What are the odds of losing my orders if I refuse Airborne School?

Only your branch manager can tell you that. They might send you to the same unit, or a different unit on the same post, or to Korea. No one here can tell you what the priorities are for your branch manager to slot right now, and anything anyone says about what the odds are of your assignment is complete conjecture.

Lots of people with scoliosis have gone through airborne and even Ranger school. If you're medically qualified to be in the Army you're probably qualified to pass Airborne School

If it is TDY Enroute you will probably go “Needs of the Army” if you refuse the school or fail it. As for when you get to unit I remember I got to Bragg as a SPC & myself & a SSG walked in to see the CSM for initial brief to the unit. All he really said was you ready to jump I was like “get me manifested & lets go.” The SSG was like ya about that CSM I don't want to do that. CSM said alright no problem dont unpack your f***ing bags your out of my Battalion & going to “Leg Land” down the street.

“WELCOME TO FT BRAGG SPC LEWIS”

You might be reassigned totally or to a company that is not on jump status if any exists in that BDE. 2 soldiers who were not airborne qualified joined us some months ago, One E5 who volunteered for airborne and PCS’d from Germany here and one E2 fresh from AIT who said he mysteriously found himself here in 82nd 1BCT lol. 1SG sent them their way to airborne school the following month and they have been back with their wings. Airborne units don’t like holding on to non-airborne soldiers for too long especially those who just don’t want to go to jump school and have no valid reason, I have seen a few who are not airborne qualified in airborne unit, like 2 out of 30 and they shake our chutes here.