Posted on Oct 22, 2014
Is the EBOLA scare in the USA real or is it overblown?
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Yesterday, October 21, 2014, in Stokes County, NC, an Assistant Principal who had taken a Mission Trip to South Africa was told to stay home and away from school for 21 days so that there would be no risk of exposing the staff or students at school to EBOLA from the visit to Africa. South Africa is over 5,000 miles away from where the infected areas of Africa are. According to the story that is further away than the distance from NC to Hawaii, yet people are afraid of contracting EBOLA from this person.
Is this a reasonable fear? Should anyone traveling from anywhere in Africa be quarantined for 21 days? Is this overreaction due to ignorance of geography? Or is there something else going on, what is your reaction to this story?
Is this a reasonable fear? Should anyone traveling from anywhere in Africa be quarantined for 21 days? Is this overreaction due to ignorance of geography? Or is there something else going on, what is your reaction to this story?
Geography
Homeland Security
Quarantine
Posted 10 y ago
Responses: 23
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The governmental and individual response to EBOLA in the US is a mix of real and overblown. I look at this from a strategic composite risk management. We need to identify the hazards, assess the hazards to determine risk (probability, severity, level risk), develop controls and make risk decisions, implement controls, then supervise and evaluate. Based upon this, a few points below:
- Hazard. EBOLA is a deadly disease spread via direct contact and body fluids. It has an incubation period of 2-21 days. It has killed thousands in Africa since 1975, killed one person in the US, and infected about 4 people in the US (two in the US and two in Africa).
- Risk. Low probability of infection based upon low numbers in US right now but can rapidly be high probabilty if the numbers in the US increase. High severity (death). Level risk extremely high or high.
- Controls. US just restricted travel to US from Africa to five airports, CDC ineffective response, local first providers and hospitals reportedly ill trained and ill prepared.
- Implement controls. Need to have controls before the controls can be implemented.
- Supervise and evaluate. One person dead with two infected is not a good batting average. Something was broke locally in Texas and possibly strategically with the CDC.
Therefore, is the fear reasonable? Possibly but let's use CRM to approach this risk in a deliberate manner. In the above Stoke County, NC example, the local reaction was based upon fear and not a reasoned analysis of the problem and proper controls. There are no cases of Ebola in South Africa that I am aware of.
- Hazard. EBOLA is a deadly disease spread via direct contact and body fluids. It has an incubation period of 2-21 days. It has killed thousands in Africa since 1975, killed one person in the US, and infected about 4 people in the US (two in the US and two in Africa).
- Risk. Low probability of infection based upon low numbers in US right now but can rapidly be high probabilty if the numbers in the US increase. High severity (death). Level risk extremely high or high.
- Controls. US just restricted travel to US from Africa to five airports, CDC ineffective response, local first providers and hospitals reportedly ill trained and ill prepared.
- Implement controls. Need to have controls before the controls can be implemented.
- Supervise and evaluate. One person dead with two infected is not a good batting average. Something was broke locally in Texas and possibly strategically with the CDC.
Therefore, is the fear reasonable? Possibly but let's use CRM to approach this risk in a deliberate manner. In the above Stoke County, NC example, the local reaction was based upon fear and not a reasoned analysis of the problem and proper controls. There are no cases of Ebola in South Africa that I am aware of.
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CMDCM Gene Treants
A really good analysis COL Jason Smallfield, PMP, CFM, CM. Are you going to publish this in and professional paper? Consider doing so please. As for Stokes County, fully agree that it was fear motivated rather than logic.
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COL Jason Smallfield, PMP, CFM, CM
MCPO Treants, thank you. I would but it has already been published. It is FM 5-10 Composite Risk Management published AUG 2006. All I did was apply the FM to what is publicly known about Ebola.
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The government should really put on their "thinking caps" prior to getting in front of a microphone. When the first case was diagnosed in the US, the CDC should have been all over it. Patient Zero was initially allowed to go home, and elsewhere; and potentially contaminating hundreds of people. The second nurse, was allowed to travel as well as a third co-worker to take a cruise. Each potentially threatening a larger, uncontrolled breakout.
A quarantine for personnel traveling to these potentially affected countries is a necessary risk, until the pandemic in that area is somewhat controlled.
A quarantine for personnel traveling to these potentially affected countries is a necessary risk, until the pandemic in that area is somewhat controlled.
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CMDCM Gene Treants
Should we, however, quarantine someone who was 5,000 miles away just because the country is on the same continent? What about all of the travelers to Egypt, Morocco, or even Gibraltar, just a ferry ride from Africa?
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CPT Gary Lapine
I would have to check my information for accuracy, but I do believe that most of the nations in the area, are monitoring those who are arriving from the stricken countries.
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Col (Join to see)
Yes we should quarantine everyone who has come from the immediate affected areas. Why? Look at the idiot doctor in New York who cared for ebola patients, flew home, and failed to quarantine himself. Then he travels all over New York using public transit and becomes symptomatic. If physicians aren't responsible enough to utilize common sense, then the state government should step in.
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This would be more a overreaction but understandable under the circumstances. People don't know what to believe with all the conflicting information. Even the CDC contradicts itself in statements.
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CMDCM Gene Treants
CDC has still not figured out how to dress people to prevent the spread of this virus.
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SSgt (Join to see)
MSgt (Join to see) I am sure a lot of people are posturing while others are being coerced to report as told to report. There are so many layers and I wonder.
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