FY2015 Force Army Force Reduction

http://www.armytimes.com/article/20141026/CAREERS/310260022/Personnel-chief-Army-may-drawing-down-too-fast?sf33018561=1

"Those screenings will include Selective Early Retirement Boards, or SERBs, for Army Competitive Category colonels and lieutenant colonels in November, and an Officer Separation board for ACC captains in September. Seamands said the Army remains committed to a policy of not hitting year groups more than once for a retention review, “but if we have to do any force shaping, we will do that through the promotion process,” in which officers who are consecutively passed over for advancement to the same rank will be subject to involuntary separation."

SERBs for colonels and lieutenant colonels in November 2014, officer separation board (OSB) for captains in September 2015.

Regarding OSB for captains, it seems the Army did not learn much from the last round of OSB, at least not as far as the messaging behind the OSB (why call it a separation board versus a retention board?) We'll see if the Army does a better job of lacking transparency, noting that the only reason there was any amount of transparency to the last round of OSBs was because a powerpoint briefing leaked out of HRC. Expect another round of media stories next fall/winter when the OSB results are released.

Regarding SERB for O-6 and O-5, the Army seems to be on the right track here. But from what I understood during the last O-6 and O-5 SERB, the reason so few O-6 and O-5 were selected was because officers at risk were counselled and it was suggested to them that they should request voluntary retirement versus go through the SERB. With a previous SERB and increased retirement for O-6 and O-5 last year, perhaps the FY15 SERB for O-5 and O-6 will generate increased dissonance from more senior leaders, although I'd expect most O-5 and O-6 selected for SERB to be quite content, given that they'll just be asked to retire with full benefits.

Not targeting a year group twice for OSB is welcome news for those of us targeted in the last round. But one does think that the promotion boards will now serve as a type of OSB for previously OSB'd year groups, given the return to "normal" low promotion rates.

The Under Secretary of the Army Brad Carson's comments on the changes needed to the Army's retention and promotion system are welcome and seem to be good news. "We have a system in place that is archaic, that now works against us rather than helping us...." The system, with the "up or out" way of doing business, has been "universally criticized" by "every single person who has looked at it," he said.

I'd suspect that the year groups targeted for OSB in the last round, and those year groups targeted for OSB in September 2015, would definitely agree. The system is broken, and needs to be fixed. OSB/SERB is a technique, and arguably effective/ineffective, but the point that Carson is making is that the system is broken. OSB/SERB is not going to fix the system.