108 F-35s Will Not Be Combat Capable | RealClearDefense

They are not expected to work - here's an oldie but a goodie...

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I learned a new word today - No, not THAT word...my father was using that one around me from an early age.

The word I learned was "concurrency." I learned that in the weapons procurement sector it is defined as "buying something you've not finished testing." You are basically producing something concurrent to testing it. At least a half dozen sources (including the GAO) are in agreement that this one practice accounts for the lion's share of the enormous cost problems that have made the F-35 the most expensive weapons program in history. While "trying to combine the jobs of several different aircraft" does play a part in it, far and away concurrency is the primary culprit. "Production aircraft" roll off the line alongside of test aircraft, and with each flaw found, those "production aircraft" are either scrapped, or rebuilt, or otherwise modified. This costs literally trillions in this specific case. And it means that--while the F-35 is in production--no fully working machine has come off the production line as yet.

Upon learning my new word, I asked myself why this was a new word. Why are we doing this now? Looking into that, it would appear the a answer would be roughly, "The pipeline dried up." From at least WWII on, we have been at war. We therefore kept our defense industries very busy with production weapons, while a significantly smaller sector researched and tested new technologies. As they matured, we then incorporated them into production. With the end of the Cold War, we next migrated to the war on terror, which has created wondrous new opportunities for businesses geared to supply the peculiar needs of such a peculiar war.

But, it leaves the defense contractors who have traditionally supplied the "big toys" kind of hanging. Rather than continue to churn out a stream of proven weapons suited to the war at hand, orders all sort of stopped. The services all stepped back, took stock, and tried to envision what future threats would be, and how future wars might be fought. Across the board, all the services also wanted to avail themselves of any and all technological advances/advantages.

Many of these technologies are tantalizingly close to being realized. But, not quite... The military faces/faced some choices. Defense contractors need work. They can not pay their employees with promises of a contract that will be made whenever some new technology is ready for production. We either spend money churning out more old weapons, then spend more to switch when the technology is ready, or we shut the contractors down, and expect them to be in some sort of dormant state of suspended animation while new technology matures, then expect the contractors to come back to life and make the new stuff.

Or, we do this here concurrency thing. Which obviously comes with it own problems. I first heard the word looking at the LCS program. The Navy was to build four, then play with them for years, make a selection, and commence production. During the Cold War, that would have worked because the shipyards would have had plenty of other work getting contracts for production warships after they spit out these newfangled test beds. Now, however, there are no production contracts!

We are planning Flight III Burkes. Bath is building three DDG-1000 ships. That is it! Without LCS, there is no other surface warfare ship program. The Navy was made to realize that no major contractor would build four ships, then hold their yards open for a decade until production would start for real. Production therefore immediately accelerated...so fast, in fact, that it has overtaken development. We are building concurrently.

The same has happened with the F-35. When we balked at the idea of producing multiple different aircraft for multiple jobs, and lumped everything into one design, we shut down the work pipeline. We created a situation where the F-35 is the only game in town. Want the industry to continue working? Build the F-35! There is no other work out there. F-35 technology not quite ready yet? Well, the production facilities need work now. So, we run test aircraft off the line with "production" models, which inevitably are flawed as new test results come in.

Dwight David Eisenhower warned that we need to beware of the military industrial complex. This is why. It exists to make weapons. A war ensures a steady stream of work. Peace creates problems...like concurrency. I would relax. If history shows anything, it shows the next war is just around the corner, and the pipeline will open up, and the defense factories will function like the well oiled machines they are. This irritating peace situation won't last forever.

The Pentagon still spends money as though the US can afford waste.