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Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
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Your thoughts and mine are pretty much in lockstep to the point that I looked in and posted the UN time-line on Korea yesterday. Technically the UN didn't commit troops until Seoul fell to the North Koreans so following that precedent we would have to see Kyiv fall before the UN would consider military action. The problem is the UN is a bunch of politicians and diplomats who have the mindset of those in Foggy Bottom, not the Pentagon.
The oil thing you bring up is comical in a way. We do not import Russian oil because we needed it but rather in support of a global economy, something that the previous administration had no concept of. Russian actions have pretty much turned that economy upside down and western companies that worked with Russia in the oil industry have withdrawn, or are in the process of withdrawing, their participation. Like a ship you don't stop the global flow of Russian oil on a dime, but it's happening.
Alliances aside, Russia and China traditionally hate each other so some short term so called alliance has the lasting power of an agreement written on toilet paper. We will support Taiwan, but China is savvy enough to not go after it in a Putin style action. How China goes about economic and real estate development on Taiwan should be of more concern than worry about military action there.
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Sgt Commander, Dav Chapter #90
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Excellent comments Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen! The Russia/China scenario you mention seems right, although I still think there will be some level of military action on Taiwan, but China will use mostly the economic process as they are currently doing in Australia...
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Patricia Overmeyer
Patricia Overmeyer
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Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen: Xi punked Putin big time. When Xi and Putin met at the Olympics and they signed their joint agreement, XI mostly was not about to slit his own throat for Putin in Xi's quest for world domination. Xi likely wanted to see what the West's reaction (EU, USA, Australia, etc.) would be to a land war and Putin gave him the opportunity to find out. Hence Xi's statement bout the right of countries to stop "an invasion of sovereignty" yada, yada, yada. Xi also probably knew that the West would impose serious economic sanctions on Russia, thus making China about the only country Putin will be able to trade with. That gives China tremendous power over Putin...much more than Xi already had. About the only thing Xi really needs out of Russia is wheat and oil. But Xi can extract a heavy price for Russia to pay, i.e. that wheat and oil are going to be really cheap on the market. Then throw in the fact this also gives Xi the ability to see exactly what Putin's military is capable of doing.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/02/12/breaking-down-that-putin-xi-joint-statement-on-a-new-era/
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Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
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Patricia Overmeyer Agree that Xi is learning a lot more about Russian ability than the reaction of the West
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Patricia Overmeyer
Patricia Overmeyer
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Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen - I think Xi was aware that there would be some condemnation and economic sanctions from the West but I don't think he knew the exact extent of it. This gives him much more insight into that area. Putin didn't think that through, mostly because he believes his own propaganda and Fox News talking heads (which are regularly appearing on RT, Sputnik, etc.) that were propping him up.
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PO2 Marco Monsalve
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Agree with you Sgt (Join to see) I believe China is playing a larger role in this than anyone cares to admit and they are watching what a politically divided US is capable of doing given that division. The repeated talk and spectre of nuclear arms is a traditional go-to of Russian foreign policy, because Russia knows that it gets attention. If Putin gets backed into a corner will he go there? If so, will he limit it to tactical nukes as is written in their nuclear policy to end a conventional war? In terms of the UN, it is a nice resolution with no teeth or ability to enforce. I'm sure China and Taiwan are looking to see if we honor our treaty obligations if NATO Article 5 is triggered by Russian actions. No easy answers and I just hope if it comes to action we put aside our political divide and come together as a nation.
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Sgt Commander, Dav Chapter #90
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Excellent comments, PO2 Marco Monsalve, Thank you for your cogent input!
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LT Mike Folker
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The major media networks--yes, ALL of them--seem devoted only to creating & presenting heroes & villains; IOW, producing celebrities of some sort. This draws readers, viewers. General history is ignored or suppressed.
As for Ukraine, it's been a punching bag for Russia since the 18th century when Prussia & Russia started carving up the Kingdom of Poland; parts of Baltic countries, Belarus, Moldova, Poland, Ukraine were alternately subsumed into Prussia/Russia; until Prussia was squeezed into a unified Germany in the 1870s. Even in the 1920s, Poland invaded Ukraine.
Energy independence, the U.N.?: These are the bailiwicks of oligarchs of all stripes. The U.N. has never been anything but a referee among nations: General Assembly, Security Council issue their edicts that have little effect: "Well, we did what we could!" Enough people profit from the current state of energy interdependence to ensure no independence shall happen.
But the media outlets reduce all to Biden, Putin, Trump (apparently just in case the latter really still is the Pres.). Unfortunately, Putin one-ups the other two & almost every other hero & villain because his life has genuinely been in danger; our two leisure class guys can only deliver the occasional hand-wringer.
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