Scientists warned us about monkeypox in 1988. Here's why they were right.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/05/27/ [login to see] /scientists-warned-us-about-monkeypox-in-1988-heres-why-they-were-right
Back in 1988, scientists in London almost seem to have had a crystal ball.

Writing in the International Journal of Epidemiology, they made a bold – and surprisingly prescient – prediction about monkeypox: Over time, "the average magnitude and duration of monkeypox epidemics will increase," they wrote.

At the time, monkeypox was an extremely rare disease. Health-care workers detected only a few cases a year in West and Central Africa. People caught the disease almost exclusively from rodents or primates and then spread the virus to only a few people. Transmission between people was limited.

But the foresighted scientists warned that, over time, these sporadic outbreaks would grow in size and spread geographically. "In every monkeypox paper on previous outbreaks, there's always a warning about how we need to prepare for more outbreaks in the future," says infectious disease doctor Boghuma Titanji of Emory University. "That prediction has actually borne out."

Back in the 1990s, there were only about 50 monkeypox cases a year in West and Central Africa. Jump ahead 20 years, and in 2020, there were likely more than 5,000 cases, scientists reported in February.