What Everyone Gets Wrong about China Invading Taiwan

LTC Eugene Chu Interesting Discussion!

Two issues. (1) The real bargaining friction lies in the Hong Kong experience. Hong Kong was given a measure of autonomy in exchange for a peaceful occupation by China. China ultimately reneged on that promise once they were confident in their ability to quell any opposition. No rational person on Taiwan can miss that historical lesson. (2) Although Russia was enticed into their military misadventure in Ukraine by America's apparent lack of leadership, they were surprised by an unexpected solidarity in the ranks of NATO. NATO is also making noises that they would extend their sphere of influence to Taiwan and China would then face a determined response to any military misadventure that they might launch into Taiwan. Taiwan is, after all, a major trading partner with most of NATO. China's should be hesitant to confront NATO inasmuch as their military has proven almost as ineffectual as Russia's in their confrontations with India.