Posted on Feb 28, 2020
Trump says U.S. will sign Afghanistan peace deal with Taliban, first step in bringing troops...
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I don't know if it is realistic to prevent the Afghan government from negotiating. It is a 3 way contract and the third party has no input. I just posted about Afghanistan so I will copy and paste here.
You will be focused on training tactical tasks, but I want to describe the strategic environment you will face. It is food for thought. I firmly believe if we leave, there will be a civil war. Here are my thoughts regarding the military problems and strategic problems we encounter in Afghanistan:
- We often don't know where and who the Taliban are.
- To maneuver on the ground with vehicles requires flat land which is also the low land. The Taliban will occupy and fight from the high ground.
- If we don't occupy the land, the Taliban can occupy it, giving them the freedom to maneuver.
- It is impossible to provide security to most Afghans, so locals are often under Taliban control.
- The Taliban will use asymmetric warfare, thus giving them the element of surprise.
- It is impossible to control the country considering the size of it.
- Using a more flexible ROE will not impact the war. The Soviets were absolutely vicious but still lost the war.
- The true strength of the Taliban is their religion and desire to implement Sharia law. Ideology is immensely difficult to combat.
THERE IS A TRINITY TO WAR TO HELP DEFINE IT. It consists of the military acumen, passion of the people, and legitimate government. I would like you to remember this Trinity.
- Military's Acumen: How effective is the Afghan military?
- Passion of the People: Will the passion of the people rise to the occasion to oust the Taliban? I say not. The Taliban control vast areas of the country.
- Legitimacy of the Government: Do Afghans consider the government legitimate? Is the government for the people? Is it corrupt? Does it govern rationally?
Now that I have discussed the trinity. I tell you to apply the trinity to the American Independence of War. Then you will see the validity of the trinity.
I hope this makes you a better NCO and trainer. Tactical units rarely get a strategic perspective, and I hope this will make you a more rounded warrior.
You will be focused on training tactical tasks, but I want to describe the strategic environment you will face. It is food for thought. I firmly believe if we leave, there will be a civil war. Here are my thoughts regarding the military problems and strategic problems we encounter in Afghanistan:
- We often don't know where and who the Taliban are.
- To maneuver on the ground with vehicles requires flat land which is also the low land. The Taliban will occupy and fight from the high ground.
- If we don't occupy the land, the Taliban can occupy it, giving them the freedom to maneuver.
- It is impossible to provide security to most Afghans, so locals are often under Taliban control.
- The Taliban will use asymmetric warfare, thus giving them the element of surprise.
- It is impossible to control the country considering the size of it.
- Using a more flexible ROE will not impact the war. The Soviets were absolutely vicious but still lost the war.
- The true strength of the Taliban is their religion and desire to implement Sharia law. Ideology is immensely difficult to combat.
THERE IS A TRINITY TO WAR TO HELP DEFINE IT. It consists of the military acumen, passion of the people, and legitimate government. I would like you to remember this Trinity.
- Military's Acumen: How effective is the Afghan military?
- Passion of the People: Will the passion of the people rise to the occasion to oust the Taliban? I say not. The Taliban control vast areas of the country.
- Legitimacy of the Government: Do Afghans consider the government legitimate? Is the government for the people? Is it corrupt? Does it govern rationally?
Now that I have discussed the trinity. I tell you to apply the trinity to the American Independence of War. Then you will see the validity of the trinity.
I hope this makes you a better NCO and trainer. Tactical units rarely get a strategic perspective, and I hope this will make you a more rounded warrior.
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Lets hope this time it works out for all parties concerned. Our original argument was never with the Taliban but with their choice to shelter a group that had launched a major attack on the United States without any prejudice. Hopefully as well we won't turn our back on the country as we did after the Russians left and cause it again to flounder and drift.
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