Posted on May 25, 2020
COVID-19 is killing 20 times more people per week than flu does, new paper says
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We've seen a lot on how deadly COVID-19 is and isn't. It is clearly much more deadly than the normal flu, but how deadly is it?
It's still hard to say but we've been comparing hard data from dead certificates for COVID-19 against estimates from the CDC for flu deaths. This paper compares raw data from death certificates listing COVID-19 as a contributor to death to raw data from death certificates listing influenza as a contributing factor. The authors did point out several limiting factors just based on the data that is normally collected for the two events but they tried to do a more "apples to apples" comparison.
"Based on data from death certificates, during the deadliest week of flu season over the last several years, the counted number of U.S. deaths due to flu ranged from 351 during the 2015 to 2016 flu season to 1,626 during the 2017 to 2018 flu season, the authors said. The average number of flu deaths during the week of peak flu mortality in recent seasons (from 2013 to 2020) was 752 deaths.
In contrast, for COVID-19, there were 15,455 deaths reported in the U.S. during the week ending April 21 (the highest weekly death toll during the pandemic so far) the authors said."
It's still hard to say but we've been comparing hard data from dead certificates for COVID-19 against estimates from the CDC for flu deaths. This paper compares raw data from death certificates listing COVID-19 as a contributor to death to raw data from death certificates listing influenza as a contributing factor. The authors did point out several limiting factors just based on the data that is normally collected for the two events but they tried to do a more "apples to apples" comparison.
"Based on data from death certificates, during the deadliest week of flu season over the last several years, the counted number of U.S. deaths due to flu ranged from 351 during the 2015 to 2016 flu season to 1,626 during the 2017 to 2018 flu season, the authors said. The average number of flu deaths during the week of peak flu mortality in recent seasons (from 2013 to 2020) was 752 deaths.
In contrast, for COVID-19, there were 15,455 deaths reported in the U.S. during the week ending April 21 (the highest weekly death toll during the pandemic so far) the authors said."
COVID-19 is killing 20 times more people per week than flu does, new paper says
Posted from livescience.comPosted in these groups: 
Coronavirus COVID19
Coronavirus COVID19
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 2
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Interesting read. Not sure we have all the data to make real determinations. May be a decade before we do...
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LTC (Join to see)
Capt Gregory Prickett Absolutely not true. We don’t have the data due to under-reporting of flu and over-reporting of COVID as cause of death.
Flu is not a reportable disease and frequently is not listed as a primary cause of death - sequelae of flu (pneumonia, multi-organ failure, exacerbation of a chronic disease, others) are more frequently the primary CoD.
There is a financial incentive (via the CARES Act) for hospitals to report COVID as diagnosis and CoD. Therefore, the patient in hospice who would have died of cancer last week (regardless of infection status) is (unnecessarily) tested for COVID at time of death. If positive, it’s listed as CoD.
We don’t currently have the data. Wait a decade.
Flu is not a reportable disease and frequently is not listed as a primary cause of death - sequelae of flu (pneumonia, multi-organ failure, exacerbation of a chronic disease, others) are more frequently the primary CoD.
There is a financial incentive (via the CARES Act) for hospitals to report COVID as diagnosis and CoD. Therefore, the patient in hospice who would have died of cancer last week (regardless of infection status) is (unnecessarily) tested for COVID at time of death. If positive, it’s listed as CoD.
We don’t currently have the data. Wait a decade.
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LTC (Join to see)
Capt Gregory Prickett First line of my previous response should read “Absolutely NOT true.” Sorry, for the confusion - typing on my phone w/o my cheaters.
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LTC (Join to see)
Capt Gregory Prickett CDC flu data is derived from insurance billing data (as flu is not reportable). I only test a fraction of my patients I suspect of having flu. The majority (>90%) I diagnose with “Upper Respiratory Infection” and treat empirically. Only test for flu if insurance requires a positive test to justify antiviral Rx (rare); patients who require admission (always); and as a rule out for those who aren’t as easily diagnosed (common).
That’s standard practice around the country...hence significant under reporting of flu.
That’s standard practice around the country...hence significant under reporting of flu.
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