Posted on Sep 7, 2021
Is Pakistan the victor in Afghanistan, or a part of its spoils?
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Three sets of events last week highlight Pakistan’s special importance in Afghanistan after the Taliban victory. One was the appearance of Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, the chief of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, in Kabul. Another was a (virtual) meeting of top regional diplomats from Afghanistan’s neighbours (Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and China) convened by Pakistan’s special representative on Afghanistan, Mohammed Sadiq. Meanwhile, many major regional and international leaders interested in Afghanistan are picking up the phone to call Prime Minister Imran Khan or contact the Army chief, General Qamar Jawed Bajwa. Delhi should expect even more Pakistan-centred political and diplomatic activity on Afghanistan in the days ahead.
Does this intense activity translate into concrete outcomes in favour of Pakistan? Frenzied motion does not always compute as purposeful movement. Pakistan has an uphill task in converting its tactical advantages in Afghanistan into strategic gains.
Geography has given Pakistan a pivotal role in Afghanistan. Yet, Rawalpindi has been unable to turn it into sustainable political sway over Afghanistan. Neither the creation of Afghan proxies nor the massive assistance from the great powers has helped Pakistan transcend its structural limitations in Afghanistan. The story this time is unlikely to be any different.
Does this intense activity translate into concrete outcomes in favour of Pakistan? Frenzied motion does not always compute as purposeful movement. Pakistan has an uphill task in converting its tactical advantages in Afghanistan into strategic gains.
Geography has given Pakistan a pivotal role in Afghanistan. Yet, Rawalpindi has been unable to turn it into sustainable political sway over Afghanistan. Neither the creation of Afghan proxies nor the massive assistance from the great powers has helped Pakistan transcend its structural limitations in Afghanistan. The story this time is unlikely to be any different.
Is Pakistan the victor in Afghanistan, or a part of its spoils?
Posted from indianexpress.comPosted in these groups: 
Afghanistan
Pakistan
Afghanistan Pakistan
Posted 3 y ago
Responses: 3
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Interesting. Being written from an Indian perspective (for a predominantly Indian audience), the author is clearly relying on an unstated assumption that Pakistan's strategic goals regarding Afghanistan are similar to what an Indian government would try to achieve in Pakistan's place.
That's a major flaw in his analysis, because it ignores the deeply cultural nature of Pakistan's actions regarding Afghanistan for the last 4 decades. General Zia's still-enduring primary goal of driving degenerately secular culture (and government) out of the Islamic lands has always carried greater weight in Pakistan's Afghan strategy than seeking approval from non-Islamic governments.
Like the U.S., Pakistan cares less about what Afghanistan becomes than what it mustn't become, and for the Pakis an increasingly secular Afghanistan is intolerable. Almost as intolerable would be an Iranian-dominated Afghanistan. Measure their decisions by a policy of containment directed at non-believers and Persians and not only do their decisions make more sense, it looks like they're achieving their goals.
That's a major flaw in his analysis, because it ignores the deeply cultural nature of Pakistan's actions regarding Afghanistan for the last 4 decades. General Zia's still-enduring primary goal of driving degenerately secular culture (and government) out of the Islamic lands has always carried greater weight in Pakistan's Afghan strategy than seeking approval from non-Islamic governments.
Like the U.S., Pakistan cares less about what Afghanistan becomes than what it mustn't become, and for the Pakis an increasingly secular Afghanistan is intolerable. Almost as intolerable would be an Iranian-dominated Afghanistan. Measure their decisions by a policy of containment directed at non-believers and Persians and not only do their decisions make more sense, it looks like they're achieving their goals.
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