Posted on Jun 25, 2016
Does The BREXIT Mean a "WIN" For Trump Or Hillary in November?
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Politics
Donald Trump
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Hillary Clinton
Edited >1 y ago
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Sadly, while the people who talk politics on this forum know what brexit is, I doubt that more than 20% of the US population has any idea what it is, what the EU is, or even what the UK is (other than they think it's a fancy name for England). So I don't think it will have any impact at all on our election.
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PO3 Donald Murphy
Well firstly guys, the EU does more business **TO** the UK, then the UK does to them. So unless the EU wanted to cut its nose off to spite its face, it would behoove them to be "as friendly as possible" when dealing with John Bull. The EU wants to be a country with Brussels being its Washington DC and all member countries being states. The UK did not want a part of that. The money part is not a factor. Now as to why the market is fluctuating is just par for the course when it comes to change. The UK passport will change back to Navy blue but other than that, Brits will still be able to travel throughout Europe. Again - they rely on the UK more than the UK relies on them. And if Liz gives up the throne to Kate and William, American tourist dollars will make England the richest nation on the planet and then the UK would have no need for any EU trade. Trust me - Brussels is more worried than London. Domino effect? Not hardly.
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CPT John Sheridan
PO3 Donald Murphy - Financial services is the largest part of the UK's economy and those activities are completely fungible. What motivation does anyone in Dublin, Frankfurt, or Brussels have to make a good deal with Britain when many of the London based firms are already making plans to pack up and move there?
Scotland's economy is largely export based with a large share going to the EU. For Northern Ireland, it's worse. Of all of the UK, it has the highest GDP per capita which is based upon heavy manufacturing of export goods. The majority of that goes to the EU.
While it is in everyone's interest to negotiate good trade agreements, don't underestimate the ability of all to be small minded in seeking competitive advantage.
Scotland's economy is largely export based with a large share going to the EU. For Northern Ireland, it's worse. Of all of the UK, it has the highest GDP per capita which is based upon heavy manufacturing of export goods. The majority of that goes to the EU.
While it is in everyone's interest to negotiate good trade agreements, don't underestimate the ability of all to be small minded in seeking competitive advantage.
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PO3 Donald Murphy
CPT John Sheridan - Yes, financial services are, but the UK's biggest business partners are USA and Asia. Were the UK to lose ALL of Europe (unlikely), they would not be broke or worried about having to rejoin the EU. The EU relies a lot on UK infrastructure services, IT, banking. So unless they are able to do it themselves, which we know they aren't* then they are pretty much going to have to treat the UK special.
Pretty much what they are already doing now, right? Lets face it, the UK doesn't use the Euro as it's main currency, has tons of "back out" features in every policy, etc. The UK's been separate and "dissatisfied" for some time now. This is hardly new. What's "new" is that it took the country THAT LONG to leave. Brussels has been pushing for UK to "shit or get off the pot" for some time now. Scotland likewise, is joined at the hip with London over tech.
*This is why no threats were made to the UK to fully adopt, like Denmark, Sweden and Portugal were given. Were the EU to be fully UK-independent, they'd have kicked London to the curb years ago during the ECU (European Currency Unit) debacle.
Pretty much what they are already doing now, right? Lets face it, the UK doesn't use the Euro as it's main currency, has tons of "back out" features in every policy, etc. The UK's been separate and "dissatisfied" for some time now. This is hardly new. What's "new" is that it took the country THAT LONG to leave. Brussels has been pushing for UK to "shit or get off the pot" for some time now. Scotland likewise, is joined at the hip with London over tech.
*This is why no threats were made to the UK to fully adopt, like Denmark, Sweden and Portugal were given. Were the EU to be fully UK-independent, they'd have kicked London to the curb years ago during the ECU (European Currency Unit) debacle.
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CPT John Sheridan
The fact that they kept out of the Eurozone and kept the £ sterling makes untangling less difficult. With a few good trade agreements, the Brexit should have a smaller impact than what has been predicted. On the other hand, with so many political positions to be bolstered and local interests in cities, I have doubts about enlightened self interest prevailing over the desire to "win".
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The BREXIT plays into Trump's hands well as he'll springboard off that to say that everywhere around the world, people are fed up with elitist in your face government. Clinton on the other hand won't have much other than the usual platitudes like the people spoke. Trump will hammer the "unrestrained" immigration issue, Brussels was out of touch like DC is out of touch, and the list goes on.
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Personally, I think it hurts Hillary (something I relish). I think Trump will win in November because I think Obama is going to throw Hillary under the bus at some point in the next few months as the FBI investigation takes hold. I also think the attempt to manipulate the vote by threatening trade agreements if it was not maintained is going to hurt the democrats and Obama overplayed his hand. The EU's philosophy of inclusion has successfully degraded two of the most powerful European countries and significantly affected their economies since the EU shares and shares alike. The nations have lost sovereignty and national pride. After the initial shock of the financial world that will probably last throughout the summer, it will become significantly clearer that it was the right move. Obama's goal has always included embracing a singular point of governance and economy and that takes away the desire to invest capital. Granted, most people do not know what they voted for or how it will affect the United States. I am watching Scotland to see what direction they take after the decision and whether they believe it gives them the impetus to separate.
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PO3 Donald Murphy
Well Colonel, you need to read a bit of political history. The democrats are not afraid to kill their own (JFK anyone?), so don't look to Obama to "assist" in the downfall of Clinton in any fashion. He has nothing to gain from it and "two firsters" is great copy no matter what rag you read.
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PO3 Donald Murphy
Sgt Tom Cunnally - We'll see. The EU trades more with the UK than the UK does with the EU. So anyone having second thoughts needs to have some serious firepower on their side. The money isn't changing. Only the laws. If France still wants to sell its wine to the UK it can. It just can't tell the UK wine sellers how to dress or act, anymore. That's all that has changed. There are always going to be a person or two that get the raw end of the stick but that happens everywhere. Move and adapt. The UK will compensate so anyone that is presently "working abroad" and "has to come home" will be compensated. So the second chancers are really just complaining to complain. The vote was not invented on Saturday and thrown into poll boothes on Monday. They've had over a year to get used to the concept and idea. When I was there last summer they were voting on the start of it. So nobody can say "I really didn't know what I was voting for." If so, then they're a git (UK for 'fool') and they deserve it.
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SPC (Join to see)
Hillary won't be convicted the FBI has already determined that she wasn't at fault for anything.
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