Posted on Oct 12, 2015
Do you think we will achieve fusion this century? What's your guess as to how long?
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My bet is that we'll have a working reactor within 10 years, and an economically viable one within 20. Why? Well, we already know fusion is possible -- just look up in the sky at noon, there's one of the Galaxy's smallest fusion reactors firing cheerfully away -- and billions upon billions are being poured into it by some of the richest people and corporations on the planet.
The prize? Clean, sustainable, limitless energy with none of the nasty byproducts of the fission reactors currently in use. The implications of terrestrial use alone are staggering...not to mention what possibilities it creates for exploring our solar system, and exploiting the resources.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/06/tech/pioneers-nuclear-fusion/index.html
The prize? Clean, sustainable, limitless energy with none of the nasty byproducts of the fission reactors currently in use. The implications of terrestrial use alone are staggering...not to mention what possibilities it creates for exploring our solar system, and exploiting the resources.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/06/tech/pioneers-nuclear-fusion/index.html
Science
Energy
Nuclear
Edited 9 y ago
Posted 9 y ago
Responses: 9
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Thank you for posting an interesting question SN Greg Wright. I was interested in the wording of the article in terms of the way they used heating and pressure to get the deuterium and tritium gas to 1,000.000 degrees celsius in a cost efficient manner.
I would expect that a small scale fusion-reactor prototype will be developed by 2035 somewhere in Europe or possibly Japan. I doubt the USA would allow it because of NIMBY [not in my backyard] mentality which seems to be prevalent - after all look at how much trouble the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository has stirred up. :-)
"Experts say science has made a lot of progress recently and for some, confidence is high.
"For $20 billion in cash, I could build you a working reactor," Professor Steven Cowley, CEO of the UK Atomic Energy Authority, told Popular Mechanics. "It would be big, and maybe not very reliable, but 25 years ago we didn't even know if we'd be able to make fusion work. Now, the only question is whether we'll be able to make it affordable."
Nonetheless, it's unlikely the big push for fusion will disappear altogether, as long as it promises to solve the world's energy needs for the next millennium.
"Sure. It would solve that. There's no question," Coblentz said. "We just have to demonstrate it, and then replicate it on a scale that will actually be practical."
I would expect that a small scale fusion-reactor prototype will be developed by 2035 somewhere in Europe or possibly Japan. I doubt the USA would allow it because of NIMBY [not in my backyard] mentality which seems to be prevalent - after all look at how much trouble the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository has stirred up. :-)
"Experts say science has made a lot of progress recently and for some, confidence is high.
"For $20 billion in cash, I could build you a working reactor," Professor Steven Cowley, CEO of the UK Atomic Energy Authority, told Popular Mechanics. "It would be big, and maybe not very reliable, but 25 years ago we didn't even know if we'd be able to make fusion work. Now, the only question is whether we'll be able to make it affordable."
Nonetheless, it's unlikely the big push for fusion will disappear altogether, as long as it promises to solve the world's energy needs for the next millennium.
"Sure. It would solve that. There's no question," Coblentz said. "We just have to demonstrate it, and then replicate it on a scale that will actually be practical."
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SN Greg Wright
LTC Stephen F. I hope you're wrong about that, Colonel. Those who cry NIMBY for fusion are simply knee-jerk reacting to the spectre of past fission problems without taking the time to educate themselves about fusion, regarding it's cleanliness.
Unfortunately, I fear you're right.
Unfortunately, I fear you're right.
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LTC Stephen F.
SN Greg Wright - NIMBY is why I believe fusion will take place outside of the USA in another nation which better appreciates the benefits of fusion.
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I think eventually they will crack that nut, but it won't be easy or cheap
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SN Greg Wright
1stSgt (Join to see) I think you're right, but the economics, once done to scale, can't be argued with, and so every energy corporation on the planet will want in on it.
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2025 ITER and the other initiatives will bring us a commercial design and commercially viable product.
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SN Greg Wright
LCDR (Join to see) I like the optimism! I definitely think we'll have it by then. I'm just not sold on it being economically viable yet, by then. But this is one time I sincerely hope to be wrong!
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LCDR (Join to see)
SN Greg Wright - We make great advancements on every front, every day. In the age of invention where there were a handful of Einsteins we literally have thousands and thousands of every race, religion and creed today.
In addition to ITER (which will be completed by then) there are multiple physics labs working on the remaining challenges with Fusion. While 2025 may not see the break even on the economic front the design will be on paper. After that there will be a gold rush to power an increasingly crowded world. By the end of our life time the achievements making their way through the academic institutions today will change our world beyond our wildest imagination. Every kid will have a 3d printer to set free their imagination and fuel even more amazing discoveries and inventions.
In addition to ITER (which will be completed by then) there are multiple physics labs working on the remaining challenges with Fusion. While 2025 may not see the break even on the economic front the design will be on paper. After that there will be a gold rush to power an increasingly crowded world. By the end of our life time the achievements making their way through the academic institutions today will change our world beyond our wildest imagination. Every kid will have a 3d printer to set free their imagination and fuel even more amazing discoveries and inventions.
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It won't be us. It seems Obama would rather regress to the 8th Century and import 10's of thousands of shariah law wackos than propell our civilization into scientific leadership and discovery
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SN Greg Wright
PV2 Scott Goodpasture I think it will be a global effort. Of the 21 billion being spent on ITER (the largest such project), the US has something like 3.5B into it. So at least we have a stake anyway.
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The only question is whether it will be affordable - We can turn lead into Gold but economically its a loss. I do find it interesting how nature has provided some very efficient blue prints for many things -
http://worldnewsdailyreport.com/russian-scientists-turn-lead-into-gold/
http://worldnewsdailyreport.com/russian-scientists-turn-lead-into-gold/
Russian Physicists Turn Lead Into Gold
Moscow | A research team at the Federal State Enterprise Russian Research Center headed by professor Nicolai E. Brevechin has conclusively succeeded in producing very small amounts of gold from bismuth and lead, a goal previously sought out by alchemists for centuries.The result that was at firs
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SN Greg Wright
SPC David S. That's what ITER is for. We can make antimatter now (barring zero point energy, antimatter is the best energy form we know of), for something like several trillion bucks an ounce. Thing is, we KNOW it can be done, as with fusion...just gotta figure out how to do it economically, as you say.
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SPC David S.
My understanding of ITER is that it is only going to produce 500 mw in the form of heat not actual electricity while only consuming 50 mw. However the fusion reactor cost is now over $20 billion. However despite its smaller size I'm betting on Lockheed Martin's Skunkworks compact fusion reactor concept, CFR.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlYClniDFkM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlYClniDFkM
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SN Greg Wright
Maybe I'm confused but I thought we already had nuclear power? I.e., civilian nuclear power plants and not to mention the nuclear reactors onboard US Navy Aircraft Carriers and Submarines?
Maybe I'm confused but I thought we already had nuclear power? I.e., civilian nuclear power plants and not to mention the nuclear reactors onboard US Navy Aircraft Carriers and Submarines?
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SN Greg Wright
PO1 John Miller As you say, PO1, we have, and have had for many years, FISSION nuclear power -- the splitting of heavy, unstable atoms into lighter ones. This leaves radioactive by-products, as you know. FUSION nuclear power, on the other hand, combines lighter elements into heavier ones...and there is no nasty byproduct. This is the one we don't have yet, but know with certainty exists -- the sun (and every other star in the universe) runs on fusion. Fusion is the holy grail of energy for the foreseeable future. At least until we can manufacture (and contain) antimatter economically.
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PO1 John Miller
SN Greg Wright
Thanks for putting that in terms I can understand! If that's the case these scientists need to start watching episodes of Star Trek: The Next Generation and Star Trek: Voyager. Both Geordi La Forge and B'Elana Torres were really good at obtaining fusion in their ship's warp cores! :)
Thanks for putting that in terms I can understand! If that's the case these scientists need to start watching episodes of Star Trek: The Next Generation and Star Trek: Voyager. Both Geordi La Forge and B'Elana Torres were really good at obtaining fusion in their ship's warp cores! :)
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well .... let hope so. that would destroy a lot of wealth. Especially the renewable energy business, that we dump billion and billions on. lol
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