UN: Over 10,000 Islamic State Fighters Active in Iraq, Syria

Fake news! Trump defeated ISIS.

We’re down to a very small number of soldiers in Iraq now. We defeated the ISIS caliphate in Iraq and Syria, and it’s — that has been defeated very strongly, and it does have a different feeling to it now that you’ve got it. We had it at 98 percent, and we said, “Well, we can leave.” And then, everybody said, “Would you bring it to 100 percent?” Then we brought it 100 percent.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-prime-minister-mustafa-al-kadhimi-republic-iraq-bilateral-meeting/

Just some thoughts although I am no expert.
- I think Iraq will be ok. It seems to have a national identity.
- Syria is a mess. It is a mini WWIII.
- Decentralized ISIS means it is like playing whack a mole. It is easier to destroy a centralized organization.

My Kurdish sources within the YPJ are saying ISIS is indeed bigger now than it was some six years ago. However the Kurds have about 45K troops in Syria with roughly 30% being YPJ (female fighters).
While the Kurdish troop strength looks like a positive development it truly only adds to the already complicated dynamics of the battle space in Northern Syria as Russian, Syrian and other proxies are all working in the same region.

In addition to all the divergent military objectives what is more troubling is Syria's economy. It is in real danger of clasping. Turkey is slowly transition the areas it controls off the Syrian Pound and onto the the Turkish Lira. This is undermining Assad's control of the economy as such the hyper inflation there is a serious problem as one months pay is the equivalent to one watermelon.

As the Syria economy worsens the response of Assad has become less predictable as the unrest grows. As such the fighting is far from over in Syria if anything its beginning to escalate.

Even if all the fighting were to magically cease there is the daunting task of rebuilding - which no one seems interested in funding or assisting with - not even Russia - as that cost is well over 100 billion and return on investment is dependent on Syria economic recovery which has been hampered by economic sanctions dished out for "war crimes".

The attached is a current view of what it looks like in Syria.
On August 5th a tribal leader was assassinated. Matshar Hammoud Al-Hafl was from the Ekaydat tribe in Northern Syria. It appears that ISIS cells have adopted a new strategy in attacking tribal dignitaries and elders. It is reported that ISIS gunmen opened fire on a vehicle carrying dignitaries of Ekaydat tribe on the outskirts of the Hawayij village in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor. The attack left the driver and the uncle of the Ekaydat tribe’s elder dead, while the brother of the tribe’s elder injured. So its clear ISIS is still engaging in armed conflict and is rather strategically creating political unrest. The so called defeat of ISIS is very disingenuous especially for those still bearing the burden of their existence. To further illustrate the complex dynamics is in that the attack took place in SDF-held areas however the injured persons were actually hospitalized in Al-Mayadeen a city controlled by regime forces. The tribe has giving a one month demand yet not sure how they will respond if no one gets arrested for this attack. However I suspect it will be violent in nature.

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/syria-situation-report-august-5-18-2020
https://www.syriahr.com/en/178282/