Posted on May 4, 2023
SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu May 04 2023

Valid 00Z Fri May 05 2023 - 00Z Sun May 07 2023

...Threat of severe thunderstorms over the southern Plains through tonight
followed by heavy rain and threat of flash flooding across the Tennessee
Valley on Friday...

...Unsettled weather expanding into the Pacific Northwest will promote
snowmelt and flooding across the interior sections while rain and some
thunderstorms expand up the northern Plains...

...Cool afternoons across the western U.S. and the Mid-Atlantic will be
contrasted with highs into the low 90s in the central Plains by Saturday...

Over the next couple of days, much of the active weather will be found
across the mid-section of the country, gradually shifting eastward into
the southeastern U.S. while unsettled weather will persist across the
Northwest and the northern Plains.

This is in response to a slow-moving upper trough interacting
with a couple of slow-moving frontal boundaries.

The frontal boundary currently across the southern Plains
will be responsible for a threat of severe thunderstorms
over the southern Plains through tonight as it lifts ever
so slowly northeastward.

By Friday, the thunderstorms are forecast to reach into
the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley as a low pressure
wave develops on the front over the central Plains.

Heavy rain will likely expand eastward across the mid-Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee Valley Friday and Friday night ahead
of the low pressure wave where the heavy rain may lead to flash
flooding. By Saturday, the threat of heavy rain should decrease
as the rain continues its eastward movement into the
Carolinas.

Meanwhile, thunderstorm clusters are forecast to organize
across the lower Mississippi Valley behind the warm front,
and over central Texas ahead of a dry line.

Mostly Cloudy
81°F
27
Humidity 26%
Wind Speed ENE 11 MPH
Barometer 29.63 in (1003.39 mb)
Dewpoint 47°F (8°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 82°F (28°C)
Last update 04 May 02:55 PM MD

This Afternoon
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. East northeast wind around 13 mph.
Tonight
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. East northeast wind 5 to 14 mph becoming west southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
Rain likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 9am. High near 64. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 44. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday
Rain. High near 50. West southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of rain, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56.
Sunday Night
A chance of rain, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.
Monday
A slight chance of rain, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 59.
Monday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.
Tuesday
A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 59.
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.
Wednesday
A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 61.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Thursday
A chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

This Afternoon
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near
80. East northeast wind around 13 mph.

Tonight
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm.
Some of the storms could produce gusty winds.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. East northeast
wind 5 to 14 mph becoming west southwest after midnight.
Chance of precipitation is 70%.

New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch,
except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday
Rain likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm
after 9am. High near 64. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming
east in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch,
except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 44.
West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch
possible.

Saturday
Rain. High near 50. West southwest wind around 10 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts
between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday Night
A 40 percent chance of rain, mainly before midnight.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Sunday
A 50 percent chance of rain, mainly after noon.
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56.

Sunday Night
A chance of rain, mainly before midnight.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Monday
A slight chance of rain, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 59.


Monday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Tuesday
A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 59.

Tuesday Night
A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Wednesday
A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 61.

Wednesday Night
A chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 43.

Thursday
A chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Thu May 04 2023

Valid 12Z Sun May 07 2023 - 12Z Thu May 11 2023

...Overview...

The forecast flow pattern over North America next week looks to
feature mean ridging over the central-eastern CONUS and
mean troughing over the central-western CONUS.
The ample yet uncertain downstream ejection of
numerous upper-level impulses and associated weather
focusing surface systems are expected to tap an
influx of Gulf moisture to favor broad and widespread
shower/storm chances from the Plains to the Mississippi
Valley/Midwest and Southeast/East.

Conditions will remain unseasonably cool in the West
under the influence of mean troughing, with a daily
precipitation focus for the northwest/northern tier
of the region.

...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Guidance still shows a generally similar and slowly
evolving larger scale pattern through the weekend
into Monday despite transitional blocky flow over
North America and adjoining waters.

Forecast spread has decreased a bit in this period,
bolstering forecast confidence to near average levels overall.
Even so, ample differences and run to run consistency issues
remain with local weather focusing smaller scale systems
embedded within the flow.

A composite blend of reasonably compatible model guidance
from the 06 UTC GFS and 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian
seems to provide a good forecast basis that tends to mitigate
smaller scale variance consistent with system predictability,
but system continuity is less than stellar.

This solution though does have good ensemble and
National Blend of Models (NBM) support. Ensemble spaghetti and
cluster plots however then show a more rapid increase in forecast
spread/uncertainly for the rest of next week.

Accordingly, the WPC medium range product suite was
then primarily derived from a still compatible

06 UTC GEFS/00 UTC ECMWF ensemble means and the NBM.
The newer 12 UTC guidance suite and trends have overall remained
in line with this aforementioned forecast plan.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A steady supply of Gulf moisture over the central to eastern
United States will favor a stormy and wet pattern next week.
Embedded shortwave energy aloft as well as general front
progression will dictate the chances for locally heavier rainfall.

The experimental WPC medium range Excessive Rainfall Outlook
(ERO) is set to issue a "marginal risk" threat area over the Midwest/southwestern Great Lake states, by Monday given a decent
guidance signal for supporting shortwave and surface frontal wave
approach to focus moisture/instability.

While no other EROs have been introduced in the Day 4/5
timeframe, the environment would suggest there will likely
eventually be additional Marginal Risk areas, if not higher.

Model QPF has otherwise been rather nebulous, from the
southern Plains and Mississippi Valley eastward across the
east-central U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas.

With the 12 UTC ECMWF trending favorably compared
to the prior 00 UTC run, there is now a growing signal
for more organized precipitation with strong convection
and to shift focus back from the Rockies into the Plains next
Wednesday/Thursday with slow approach of a main upper
trough/height falls out from The West.

High temperatures will be running above average broadly
from the Plains to the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic under the
influence of mean ridging aloft, with some unseasonably
warm highs 15+ degrees above average centered on the
Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley.

Seasonable temperatures and low precipitation chances
are expected across the Northeast with high pressure
in the vicinity through the forecast period.

Some temperature fluctuation as well as breezy winds may
effect New England dependent on the proximity of an
upper-level closed low over Canada and subsequent
cold front passage.

Energetic upper-level pattern with mean troughing aloft
will favor periodic precipitation chances in the West next week,
especially for the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin/Northern Rockies.

Some snow showers will be possible for higher mountain
elevations, but seasonably rising snow levels will keep
these chances isolated.

Temperatures will remain cool and below average,
especially across the West Coast states.

---------------------------------------
KBOI (Boise Arpt, ID, US)
BKN120/ 10SM
Temperature: 19.4°C ( 67°F)
Dewpoint: 2.8°C ( 37°F) [RH = 33%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.62 inches Hg
WINDS: EAST 15MPH GUSTING 26MPH
PK WND 09031/2119 SLP009

-------------------------------------
KCOE (Coeur DAlene Arpt, ID, US)
FEW095/ 10SM
Temperature: 23.0°C ( 73°F)
Dewpoint: 12.0°C ( 54°F) [RH = 50%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.58 inches Hg
WINDS: SW 10MPH/ LTG DSNT E TSE08RAE09

-------------------------------
KIDA (Idaho Falls Rgnl, ID, US)
CLR 10SM
Temperature: 18.3°C ( 65°F)
Dewpoint: 1.7°C ( 35°F) [RH = 33%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg
WINDS: EAST 9MPH

-----------------------------
KJER (Jerome Cnty Arpt, ID, US)
SCT060/ 10SM
Temperature: 11.1°C ( 52°F)
Dewpoint: 5.0°C ( 41°F) [RH = 66%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.74 inches Hg
WINDS: WEST 13MPH/
PK WND 27026/2210 WSHFT 2207
LTG DSNT NW-NE RAB03E20 P0000

--------------------------------
KLLJ (Challis Arpt, ID, US)
FEW037 SCT055 OVC080/ 10SM
Temperature: 10.6°C ( 51°F)
Dewpoint: 7.8°C ( 46°F) [RH = 83%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.78 inches Hg
WINDS: N 13MPH/ RAE54 SLP060 P0002

-------------------------------------
KMLP (Mullan Pass, ID, US)
BKN080/ 10-SM
Temperature: 20.0°C ( 68°F)
Dewpoint: -1.7°C ( 29°F) [RH = 23%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.74 inches Hg
WINDS: NA

----------------------------------
KMUO (Mountain Home AFB, ID, US)
FEW030 BKN100 BKN140 OVC200/
9SM BLDU/ LTG DSNT W AND ESE
Temperature: 15.0°C ( 59°F)
Dewpoint: 5.0°C ( 41°F) [RH = 51%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.66 inches Hg
WINDS: SSE 29MPH GUSTING 39MPH
TG DSNT W AND ESE SLP033

---------------------------------
KRXE (Rexburg/Madison Cnty, ID, US)
CLR 10SM
Temperature: 16.7°C ( 62°F)
Dewpoint: 1.1°C ( 34°F) [RH = 35%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.76 inches Hg
WINDS: SOUTH 6MPH/

------------------------------
KSNT (Stanley/Ranger Stn, ID, US)
Temperature: 6.1°C ( 43°F)
Dewpoint: 3.9°C ( 39°F) [RH = 86%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.82 inches Hg
WINDS: ESE 12MPH GUSTING 20MPH
SLP061 P0001

---------------------------
KSZT (Sandpoint Arpt, ID, US)
CLR 10SM
Temperature: 28.0°C ( 82°F)
Dewpoint: 3.0°C ( 37°F) [RH = 20%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.52 inches Hg
WINDS: NORTH 5MPH/

-------------------------------
KTWF (Twin Falls/Joslin Fl, ID, US)
CLEAR 10SM
Temperature: 14.4°C ( 58°F)
Dewpoint: 4.4°C ( 40°F) [RH = 51%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.69 inches Hg
WINDS: WEST 9MPH

----------------------------------
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Responses: 3
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Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
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Drying out again in Central Florida.
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PO1 William "Chip" Nagel
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SSgt (Join to see) Am I Going to Get Some Rain or Do I Need to Sacrifice a Goat beside the Radio Antenna?
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Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
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Go for the goat....goat grabs are fun and filling. :-))
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SMSgt Lawrence McCarter
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Cloudy today in Eastern Massachusetts and temp of 49.
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