Posted on Mar 3, 2015
Iran is Leading Iraq's Tikrit Offensive: What are the 2nd and 3rd Order Effects?
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Iraq’s offensive to retake Tikrit has taken the United States by surprise. While the coalition has conducted numerous airstrikes against ISIS in Mosul in preparation for an offensive that has now been indefinitely postponed, no airstrikes have been conducted in support of the operation to retake Tikrit. Instead, Iran appears to be providing leadership and military support to as much as 30,000 Iraqi troops and Shia militias as they fight to capture Tikrit from ISIS. There are numerous reports that the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Major General Qassem Soleimani is on the ground near Tikrit helping to lead the operation. Instead of airstrikes, large amounts of artillery and rocket fire are being used to support the ground troops. The second and third order effects of this development are numerous. Retaking Tikrit could open additional lines of communication and supply for the eventual offensive to retake Mosul. However, Iranian involvement in Iraq could also prove to be disastrous. The potential for the fight against ISIS to devolve into a sectarian war between Sunnis and Shia could be increasing. Iranian influence in Iraq has been increasing since we pulled out and this could help Iran gain even more power over the Iraqi government. Despite this, an ISIS defeat in Tikrit could be a significant morale boost to the Iraqi Army and a huge embarrassment to ISIS. Iraq, Iran and the US stand to make gains with a victory over ISIS in Tikrit. But who stands to gain more? It could be Iran. This is a very dangerous and unstable time for US interests in Iraq. What exactly will the effects be and will we be ready for them?
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/03/02/iraq-s-attack-against-isis-catches-u-s-by-surprise.html?via=desktop&source=facebook#
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31699632
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense-news/blog/intercepts/2015/03/02/iraq-iran-is-war-terrorism/24270363/
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/01/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-idUSKBN0LX1QL20150301
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http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/03/02/iraq-s-attack-against-isis-catches-u-s-by-surprise.html?via=desktop&source=facebook#
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31699632
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense-news/blog/intercepts/2015/03/02/iraq-iran-is-war-terrorism/24270363/
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/01/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-idUSKBN0LX1QL20150301
Invite others to respond
Iraq
Iran
ISIS
Tikrit
Posted 10 y ago
Responses: 8
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That entire region is a hot mess. I think that just about everyone here would agree that ISIS is bad. I could probably get people to agree that Iraq is bad, but better then ISIS. I could also probably get people to agree that Iran is bad, but maybe better then ISIS....but regardless, Iraq and Iran even without ISIS should be considered dangerous. It is nice to see that other countries in the neighborhood are unifying against ISIS.... Shows that they have concerns also.... but later down the road? Hard to say who will fight who once a common enemy is gone.
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Iran was already a major backer of the Shia majority. This will increase Iran's influence among Shia Iraqis. Likely will exacerbate the already hot sectarian divide. IMHO, Iraq as a nation is done and will Balkanize into thre distinict nations based on ethnic divides.....which is what the case was before WW1 and when Brits arbitrarily re-drew the borders in the region....
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I voted for bad thing because Iran is gaining influence in Iraq, but fighting ISIS is worth it. We don't want Iran gaining more influence in that region, and it seems they are doing just that.
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