi-year, U.S. Intelligence Community-funded research competition that seeks to develop and test hybrid forecasting methods that will radically improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical and geoeconomic forecasts.
Intelligence analysts and professionals in many other fields wrestle with the problem of how human judgments should be combined with forecasts based on computer algorithms and statistical models to optimize their ability to accurately forecast future events.
HFC aims to improve forecasting by combining the benefits of human- and machine-driven forecasting systems. Hybrid approaches hold promise for combining the strengths of these two approaches while mitigating their individual weaknesses. HFC will develop and test methods to optimize the collaboration of human and machine to create maximally accurate forecasts."
FYI COL Mikel J. Burroughs LTC Stephen C. LTC Orlando Illi LTC (Join to see) LTC Ivan Raiklin, Esq. Maj Bill Smith, Ph.D. Capt Seid Waddell Capt Jeff S. CPT Jack Durish MSG Dan Walther MSgt Robert C Aldi SFC Stephen King MSgt Danny Hope SGT Gregory Lawritson Cpl Craig Marton SP5 Mark Kuzinski SGT (Join to see) Maj Marty Hogan
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SPC David S.
Yes there is an art to forecasting - judiciously constructed predictive models can augment human intelligence by helping humans avoid common cognitive traps. In terms of big data it is how such algorithms are constructed that limits machine intelligence. However correct , algorithms can augment human judgment but not replace it altogether. Training people to be better forecasters and pooling the judgments and fragments of partial information of smartly assembled teams of experts can yield better accuracy.
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LTC Stephen F.
SPC David S. - as a trained and experienced ORSA I was involved in forecasting tool development for a couple decades for both warfare outcomes and failure rate predictions for complex systems.
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SPC David S.
LTC Stephen F. - wow that's a fairly competitive slot - I think less than 500. I'm sure communicating analytics to decision-makers is not easy especially if the results are counter intuitive - not to mention cases where multiple regression is required.
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LTC Stephen F.
SPC David S. - the warfare predictive processes were initially for Desert Strom the year prior and were highly accurate.
The work I did this century for future warfare capabilities predictions was too highly classified to discuss.
The processes to develop tools for predictive failure rates and replenishment worked well for the USAF, NASA and the IAF. I was a tangential researcher in these processes with my primarily role being identifying code problems prior to turning over to the client.
FYI MSG Dan Walther COL Mikel J. Burroughs LTC Stephen C. LTC Orlando Illi Lt Col Charlie Brown Maj Bill Smith, Ph.D. Maj William W. "Bill" Price CPT Jack Durish Capt Tom Brown MSG Andrew White SFC William Farrell SGT (Join to see) Sgt Albert Castro SSG David Andrews Sgt Randy Wilber Sgt John H. CPL Dave Hoover SGT Mark Halmrast SPC Margaret Higgins[
The work I did this century for future warfare capabilities predictions was too highly classified to discuss.
The processes to develop tools for predictive failure rates and replenishment worked well for the USAF, NASA and the IAF. I was a tangential researcher in these processes with my primarily role being identifying code problems prior to turning over to the client.
FYI MSG Dan Walther COL Mikel J. Burroughs LTC Stephen C. LTC Orlando Illi Lt Col Charlie Brown Maj Bill Smith, Ph.D. Maj William W. "Bill" Price CPT Jack Durish Capt Tom Brown MSG Andrew White SFC William Farrell SGT (Join to see) Sgt Albert Castro SSG David Andrews Sgt Randy Wilber Sgt John H. CPL Dave Hoover SGT Mark Halmrast SPC Margaret Higgins[
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