Posted on Oct 13, 2023
SSG Carlos Madden
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There are a lot of possible outcomes but from your personal perspective, what will the new status quo look like for Israel and the world in 2024?
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Responses: 7
COL Randall C.
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Edited 1 y ago
Very few people doubt that it is going to escalate before the possibility of de-escalation would even be considered by Israel. With a death toll on Israel's side going north of 1,300 currently, my view is that Israel isn't going to stop until the long-term threat is removed, and in their eyes, that is the removal of Hamas completely ("defeat them to death").

Anyone that has a view that they will go back to a status-quo is gravely mistaken.

How far will Israel go in attaining this goal? Right now the view is 'utter annihilation'. Depending how this next stage goes, will determine that.

I believe that after the Hamas attacks, Israel is at the point of "If you're not with us, you're against us" and if international support turned to condemnation (they likely could care less about the negative comments from the Muslim world and the UN .. they're probably used to it by now), it likely won't have any impact to future courses of actions for them.

If other countries get involved and start splitting Israel's forces - that could have an impact depending on how much it causes resources to be reallocated to meet the other threat. Unless there is a determined ground incursion to Israel, there probably won't be one.

From the statements of support coming out of this administration and (most) politicians on both sides of the aisle, the United States is backing Israel in "doing what they got to do" against Hamas. Will that support still be there if there are thousands (tens of thousands?) of civilians deaths? Time will tell.

As the great master of strategy and scholar of the human mind, Charlie Chaplain, said, "Words are cheap. The biggest thing you can say is 'elephant'".
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Maj Air Force Spectrum Management Office Deputy Division Chief
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There is no doubt that Israel will strike back; however, I believe that Israel has the same problem that the US had in Vietnam - but worse. In Vietnam we couldn't isolate the enemy and the Vietcong were not apposed to sacrificing any and all to avoid being identified. We have already seen that Hamas plays by the same set of rules as the Vietcong, and it is in question that they(Hamas) will, without hesitation, set up headquarters, caches, and weapons of war in hospitals, orphanages, schools, and religious locations as a means to avoid being attacked. This means it is going to get ugly fast since there is no such thing as a proportional response. I believe Israel is going in with or without support from other nations and I also believe that Iran may try and support Hamas but will be getting pressure from China and Russia to stay out. The linchpin to how bad it gets rests on Iran, if they assist escalation increases quickly and in order to avoid that situation, I hope that Israel retaliates with the same proportion response as the US with the Korean axe murder incident of August 1976. Something worth looking up but needless to say the response was both effective, abundant, and overly proportional.
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Edited 1 y ago
Israel has long been in an ongoing state of existential threat, threatened by surrounding states and actors trying to deny Israel their right to sovereignty. Does anyone think Israel desires a return to this type of status quo that leaves their future generations even less secure against determined enemies? A path of fear and at the mercy of existential threats? That's not the message they're sending--they are going to fight for their future generations. It's anyone's guess at how un-pretty this is going to be.
SP5 John Burleson
SP5 John Burleson
1 y
I generally agree with the comments made. However, as much as I would like to see Israel kill cook and eat every Hamas animal on the planet my realistic bone is tingling telling me that somewhere halfway through their assault the rest of the world will heat a bunch of bullshit on them and they will say oh okay and quit. Israel, if you're reading this do not stop. When God created the first Arab he jumped on a horse and galloped across the desert looking for the second Arab so he could kill him
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