China’s Military Could Turn Small Clashes Into Major Conflicts

Relations between the United States and China are fraught, with escalating rhetoric and risk of miscalculation on both sides. Military affairs aren’t the only aspect of the bilateral relationship—but they’re the most dangerous one. As China’s security presence expands to follow its economic interests, the two militaries will come into more and more frequent contact.

But the big question is: Who is in charge over on the Chinese side? Chinese President Xi Jinping has put considerable effort into shoring up Chinese Communist Party (CCP) control of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)—but as with any military, there’s a big gulf between the intrigues at the top and the grunts at the bottom. When a game of maritime chicken results in ships colliding or a border argument escalates to gunfire, who is making the decisions that follow, and that could escalate, with horrific consequences? Is the PLA capable, or even interested, in defusing and avoiding dangerous low-level encounters? Or will a combination of increasing confidence and fervent nationalism result in catastrophic miscalculation?