Posted on Mar 9, 2022
Stalled and frustrated, Putin will likely 'double down' in the coming weeks, CIA says
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https://www.npr.org/2022/03/08/ [login to see] /cia-director-putin-is-angry-and-frustrated-likely-to-double-down
It seems likely he will double down in the sort term and this will be bad for Ukrainian civilians. Putin won't give up quickly. The largest thing Putin will get out of this is the knowledge that his military isn't ready for prime time, at all. I see there is a reasonable chance that Putin will not be able to take all of Ukraine and will have to claim victory where they are, along with a long and protracted insurgency.
This may be remembered in the same way as the Winter War.
"The CIA director said Putin premised his war on four false assumptions: He thought Ukraine was weak, he believed Europe was distracted and wouldn't mount a strong response, he thought Russia's economy was prepared to withstand sanctions and he believed Russia's military had been modernized and would fight effectively."
It seems likely he will double down in the sort term and this will be bad for Ukrainian civilians. Putin won't give up quickly. The largest thing Putin will get out of this is the knowledge that his military isn't ready for prime time, at all. I see there is a reasonable chance that Putin will not be able to take all of Ukraine and will have to claim victory where they are, along with a long and protracted insurgency.
This may be remembered in the same way as the Winter War.
"The CIA director said Putin premised his war on four false assumptions: He thought Ukraine was weak, he believed Europe was distracted and wouldn't mount a strong response, he thought Russia's economy was prepared to withstand sanctions and he believed Russia's military had been modernized and would fight effectively."
Stalled and frustrated, Putin will likely 'double down' in the coming weeks, CIA says
Posted from npr.org
Ukraine
Russia
Vladimir Putin
Posted >1 y ago
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SPC Kevin Ford
CW4 Guy Butler
What I'm keeping my eye on is the maps in this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine
Also this with Nord Stream being shut down:
"Ukraine remains the main transit route for Russian natural gas sold to Europe, which earns Ukraine about $3 billion a year in transit fees, making it the country's most lucrative export service.[3] Following Russia's launch of the Nord Stream pipeline, which bypasses Ukraine, gas transit volumes have been steadily decreasing.[3] In 2004 more than 120 bcm of Russian gas was transported through Ukraine; this figure dropped to just 84 bcm in 2012.[3]"
What I'm keeping my eye on is the maps in this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine
Also this with Nord Stream being shut down:
"Ukraine remains the main transit route for Russian natural gas sold to Europe, which earns Ukraine about $3 billion a year in transit fees, making it the country's most lucrative export service.[3] Following Russia's launch of the Nord Stream pipeline, which bypasses Ukraine, gas transit volumes have been steadily decreasing.[3] In 2004 more than 120 bcm of Russian gas was transported through Ukraine; this figure dropped to just 84 bcm in 2012.[3]"
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