Posted on May 24, 2024
NOAA issues its most aggressive hurricane season forecast on record
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The first named system in the Atlantic basin typically forms around June 20, with meteorologists tracking the first hurricane by Aug. 11. The NHC intends to de-emphasize the importance of the forecast cone in 2024 and warn that impacts occur well outside of it.
The agency anticipates between 17-25 named storms will form, with 8-13 becoming hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph. Out of those 8-13, 4 to 7 could become major with winds of at least 115 mph. It's the greatest number of hurricanes predicted by NOAA in its annual May forecast, surpassing the forecast of 14-23 storms in 2010.
The agency anticipates between 17-25 named storms will form, with 8-13 becoming hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph. Out of those 8-13, 4 to 7 could become major with winds of at least 115 mph. It's the greatest number of hurricanes predicted by NOAA in its annual May forecast, surpassing the forecast of 14-23 storms in 2010.
NOAA issues its most aggressive hurricane season forecast on record
Posted from foxweather.com
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Edited 6 mo ago
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I read the comments on this and was stunned by some of them. I know a few folk who work on both Weather and Climate Change models (and weather and Climate Change are separate items). You can go to either the European Models, or the American Models, and they will show you what parameters they use to figure out what storms will form and how strong. They use hundreds of data points, and they tweak each run with just slight changes and then repeat iteration after iteration. Then they pick the ones that seem to show up most consistently. There are always outliers when you see the spaghetti runs. Eventually though, they firm Up.
There are more than five hundred different Specialties studying "Climate Change". Some are studying ice core, soil samples, tree rings, algae blooms, radiation absorption, atmospheric gasses, ocean currents, sea water temperatures, sand shifts from Africa, dust particle circulation, methane pockets, Arctic Sea Ice, AntArctic Shelving, Greenland glacial run off, Atmospheric Rivers, cyclic rotation of dying ocean currents, reflective potential of ice, sea water, and air pollution. And a whole host more Disciplines that are each studying a piece of the collective pie.
And then there are the Meta- Analysis that try and mold these different models into a cohesive whole that is understandable and can make accurate, or at least as accurate they can make them with the data and model runs they have.
And they are getting better with Hurricanes, and worse with Tornadoes, because those things are throwing curve balls at them left and right. No tornado that we have been able to document before the last twenty years, ever stayed on the ground for more than a hundred miles, and covered five states. Nor did F5' s show up frequently. As they get more data, and start to understand the nuances...why the Gulf Stream is moving the way it is, and how that effects the atmospheric rivers dropping tons of water up in our NorthEast, those aren't easy dots to connect.
I went to a Climate Change Conference a few years back. I was invited by a friend who is a Physicist whose expertise is in Heat. And his buddy was a Chemist. The third person in our little four person parade, she was an Astronomer looking for exoplanet atmospheres, trying to learn more about our own planet and what clues it might give her. The fist person I met at that conference was a Fishing boat Captain from Alaska, who also holds a Doctorate in Fish Population Genetics, and apparently hot water isn't so good for fish. So yeah, if you are looking for simple answers, Climate change isn't the place to look. Like how many of you realize the entire infrastructure of septic systems is under assault in Florida and the Gulf coastal areas, and the culprit ...sea level rising. So add Plumbers to the growing list of folks noticing something isn't right.
But if you want tons of data, experiments and computer models, which are all showing that things are changing - and faster than at any period in the History we can study, it is there. And as I have mentioned before, there is some wiggle room about how much Human Action is causing this rapid change, but none about the change itself. it is difficult for me to believe folks can't get solid data, when it is published in so many Disciplines. Your interpretation might be different, but the base data is there for you to study. Okay, I am done. Sorry about the rant. Science doesn't rest on one pillar. And it keeps asking questions ...so there is no "done deal" new information, new questions.
There are more than five hundred different Specialties studying "Climate Change". Some are studying ice core, soil samples, tree rings, algae blooms, radiation absorption, atmospheric gasses, ocean currents, sea water temperatures, sand shifts from Africa, dust particle circulation, methane pockets, Arctic Sea Ice, AntArctic Shelving, Greenland glacial run off, Atmospheric Rivers, cyclic rotation of dying ocean currents, reflective potential of ice, sea water, and air pollution. And a whole host more Disciplines that are each studying a piece of the collective pie.
And then there are the Meta- Analysis that try and mold these different models into a cohesive whole that is understandable and can make accurate, or at least as accurate they can make them with the data and model runs they have.
And they are getting better with Hurricanes, and worse with Tornadoes, because those things are throwing curve balls at them left and right. No tornado that we have been able to document before the last twenty years, ever stayed on the ground for more than a hundred miles, and covered five states. Nor did F5' s show up frequently. As they get more data, and start to understand the nuances...why the Gulf Stream is moving the way it is, and how that effects the atmospheric rivers dropping tons of water up in our NorthEast, those aren't easy dots to connect.
I went to a Climate Change Conference a few years back. I was invited by a friend who is a Physicist whose expertise is in Heat. And his buddy was a Chemist. The third person in our little four person parade, she was an Astronomer looking for exoplanet atmospheres, trying to learn more about our own planet and what clues it might give her. The fist person I met at that conference was a Fishing boat Captain from Alaska, who also holds a Doctorate in Fish Population Genetics, and apparently hot water isn't so good for fish. So yeah, if you are looking for simple answers, Climate change isn't the place to look. Like how many of you realize the entire infrastructure of septic systems is under assault in Florida and the Gulf coastal areas, and the culprit ...sea level rising. So add Plumbers to the growing list of folks noticing something isn't right.
But if you want tons of data, experiments and computer models, which are all showing that things are changing - and faster than at any period in the History we can study, it is there. And as I have mentioned before, there is some wiggle room about how much Human Action is causing this rapid change, but none about the change itself. it is difficult for me to believe folks can't get solid data, when it is published in so many Disciplines. Your interpretation might be different, but the base data is there for you to study. Okay, I am done. Sorry about the rant. Science doesn't rest on one pillar. And it keeps asking questions ...so there is no "done deal" new information, new questions.
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SGT Kevin Hughes
SFC Bernard Walko - That was a delightful read, and one I fully can grasp in two areas: The difference between people who know what they are talking about, and the folks who think because they are an "expert" in one area, think that means their opinion in other areas carries the same weight. The other is Political funding. I ran into that myself over in Hawaii. As you might be aware, Oahu has not one, but two "Interstate Freeways'" - H1, and H2. Both funded by the Government under the Power of one Senator to get funding. There was no need for one, let alone two. What the Civil Engineers recommended for the long term, was light rail, and strict population limits. This is back when less than a quarter million people lived on the island - which now has a Million folks, the worst traffic in the USA (beating out LA!) and no light rail. They have a very good Public Transit System (The Bus) simply because that is all most Locals can afford.
So I get those points. And the 20 year thing reminds me of Generations. In my HS Biology Class, I asked why is a Generation 20 years? And like you, I either got vague answers, or the old:"It is by convention." The only Climate Change "convention" that I am aware of is when they managed to get any Measurement of change in Average Temperatures to start in 1970. Claiming that the Historical Data that went back to the 1700's wasn't "accurate enough" as they used antiquated equipment and "unacceptable" errors in measurement.
The real reason is much simpler. If they left the Data in before 1970, the record of change in temperatures around the globe becomes even more stark. The Consensus (at the Conference I went to) took the position that there has never been a century long "blip" like the current one. Climate in the global geological sense, moves in cycles, and there are several anomalies, like the mini- ice age that brought brutal Winters down to Paris in the early. So yeah a "weather event" can be a one of, or rare. But when those become more often, closer together and stronger...it raises the "Scientific Eyebrow."
One of the "break out" sessions was how to collaborate, and coordinate Data from five hundred different studies. So there were a lot of "Teams" working on exactly that. What does the reflectivity index of polar ice, have to do with the dust cycle feeding the Amazon from Africa? Without Super Computers, and Meta- analysis Models being fed tons of data, it wouldn't be possible at al. And now, with the refining of AI' technology, they are getting a better "Big Picture" glimpse into a vastly complex global data set.
And that picture, is not good. My own personal opinion is that there is little we can do now. To little to late. The Earth will survive, Humanity will either adapt, or die off (and we are just a blip on the tree of life- hundreds of things have been around much longer than us). The Earth will find someway to recover, if given a chance.
There was not a single Scientist there, who didn't believe in Climate Change being unprecedented- in both how fast, and how powerful the changes are....and they are accelerating. About 10% of them, weren't sure what role Human Activity played, and they showed some models that called into debate putting all the changes into one simple metric like green house gasses. Cow farts (yes, there were several studies on that) being one of the things that could have changed the gas composition of the atmosphere. Another was algae breath ( not the scientific term) But apparently algae affect more than just the oceans. Like you said, it gets complicated fast.
The paradigm shift that stood out to me ( A curious onlooker, not a Professional Scientist) was that all of these brainiacs, see the Earth now as one interconnected system. A closed system. The feedback loops are global. For just one example, not one of the Oceanographers thought of the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, etc Oceans as individual entities. Their paradigm is that there is one Ocean on Earth...and how does it work? They have mapped underwater "Rivers" in much more detail than our old concept of the Gulf Stream and the Humboldt current. Those were both broad strokes and do exist, but how they work as a heat pump, and finding things like underwater waterfall taller than most mountains, or rivers of moisture in the air, that are driven by the evaporation rate of open water...just amazing stuff.
So I content, leaving the Politics and Chicanery by said Elected Officials behind, Climate Change itself, is undeniable. Two million people in the USA have already moved because of Climate, and like I mentioned in my earlier reply the US Military sees that Migration rising up to 40 million to 50 million within two decades. And they consider that a "National Security risk". So yeah, it is real. Can we stop it? Who knows. Did we cause it? The evidence is mounting that we contributed to some of the rapid onset. Who knows how many knock off or downstream effects came from small changes. Heck, most heat in cities comes from parking lots and roofs, and knowing that, we could make changes. Like Chicago did with its roof top gardens. Leaving nature more land and stopping sprawl helps nature recover. My Grandchildren will never see a colder year than the one before - every year of their young lives has been hotter, along with Biblical level Weather events, and that trend will continue. Unabated.
And now I have gone on long enough too!
So I get those points. And the 20 year thing reminds me of Generations. In my HS Biology Class, I asked why is a Generation 20 years? And like you, I either got vague answers, or the old:"It is by convention." The only Climate Change "convention" that I am aware of is when they managed to get any Measurement of change in Average Temperatures to start in 1970. Claiming that the Historical Data that went back to the 1700's wasn't "accurate enough" as they used antiquated equipment and "unacceptable" errors in measurement.
The real reason is much simpler. If they left the Data in before 1970, the record of change in temperatures around the globe becomes even more stark. The Consensus (at the Conference I went to) took the position that there has never been a century long "blip" like the current one. Climate in the global geological sense, moves in cycles, and there are several anomalies, like the mini- ice age that brought brutal Winters down to Paris in the early. So yeah a "weather event" can be a one of, or rare. But when those become more often, closer together and stronger...it raises the "Scientific Eyebrow."
One of the "break out" sessions was how to collaborate, and coordinate Data from five hundred different studies. So there were a lot of "Teams" working on exactly that. What does the reflectivity index of polar ice, have to do with the dust cycle feeding the Amazon from Africa? Without Super Computers, and Meta- analysis Models being fed tons of data, it wouldn't be possible at al. And now, with the refining of AI' technology, they are getting a better "Big Picture" glimpse into a vastly complex global data set.
And that picture, is not good. My own personal opinion is that there is little we can do now. To little to late. The Earth will survive, Humanity will either adapt, or die off (and we are just a blip on the tree of life- hundreds of things have been around much longer than us). The Earth will find someway to recover, if given a chance.
There was not a single Scientist there, who didn't believe in Climate Change being unprecedented- in both how fast, and how powerful the changes are....and they are accelerating. About 10% of them, weren't sure what role Human Activity played, and they showed some models that called into debate putting all the changes into one simple metric like green house gasses. Cow farts (yes, there were several studies on that) being one of the things that could have changed the gas composition of the atmosphere. Another was algae breath ( not the scientific term) But apparently algae affect more than just the oceans. Like you said, it gets complicated fast.
The paradigm shift that stood out to me ( A curious onlooker, not a Professional Scientist) was that all of these brainiacs, see the Earth now as one interconnected system. A closed system. The feedback loops are global. For just one example, not one of the Oceanographers thought of the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, etc Oceans as individual entities. Their paradigm is that there is one Ocean on Earth...and how does it work? They have mapped underwater "Rivers" in much more detail than our old concept of the Gulf Stream and the Humboldt current. Those were both broad strokes and do exist, but how they work as a heat pump, and finding things like underwater waterfall taller than most mountains, or rivers of moisture in the air, that are driven by the evaporation rate of open water...just amazing stuff.
So I content, leaving the Politics and Chicanery by said Elected Officials behind, Climate Change itself, is undeniable. Two million people in the USA have already moved because of Climate, and like I mentioned in my earlier reply the US Military sees that Migration rising up to 40 million to 50 million within two decades. And they consider that a "National Security risk". So yeah, it is real. Can we stop it? Who knows. Did we cause it? The evidence is mounting that we contributed to some of the rapid onset. Who knows how many knock off or downstream effects came from small changes. Heck, most heat in cities comes from parking lots and roofs, and knowing that, we could make changes. Like Chicago did with its roof top gardens. Leaving nature more land and stopping sprawl helps nature recover. My Grandchildren will never see a colder year than the one before - every year of their young lives has been hotter, along with Biblical level Weather events, and that trend will continue. Unabated.
And now I have gone on long enough too!
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SGT Kevin Hughes
SFC Bernard Walko - First, Happy Memorial Day, which is, in itself somewhat of an Oxymoron. We do celebrate the sacrifices of those that gave the most, and (in my family at least) we play and picnic for the Heroes that can't. So I salute you, and your brothers and sisters. Now onto the discussion.
I love Engineers, not because they sound negative, but because their negativity is based on (usually) trying to figure out what went wrong, or how to make it work. And there are Climate Engineers out there. That isn't the name of their Discipline, but it is their defacto occupation
Science, as you know, is messy. Debate is healthy, because when the Science folks interact they are used to debate- one data set might have a stronger link than another. One of the things I have noticed that separates Scientists (and Engineers) from "Normal" people is this. Ask a "normal person" what would change their mind on certain subjects, and the answer is: "Nothing!".
Ask a Scientist or Engineer what would change their mind, and they will tell you exactly what evidence they need to change their mind. And that evidence is usually reliable testable data.
Sarge, the amount of data they are working with now is mind boggling, the connections they are finding are just as stunning. We didn't know even twenty years ago that the Amazon was fed from the dust from West Africa. Nor did we know it wasn't the Earth's lungs, like I was taught. It turns out that is almost a closed system, in that it takes almost everything in that biomass, just to support that system. Nor were we able to track cold and warm (both relative terms in deep water) currents in the Ocean. We can now. As an Engineer, you probably instantly recognized those systems as Heat Pumps.
And as far as I can tell, that second law of Thermodynamics is at the heart of all of it.
The Models are getting better, there is human error and bias, but those get sorted over time- as more data gets collected. A consensus gets formed...and the consensus among the Scientists is that there has never been an anomalous cycle in Geological Time that matches the acceleration we are witnessing. Weather prediction used to be reliable over forty eight hours, five days out, and it was a crap shoot. Ten days out, and you weren't much better than a guess. Then they got doppler refined, so they can even detect vortex generating air currents. Then they added in big picture stuff like ocean and air currents to get longer forecasts. And it worked. Their predictions for hotter, stronger, wetter, and dryer...in general, are turning out to be fairly accurate.
But then, something strange started happening over the last decade. The Models for big storms Hurricanes and Tornadoes...started to fail miserably. At first they thought it was the Models themselves. You Engineer types came in and worked those over, tweaking here and there. Nada. The Models worked as designed. Then they started analyzing the input data...and the culprit turned out to be changes in DATA. Yep.
Rapid intensification wasn't included in the input data, because it never happened before...or so rarely that the Models didn't take it into account. Same with Tornadoes, there were no 'Long form" data sets. Staying on the ground for 100 miles or more, or lasting for hours, not minutes, wasn't in their models. Because it didn't happen before. And again it goes back to heat. There wasn't enough to power these things. There is now, and their models are Adapting. The Number of storms and their intensity predictions over the last decade are remarkably accurate. But the instability and the rapid changes still make the predictions susceptible to chaotic fluctuations. And that is the crux of what the Climate Scientists are sayin. No natural System, can produce changes in mere years or even a generation - with the exception of Volcanoes. (And yes, at the Conference I went to as a Spectator had expert Volcanologists at it too- and those things are monsters for climate emergencies). Over all, it is the accelerated and cumulative effects that are rising the alarm for the Climate Scientists. It is as the term is now bandied about in every discipline- unprecedented.
The Electric Grid is a mess, and that again transfers into another Heat Issue. I remember when Popular Science and Popular Mechanics (way back in the Seventies) both predicted that if the rest of the world caught up to the USA in Energy consumption, the planet would glow like one of those metal prongs you put in charcoal to start your barbecue.
And wouldn't you know it, light pollution and radiant heat, are both areas of study for Climate Scientists. You are spot on with your assessment of EV's. Once again, as we find out the unintended consequences, we don't know how to get rid of the batteries, where are we going to get the rare earths, and what are the long term effects of everyone having one. And that comes into play. People are working on those issues too. It is amazing to me, how complex and interconnected it all gets. And then we got AI. And that could be a better tool for studying all this stuff. But that is another issue.
Sorry about the long winded response! But enjoyed your thoughts.
I love Engineers, not because they sound negative, but because their negativity is based on (usually) trying to figure out what went wrong, or how to make it work. And there are Climate Engineers out there. That isn't the name of their Discipline, but it is their defacto occupation
Science, as you know, is messy. Debate is healthy, because when the Science folks interact they are used to debate- one data set might have a stronger link than another. One of the things I have noticed that separates Scientists (and Engineers) from "Normal" people is this. Ask a "normal person" what would change their mind on certain subjects, and the answer is: "Nothing!".
Ask a Scientist or Engineer what would change their mind, and they will tell you exactly what evidence they need to change their mind. And that evidence is usually reliable testable data.
Sarge, the amount of data they are working with now is mind boggling, the connections they are finding are just as stunning. We didn't know even twenty years ago that the Amazon was fed from the dust from West Africa. Nor did we know it wasn't the Earth's lungs, like I was taught. It turns out that is almost a closed system, in that it takes almost everything in that biomass, just to support that system. Nor were we able to track cold and warm (both relative terms in deep water) currents in the Ocean. We can now. As an Engineer, you probably instantly recognized those systems as Heat Pumps.
And as far as I can tell, that second law of Thermodynamics is at the heart of all of it.
The Models are getting better, there is human error and bias, but those get sorted over time- as more data gets collected. A consensus gets formed...and the consensus among the Scientists is that there has never been an anomalous cycle in Geological Time that matches the acceleration we are witnessing. Weather prediction used to be reliable over forty eight hours, five days out, and it was a crap shoot. Ten days out, and you weren't much better than a guess. Then they got doppler refined, so they can even detect vortex generating air currents. Then they added in big picture stuff like ocean and air currents to get longer forecasts. And it worked. Their predictions for hotter, stronger, wetter, and dryer...in general, are turning out to be fairly accurate.
But then, something strange started happening over the last decade. The Models for big storms Hurricanes and Tornadoes...started to fail miserably. At first they thought it was the Models themselves. You Engineer types came in and worked those over, tweaking here and there. Nada. The Models worked as designed. Then they started analyzing the input data...and the culprit turned out to be changes in DATA. Yep.
Rapid intensification wasn't included in the input data, because it never happened before...or so rarely that the Models didn't take it into account. Same with Tornadoes, there were no 'Long form" data sets. Staying on the ground for 100 miles or more, or lasting for hours, not minutes, wasn't in their models. Because it didn't happen before. And again it goes back to heat. There wasn't enough to power these things. There is now, and their models are Adapting. The Number of storms and their intensity predictions over the last decade are remarkably accurate. But the instability and the rapid changes still make the predictions susceptible to chaotic fluctuations. And that is the crux of what the Climate Scientists are sayin. No natural System, can produce changes in mere years or even a generation - with the exception of Volcanoes. (And yes, at the Conference I went to as a Spectator had expert Volcanologists at it too- and those things are monsters for climate emergencies). Over all, it is the accelerated and cumulative effects that are rising the alarm for the Climate Scientists. It is as the term is now bandied about in every discipline- unprecedented.
The Electric Grid is a mess, and that again transfers into another Heat Issue. I remember when Popular Science and Popular Mechanics (way back in the Seventies) both predicted that if the rest of the world caught up to the USA in Energy consumption, the planet would glow like one of those metal prongs you put in charcoal to start your barbecue.
And wouldn't you know it, light pollution and radiant heat, are both areas of study for Climate Scientists. You are spot on with your assessment of EV's. Once again, as we find out the unintended consequences, we don't know how to get rid of the batteries, where are we going to get the rare earths, and what are the long term effects of everyone having one. And that comes into play. People are working on those issues too. It is amazing to me, how complex and interconnected it all gets. And then we got AI. And that could be a better tool for studying all this stuff. But that is another issue.
Sorry about the long winded response! But enjoyed your thoughts.
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SGT Kevin Hughes
SFC Bernard Walko - and the memory side we share similar experiences. I took my bride Kathy up to my old hometown to show her all the lakes I used to lifeguard at: Wildwood Lake, Crystal Lake, Euclid Beach – they are all private now. Wildwood Lake, which used to have about 7 to 9000 people come on a weekend is now owned by a single rich guy and his family of three. That kind of pisses me off. He told everybody he was gonna leave it open for the public, but as soon as the sale went through, he reneged on his word.
As far as the tornado tracking goes the people I know they do this for a living actually track the areas and it doesn’t matter about the population. They’re hitting population areas just as much as unpopulated areas, but they track when it touches to when it leaves and I don’t believe that ability was there 20 years ago. So yeah we have to agree to disagree but I will tell you they are getting better and better data and more and more sophisticated ways to integrate that data. They’ve left me way behind. Smiles and happy memorial day
As far as the tornado tracking goes the people I know they do this for a living actually track the areas and it doesn’t matter about the population. They’re hitting population areas just as much as unpopulated areas, but they track when it touches to when it leaves and I don’t believe that ability was there 20 years ago. So yeah we have to agree to disagree but I will tell you they are getting better and better data and more and more sophisticated ways to integrate that data. They’ve left me way behind. Smiles and happy memorial day
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