Posted on Apr 10, 2023
SSgt Forensic Meteorological Consultant
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Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook


Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
231 PM MDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SNOW MELT AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING...

Warming temperatures will accelerate
the melting of snowpack through mid-week. Daytime
highs Monday and Tuesday will reach into the mid
50s in mountain valleys and the upper 60s to
low 70s across the eastern Magic Valley, Raft River region,
and lower Snake Plain.

It is important to note that most locations below
6500ft elevation will likely remain
above freezing tonight, with almost the entire
CWA remaining above freezing Monday night.

These extended periods of above freezing
temperatures could exacerbate runoff from
melting.

While most of the flooding potential will be
a result of runoff in low-lying locations,
snow melt in the foothill areas will also
increase flow on small creeks and streams
including some larger streams that feed
into mainstem rivers.

Melting snow has already led to flooding
in portions of Jefferson County, where roads
and homes have been impacted and a
FLOOD WARNING is in effect for the
impacted areas. Currently the river forecast
for the Portneuf River at Pocatello is to rise
above action stage

Wednesday into Thursday.
Both the Portneuf near Topaz and the Bear
River at the Idaho/Utah border are forecast to
approach action stage.

Clear snow, ice and debris from culverts
and other flow paths to allow runoff to
flow away from buildings and other vulnerable
infrastructure.

Move deep snow away from the foundations of
buildings and move equipment, and livestock
out of poorly drained or
low lying areas.

Remember, if you encounter a flooded roadway, turn
around don`t drown, you never know what road
conditions are hidden under the water.

----------------------------------
Avalanche Warning
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
BACKCOUNTRY

AVALANCHE WARNING Forest Service Sawtooth
Avalanche Center Ketchum ID
Relayed by National Weather Service Pocatello ID
708 AM MDT Mon Apr 10 2023

...The Forest Service Sawtooth Avalanche Center in Ketchum has
ISSUED an AVALANCHE WARNING which is in effect until 6:00 AM
MDT Tuesday...

* WHAT...Avalanche warning. The avalanche danger is high.

* WHERE...The Smoky, White Cloud, Boulder, Soldier and Pioneer
Mountains, including the mountains near Ketchum, Hailey,
Bellevue, Carey, Fairfield, Galena Summit and Smiley Creek.

The backcountry avalanche warning does
not apply to highway avalanche programs
or operating ski areas.

* WHEN...Until 6:00 AM MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist.
Warm temperatures and nights with weak freezes
are saturating a dry snowpack.

Large natural wet snow avalanches are almost certain.
Avalanches could impact roadways, trails, and structures
in the valley bottom and will be large enough to
dam rivers, snap trees, and destroy a wood frame house.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Avoid avalanche terrain. Expect very large,
destructive wet avalanches to run long
distances and reach the valley floor.

Stay off of and out from below steep slopes
- slopes steeper than about 30 degrees.
Slick roofs that still hold snow may produce
avalanches large enough to bury a person.

The threat of huge, destructive avalanches
will peak from about 2-8 PM. Consult
http://www.sawtoothavalanche.com or
http://www.avalanche.org for more detailed information.

Similar avalanche danger may exist at locations
outside the coverage area of this or
any avalanche center.

-------------------------------------------------

Current conditions at
Kalispell, Glacier Park International Airport (KGPI)
Lat: 48.30417°NLon: 114.26361°WElev: 2972ft.

Overcast
51°F/ 11°C
Humidity 68%
Wind Speed SW 4 MPH
Barometer 30.04 in (1017.27 mb)
Dewpoint 41°F (5°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 10 Apr 08:55 AM MDT

----------------------------------------

Detailed Forecast
Today
A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Southeast wind 7 to 13 mph.
Tonight
A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between midnight and 3am, then a chance of rain after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. South wind 6 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday
Rain. High near 52. West southwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of rain and snow before 9pm, then a slight chance of snow between 9pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. West southwest wind 13 to 21 mph becoming northwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday
A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. South southwest wind around 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Thursday
A slight chance of snow before 3pm, then
a slight chance of rain. Partly sunny, with
a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Friday
A slight chance of rain after noon.
Partly sunny, with a high near 50.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.

-----------------------------------
Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Missoula MT
151 PM MDT Sat Apr 8 2023

...Minor flooding along small streams and rockfall through
Monday...
Significant warming and clearing skies on Sunday
and Monday will result in snowmelt and
rising waters.

Small streams have the risk of minor flooding
especially if culverts become blocked.
Localized ponding of melting snow will result
in minor impacts for poorly
drained and low lying areas, while rockfall
along area highways will be possible.
Flow in larger rivers will increase
significantly from below average to
above average, though no impactful
flooding will occur.

Be prepared for rising waters when
recreating on area rivers.
Temperatures will drop down to
about normal on Tuesday.

Rain on snow for Tuesday and Wednesday
will also contribute to rising small streams.

-------------------------------
KBOI (Boise Arpt, ID, US)
CLEAR 10SM
Temperature: 14.4°C ( 58°F)
Dewpoint: 1.1°C ( 34°F) [RH = 40%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.12 inches Hg
WINDS: SOUTH 13MPH


---------------------------
KCOE (Coeur DAlene Arpt, ID, US)
BKN023 OVC040/ 10SM
Temperature: 9.0°C ( 48°F)
Dewpoint: 9.0°C ( 48°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.03 inches Hg
WINDS: CALM

-------------------------
KIDA (Idaho Falls Rgnl, ID, US)
CLEAR 10SM
Temperature: 2.2°C ( 36°F)
Dewpoint: -0.6°C ( 31°F) [RH = 82%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.35 inches Hg
WINDS: CALM

--------------------------------
KJER (Jerome Cnty Arpt, ID, US)
CLEAR 10SM
Temperature: 8.3°C ( 47°F)
Dewpoint: 1.1°C ( 34°F) [RH = 60%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.24 inches Hg
WINDS: ENE 22MPH GUSTING 31MPH
PK WND 08027/1446 SLP232

--------------------------------
KLLJ (Challis Arpt, ID, US)
CLEAR 10SM
Temperature: 5.0°C ( 41°F)
Dewpoint: -1.1°C ( 30°F) [RH = 65%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.28 inches Hg
WINDS: CALM
Temperature: 5.0°C ( 41°F)
Dewpoint: -1.1°C ( 30°F) [RH = 65%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.28 inches Hg
WINDS: CALM

--------------------------
KMUO (Mountain Home AFB, ID, US)
CLEAR 10SM
Temperature: 12.8°C ( 55°F)
Dewpoint: 2.1°C ( 36°F) [RH = 48%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.13 inches Hg
WINDS: ESE 23MPHPK WND 11026/48
SLP199

-------------------------------
KRXE (Rexburg/Madison Cnty, ID, US)
CLEAR 10SM
Temperature: 4.4°C ( 40°F)
Dewpoint: -2.2°C ( 28°F) [RH = 62%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.34 inches Hg
WINDS: NE 6MPH

-------------------------------
KSNT (Stanley/Ranger Stn, ID, US)
Temperature: 2.2°C ( 36°F)
Dewpoint: -2.8°C ( 27°F) [RH = 69%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.27 inches Hg
WINDS: CALM

------------------------------
KSZT (Sandpoint Arpt, ID, US)
OVC013/ 3SM -RA
Temperature: 9.0°C ( 48°F)
Dewpoint: 9.0°C ( 48°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.02 inches Hg
WINDS: SOUTH 3MPH

-----------------------------
KTWF (Twin Falls/Joslin Fl, ID, US)
CLEAR 10SM
Temperature: 10.0°C ( 50°F)
Dewpoint: 2.8°C ( 37°F) [RH = 61%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.22 inches Hg
WINDS: EAST 10MPH

------------------------------------
--------------------------------

COL Randall C. MAJ Dale E. Wilson, Ph.D. ~2583:Col Mark W. Burns] PV2 Larry Sellnow
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SGT David A. 'Cowboy' Groth
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Excellent weather share brother SSgt (Join to see)
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Lt Col John (Jack) Christensen
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All that snow is heading downstream.
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