Posted on Oct 11, 2015
Should the US ally with Syrian President Assad and Russia to defeat ISIL?
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I remember only a short time ago, that US openly supported the Syrian rebels during their civil war. The instability in Syria allowed for the rapid advancement of ISIL which later spread into Iraq. Now the open support of President Assad by Russia is pressuring America to support President Assad to create a unified front against ISIL, of which ISIL has proven itself to be a true adversary with potential of having staying power. Should we ally with President Assad, this will allow for a greater chance to defeat ISIL, but does put the US in an awkward position due to our support of the rebels.
According to the Army Operating Concept (AOC),http://www.tradoc.army.mil/tpubs/pams/tp525-3-1.pdf military land forces can expect five characteristics of future operational environments:
1. Increased velocity of momentum and human interaction events
2. Potential for over-match
3. Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
4. Spread of advanced cyberspace and counter-space capabilities
5. Demographics and operations among population, in cities and in complex terrain.
Moreover, the ACC specifically lists Russia and China as our competing powers and due to their technological capabilities, economic viability and resources. Additionally, regional powers, such as Iran, continue to perpetuate sectarian violence through supporting disenfranchised sectors of Arab countries. These known threats are amplified with the constant changing of Transnational Criminal and Terrorist Organizations that develop hybrid threats through covert alliances and use of black markets to support their own ideologies or material gain.
I think that although President Assad and the Russia government are a threat, I believe ISIL is a greater threat and "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" is true in this case.
According to the Army Operating Concept (AOC),http://www.tradoc.army.mil/tpubs/pams/tp525-3-1.pdf military land forces can expect five characteristics of future operational environments:
1. Increased velocity of momentum and human interaction events
2. Potential for over-match
3. Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
4. Spread of advanced cyberspace and counter-space capabilities
5. Demographics and operations among population, in cities and in complex terrain.
Moreover, the ACC specifically lists Russia and China as our competing powers and due to their technological capabilities, economic viability and resources. Additionally, regional powers, such as Iran, continue to perpetuate sectarian violence through supporting disenfranchised sectors of Arab countries. These known threats are amplified with the constant changing of Transnational Criminal and Terrorist Organizations that develop hybrid threats through covert alliances and use of black markets to support their own ideologies or material gain.
I think that although President Assad and the Russia government are a threat, I believe ISIL is a greater threat and "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" is true in this case.
Strategy
ISIS
Russia
War on Terror
Posted 9 y ago
Responses: 12
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We made the mistake of demanding the end of the Assad Regime rather than staying the hell out of it. That puts us in a tough spot. Should we? Probably. Will we? Probably not. It's all about saving face.
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MSG (Join to see)
Is this about saving facing face? I think the political motives need to go bigger and deeper. The one thing I learned about combat is, that winning is everything. I do not forsake our moral compass or ethics, but I'm willing to ride that line.
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SSG (Join to see)
IMO it is still an option to focus on Assad and once he has been eliminated, to go after Daesh. Going after both at the same time is silly and counterproductive.
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SSG (Join to see)
If Obama were still in office it would be about saving face. Now it's about getting the job done. I think it would be more beneficial to align with Assad and Russia to eliminate ISIS than to keep backing a bunch of rebels we know next to nothing about. If nation building happens afterward, let Russia worry about that. We offer military support, then when the job is done, go home.
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MSG (Join to see) - Sergeant; If you haven't already read it, I recommend Weiss and Hasan's "ISIS - Inside the Army of Terror" from Regan Arts (ISBN 98-1-941393-57-4) which was published in February of this year.
It's a bit dry but it's only 242 pages long (not counting notes).
I'll let you draw your own conclusions about which American administration since 1989 comes out looking like they actually knew what they were doing.
One of the interesting points about Syria and Assad that the book brings out is that Assad deliberately created the situation that spurred the growth of ISIS so that he could get the backing of the US.
One way of characterizing the situation in Syria is that it is a three (plus) corner fight between "outrageously violent Islamists", "not so outrageously violent Islamists (of various stripes some of whom may be supporting the 'outrageously violent Islamists' and/or the 'outrageously violent dictator' on any given day of the week, but not on others)", and and "outrageously violent dictator".
The best of the bad lot is the "not so outrageously violent Islamists".
It's a bit dry but it's only 242 pages long (not counting notes).
I'll let you draw your own conclusions about which American administration since 1989 comes out looking like they actually knew what they were doing.
One of the interesting points about Syria and Assad that the book brings out is that Assad deliberately created the situation that spurred the growth of ISIS so that he could get the backing of the US.
One way of characterizing the situation in Syria is that it is a three (plus) corner fight between "outrageously violent Islamists", "not so outrageously violent Islamists (of various stripes some of whom may be supporting the 'outrageously violent Islamists' and/or the 'outrageously violent dictator' on any given day of the week, but not on others)", and and "outrageously violent dictator".
The best of the bad lot is the "not so outrageously violent Islamists".
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MSG (Join to see)
Thanks Sir. I will put that book down as one of my professional reads. Excellent post.
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COL Ted Mc
MSG (Join to see) - Sergeant; You're welcome. I keep stumbling across interesting things and do like to pass them along. Heck, I even agree with some of them.
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COL Ted Mc
SSG(P) Hercules L. - Staff; Also a good book, but I thought that Weiss and Hassan's was just a bit more coherent. They both covered the ground well and pointed out the continuing validity of Sun Tzu's maxim “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
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Do you support Iran? If you do then yes, support President Assad. However, realize you are also supporting Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthi rebellion in Yemen. That is because Iran is the primary supporter for each of those organizations to include Assad's regime. The rebels, also known as the Free Syrian Army, are fighting against Assad's regime and the Iranian influence that comes with it. Allying with the Assad regime will not defeat Daesh, nor will it accomplish the US's strategic goals in the Middle East.
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MSG (Join to see)
I guess that what I'm getting at is the fact that current strategies have done nothing but embolden our enemies. With ISIL in place, when do we say "when" and knock one of the players out of the picture. I think President Assad is forcing our hand by allying with Russia and Iran, which furthers their agendas. I think it is going to take some unorthodox strategies to meet the complexities of the current operational environment. The days of "red" and "blue" forces are behind us.
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SPC (Join to see)
MSG (Join to see) - You are right, the day of "red" and "blue" are over. You have major power plays going on in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the South China Seas by countries who are against the US. We are in the early phases of a new Cold War against Russia, China, and Iran.
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MSG (Join to see)
I can believe that because I'm heading to Spain in a few days for Operation Trident Juncture.
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SPC (Join to see)
Ah Spain...the stories I could tell about that place, but I want to protect some semblance of pride.
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