In the Strategic Competition with China and Russia, Talent Reigns Supreme

In 1999, Gallup asked Americans to pinpoint the most pivotal moments of the 20th century. Topping the list were World War II and the advent of the atom bomb. The decision to drop the atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, effectively concluding WWII, hinged on a singular individual: Robert Oppenheimer. The decision of Oppenheimer’s father to immigrate to the United States not only facilitated this critical and strategic outcome during WWII but also paved the way for the United States’ rise as a global leader throughout the remainder of the 20th century and beyond.

It was talent – not merely technology – that proved decisive.

However, in contemporary times, the prevailing sentiment in Washington tends to view today’s "new war" – the strategic competition between the United States and China and Russia – exclusively through the lens of technology. While technology undoubtedly plays a significant role, it is the human dimension that will ultimately shape the governmental, economic, social, and political landscape within which technology is developed and deployed – much as it did in the last century with Robert Oppenheimer.

Even in the era of artificial intelligence, human talent remains paramount.

This reality is further underscored in the challenges both China and Russia face regarding population growth.

For China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, the future hinges on a race for talent. China's population has declined for the second consecutive year, and projections indicate that its population growth will plummet to -0.66% by 2050 and -1.21% by 2100. Russia faces a similar predicament; its current population of 146 million is less than it was 30 years ago and estimates suggest a 10% decrease in population over the next decade.

Given these significant and perhaps decisive demographic challenges, Xi’s objective of achieving the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by mid this century may be imperiled or even unattainable. Without population growth, China and Russia may struggle to fulfill the economic objectives that are fundamental to its political ambitions. Moreover, since this downward trend is projected to persist throughout the 21st century, both China and Russia may resort to alternative pathways, such as territorial expansion, to compensate for their unrealized economic visions and achieve their political objectives through other means. This reality may have driven China and Russia’s formation of a “no limits” partnership.

Xi and Putin announced their "no limits" partnership just days before Putin's invasion of Ukraine, sparking the deadliest land war in Europe since WWII – a revisionist redux that has only fueled Xi and Putin’s ambitions. Elizabeth Economy, a former Senior Advisor for China at the US Department of Commerce, recently outlined the Xi-Putin global vision:

“By now, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambition to remake the world is undeniable. He wants to dissolve Washington’s network of alliances and purge what he dismisses as “Western” values from international bodies. He wants to knock the U.S. dollar off its pedestal and eliminate Washington’s chokehold over critical technology…Beijing’s playbook begins with a well-defined vision of a transformed world order.”


Xi and Putin’s vision for an alternative world order was further elucidated during Putin’s recent state visit to China. In a 7000-word treatise, Xi and Putin proclaimed their "new era" partnership, delineating a dystopian worldview that prioritizes “immutable sovereignty, state- directed political rights, and a vision that puts China at the center stage” while characterizing the United States as a destabilizing force worldwide.

Both Xi and Putin perceive the United States as the primary obstacle to realizing their vision. They view the ascendance of their power through territorial conquest – evidenced by Ukraine and Taiwan – as essential. Moreover, they see the reorientation of international institutions away from the West as critical to achieving their envisioned alternative world order. In this context of “might makes right” in Ukraine (not to mention potential conflict over Taiwan in the future) and soft power conquest through China’s Belt and Road Initiative, talent emerges as the key determinant of success.

Therefore, the United States and the West must find ways to continue to support the growth of our population and cultivate, retrain, retool, and renew the talent in our nation and society particularly in sectors crucial to economic growth such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, advanced manufacturing, and other STEM fields. Strengthening and modernizing our talent infrastructure to support a 21st century economy will be more potent than any weapon system – be it a bomb, fighter jet, or aircraft carrier. It will enable us to outmatch the economies of Russia and China and emerge victorious.

Talent will prove decisive yet again.


Dr. Alex Gallo is a US Army Veteran and author of “Vetspective,” a RallyPoint series that discusses national security, foreign policy, politics, and society and highlights the analysis of thought-leaders, policy analysts, and scholars. Alex is a Senior Vice President with NobleReach Foundation. He also serves as a fellow with George Mason University’s National Security Institute and an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University.

Follow him on Twitter at @AlexGalloUSA.


Sources:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/3427/most-important-events-century-from-viewpoint- people.aspx

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-drops-2nd-year-raises-long-term- growth-concerns-2024-01-17/

https://www.newsweek.com/2050-population-data-that-could-ruin-china-century-1903597

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-vladimir-putin-meets-with-chinese-leader-xi-jinping-in- beijing [login to see] 3

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-alternative-order-xi-jinping-elizabeth-economy

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/17/china/xi-putin-china-visit-takeaways-intl-hnk/index.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-visit-chinas-xi-deepen-strategic-partnership-2024-05-
15/