Posted on Mar 18, 2020
In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data
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If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.
In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data
Posted from statnews.comPosted in these groups: 
Coronavirus COVID19
Health
Coronavirus COVID19 Health
Posted >1 y ago
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There is an article out there that they commissioned a study using Italy, China and South Korea, This think tank was given 4 scenarios, from do nothing to complete shut down, we are currently at the 3rd level. That data was then used to estimate deaths for each level. According to the think tank the do nothing level would end with and estimated 2.4 million deaths. But another scholar says this data is flawed since Italy is the oldest in population age country in Europe this a high death rate, China is not actually know as having a superior medical treatment for their population. So who knows what or who we should be listening to.
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