The Age of Continuous Conflict and Crisis

Continuous conflict and crisis may well be the central characteristic of the 21st century.

From the outset of this century, there has been ongoing, structural shocks to the system suggestive of this conflict and crisis phenomenon at a macro level – from 9/11 to the financial and housing crises, from COVID-19 to the more recent conflicts across the globe. This 21st century paradigm of conflict and crisis is not only evident across time. It is also being revealed
in this very moment.

Indeed, a simple walk across the globe is demonstrative of this modern paradigm: war in Ukraine, war in Gaza, ongoing conflict in the greater Middle East region, preparations for war and potential conflict in the South China Sea over Taiwan, rogue regimes represented by North Korea and Iran seeking to build and expand their nuclear capabilities, destabilizing terrorism – the list goes on. In fact, the 2023 National Intelligence Estimate spoke to these complexities and global challenges:

“During the coming year, the United States and its allies will confront a complex and pivotal international security environment…great powers, rising regional powers, as well as an evolving array of non-state actors, will vie for dominance in the global order, as well as compete to set the emerging conditions and the rules that will shape that order for decades to come.”

Active conflict and the potential for new wars are likely to accelerate in the coming years – all geared towards competition for the geopolitical and values-based regime that will dominate the international security order for the remainder the 21st and into the 22nd century.

So, the question becomes: what approach should the United States adopt in this new paradigm of continuous conflict and crisis – particularly given the stakes?

To date, we in the United States – and the West more broadly – have treated each of these crises, wars, and potential conflicts as phenomena onto themselves. We act as if they are not part of a wider, interconnected international challenge. We approach each of these challenges idiosyncratically – both in terms of what we do and how we do it.

For example, the United States tries to lead the deterrence paradigm in regions such as the South China Sea vis-à-vis China, but we look to others to lead the deterrence regime on the continent of Europe. This inconsistency in leadership and approach enables our adversaries to split the United States and its partners and allies – exploiting differing objectives, considerations, and vulnerabilities. Accordingly, we look more like Swiss cheese rather than a Swiss Army Knife.

And yet, that’s not even the most concerning part. What might be most concerning is the fact that our adversaries and enemies are approaching crisis and conflict with the United States and the West completely differently and via a much more unified front.

We fail to understand that China and Russia – and their cronies in Tehran and Pyongyang – see the situation completely differently. China and Russia created a “no limits” strategic partnership in February 2022 just days before Russia fully invaded Ukraine – furthering the bloodiest land war on the European continent since World War II. Russia and China have also deepened their ties and strategic relationship with North Korea and Iran, bringing a more expanded, global dimension to their joined strategic ambitions to diminish and perhaps even displace United States and Western primacy on the global stage. The defense minister of one of NATO’s newest members, Finland, made this stark warning: "While these issues are not public, what Russia does at the moment together with China, Iran, North Korea, and its other allies, also from the global south, constitutes a very serious prospect in the long term" 

China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran – not to mention state and non-state terrorist groups – see a United States that is reluctant to confront its enemies and defend its interests. They assume a war-weary American public still reeling not only from 20 years of war but also the societal impact of COVID and inflation. They see a fractured NATO and Western-oriented
coalition having trouble governing at home and maintaining a common consensus abroad. And they observe a developing world that feels abandoned by the West – open to new forms of economic and political support due to the deteriorating global economic conditions.


Even just a slightly deeper look shows the vulnerabilities the United States and the West face:

 Deteriorating Global Economy. The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects Report found “…a sharp downturn in growth is expected to be widespread, with forecasts in 2023 revised down for 95% of advanced economies and nearly 70% of emerging market and developing economies.” Further, the report asserts “…per-capita income growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to average 2.8-percent – a full percentage lower than the 2010-2019 average.” The same World Bank report further suggested that if the global economy slips into recession, “this would mark the first time in more than 80 years that two global recessions have occurred within the same decade.”

 Doubts about the Western-Dominated System. According to Pew Research, in a 2023 survey, “at least three-quarters of adults in Argentina, France, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea, and the United Kingdom assess their country’s economy negatively.”

 Dis-Unified Western Allies. According to an Associated Press report, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that sending Western troops into Ukraine is “not ruled out.” But the very next day, both Germany and Poland said they would not send troops to Ukraine to fight Russia. And the NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated the alliance has “no plans” to send NATO troops to Ukraine.


An economically vulnerable, self-doubting, inward-facing United States and West is dangerous. A dis-unified United States and West (and its partners and allies in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region) – on top of it all – is provocative.

We must see the challenge from China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran not as disparate actors working towards their own narrow interests or at best in parallel with one-another. On the contrary, we must see these actors as working together in common cause towards diminishing and eventually displacing the West with the objective of dominating the global order, rules, and norms.

If we do not change the paradigm and re-establish a unified front among our adversaries and enemies, then the age of conflict and crisis may well culminate with insecurity and conflict right here at home.

We have just years – not decades – to get it right.

Sources
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/06/15/economic-ratings-are-poor-and-
getting-worse-in-most-countries-surveyed/

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/01/10/global-economic-prospects
https://apnews.com/article/paris-conference-support-ukraine-zelenskyy-
c458a1df3f9a7626128cdeb84050d469

https://apnews.com/article/nato-stoltenberg-ukraine-troops-france-slovakia-
5d4ed747861a3c0edb8f922fa36427c2

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-links-with-china-iran-north-korea-threat-
warns-finland-2023-12-12/


Alex Gallo is the author of “Vetspective,” a RallyPoint series that discusses national security, foreign policy, politics, and society. He is a fellow with George Mason University’s National Security Institute. Alex is also an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and a US Army Veteran. Follow him on Twitter at @AlexGalloUSA.