What will be the nature of our future operational environment?

The Army recently published TRADOC Pamphlet 525-3-7, the Army Human Dimension Concept. In my opinion, the question that this document seeks to define is, "What are the knowledge, skills, and abilities that our future force requires in order to sustain our competitive advantage in the global arena?"

In order to answer that question, we must first identify the nature of our operational environment. For example, are we more likely to face hybrid warfare such as the initial invasion of Iraq, in which we faced a conventional force that quickly dissolved into an insurgency? Are we committed to a policy of Security Force Assistance, similar to active defense, in which small groups of advisors partner with foreign security forces in order to build partnerships; thereby, preventing acts of aggression on American soil? Or, are we more likely to face major combat operations with near peer competitors such as China or Russia?

Once we have defined our future operational environment, then we will be better postured to align our training and development programs in the institutional domain that will provide our future operating force with the knowledge, skills, and abilities to maintain adaptility and sustain our military superiority.

This question is fraught with many potentialities, and several future topics to explore should arise from this discussion. However, the intent of this discussion is to elicit debate on the nature of our future operational environment.