Posted on Dec 10, 2021
What Russia might do in Ukraine: 5 scenarios - Breaking Defense
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With Russian troops amassed on Ukraine’s eastern border, US and NATO officials are watching nervously what Russian President Vladimir Putin might do next. Will he heed US warnings not to further invade the former Soviet state? Or is a new, widespread bloody offensive for territory looming? In this op-ed, the Heritage Foundation’s Luke Coffey argues that question is an oversimplification, and Putin has many more options on the table.
Ukraine is at a tipping point, and its ongoing national struggle will determine whether its future geopolitical orientation tilts toward the West or Moscow. The outcome will have long-term implications for the transatlantic community and the notion of national sovereignty.
Since 2014, Russia has illegally occupied almost 5% of Ukraine’s landmass and more than half of its coastline. In eastern Ukraine, Russia and Russian-backed separatists continue to propagate a war that has resulted in more than 13,000 lives lost and 30,000 wounded, heavily damaging the Ukrainian economy and slowing Ukraine’s progress toward deepening ties with the West.
Ukraine is at a tipping point, and its ongoing national struggle will determine whether its future geopolitical orientation tilts toward the West or Moscow. The outcome will have long-term implications for the transatlantic community and the notion of national sovereignty.
Since 2014, Russia has illegally occupied almost 5% of Ukraine’s landmass and more than half of its coastline. In eastern Ukraine, Russia and Russian-backed separatists continue to propagate a war that has resulted in more than 13,000 lives lost and 30,000 wounded, heavily damaging the Ukrainian economy and slowing Ukraine’s progress toward deepening ties with the West.
What Russia might do in Ukraine: 5 scenarios - Breaking Defense
Posted from breakingdefense.com
Ukraine
Russia
Strategy
Defense
Edited 3 y ago
Posted 3 y ago
Responses: 4
Suspended Profile
Perhaps Russia felt short changed when the ussr fell. Scary stuff. American lives are precious but we will sacrifice to defend how you want to live your life.
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We will go to war if Russia invades Ukraine. I don't see any other scenario. Russia invades, Baltic States and Poland invoke Article 5 of NATO treaty, we send troops to reinforce, Russia interprets it as a move towards war and premptively strikes Poland or Baltic States or both. It's a huge mistake of Biden to believe that we would be able to live with a Russian invasion of Ukraine and he should have stated that verbally. Huge mistake of Putin to think we will not fulfill NATO commitments to Poland or Baltic States and that we would ever give Russia veto power over who joints NATO.
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well, you do not bring that many troop for nothing. I hope he just leaves this alone and does not start anything.
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SPC Erich Guenther
He will, he already has misjudged the resolve of NATO and you can see it in his verbage. He thinks he can invade Ukraine and there will not be a military response, he is wrong and it will escalate from there. Biden should have been more forceful in his warnings but faltered and it is being interpreted by Moscow that Ukraine can be invaded without much cost.
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