Posted on Feb 16, 2015
Digging into Generational Theory and Presidential politics a bit further.
3.07K
3
2
1
1
0
To recap, here's the list of current possible Democrat candidates:
Bernie Sanders b. 1941
Joe Biden b. 1942
Ed Rendell b. 1944
Jim Webb b. 1946
Hillary Rodham Clinton b. 1947
Jeanne Shaheen b. 1947
Al Franken b. 1951
Luis Gutiérrez b. 1953
Mark Warner b. 1954
Brian Schweitzer b. 1955
Jay Nixon b. 1956
Andrew Cuomo b. 1957
Janet Napolitano b. 1957
Maggie Hassan b. 1958
Tim Kaine b. 1958
Rahm Emanuel b. 1959
Amy Klobuchar b. 1960
George Clooney b. 1961
Tammy Baldwin b. 1962
Martin O'Malley b. 1963
Steve Bullock b. 1966
And here's the list of Generation X members in that list that, historically speaking, have the best shot at winning a national contest.
George Clooney--Actor
Tammy Baldwin--US Senator (WI)
Martin O'Malley--Gov. Maryland
Steve Bullock--Gov Montana
And the current list of possible Republican candidates:
Peter King b. 1944
George Pataki b. 1945
Herman Cain b. 1945
Donald Trump b. 1946
John R. Bolton b. 1948
Jim Gilmore b. 1949
Mitch Daniels b. 1949
Rick Perry b. 1950
Ben Carson b. 1951
John Kasich b. 1952
Rick Scott b. 1952
Jeb Bush b. 1953
Carly Fiorina b. 1954
Lindsey Graham b. 1955
Mike Huckabee b. 1955
Michele Bachmann b. 1956
Bob Ehrlich b. 1957
Rick Santorum b. 1958
Rick Snyder b. 1958
Mike Pence b. 1959
Susana Martinez b. 1959
Chris Christie b. 1962
Rand Paul b. 1963
Sarah Palin b. 1964
Scott Walker b. 1967
Ted Cruz b. 1970
Bobby Jindal b. 1971
Marco Rubio b. 1971
The Gen Xers:
Chris Christie--Gov. New jersey
Rand Paul--US Senator (KY)
Sarah Palin--Former Gov. Alaska
Scott Walker--Gov. Wisconsin
Ted Cruz--US Senator (TX)
Bobby Jindal--Gov. Louisiana
Marco Rubio--US Senator (FL)
As I stated before, this is not to say that either party would not nominate anyone from the list, but historically speaking, the ones identified are the ones with the best chance.
Best chance, in this case means, that if one party chooses one of these, or some other yet to emerge, Generation X member as their candidate, and the other party chooses an older cohort member, the great likely hood is for the Gen X candidate to win--it's only gone the other way twice before.
What if both parties choose candidates from older generations? That's what happened in 1848 and resulted in the election of Zachary Taylor, and one of the reasons I think Polk was elected early. Such a result could indicate the early election of Barack Obama as a Gen X member, but, first, he was elected against a Silent generation member, McCain two cohorts older, and then re-elected against a Boom generation member, Romney. This seems a clear indication that this is the age of Generation X leadership.
The oldest Millennials will be just barely eligible to run for the Presidency (must be over 35 years old on Inauguration day), those born between 20 Jan 1982 and 31 Dec 1982, in fact, so a very narrow set. The two Millennials in the House, Patrick Murphy (FL18-D, b. 30 Mar 83) and Elise Stefanik (NY21-R, b. 2 Jul 84) won't be eligible, and the youngest serving Governor is Nikkie Haley, definitely a Gen Xer at 45 by Inauguration Day. Possible, but unlikely that the Millennials will upset Gen X in this cycle. Millennials will continue to increase in importance though, as a voting block--they've been aging past 27 years old--the point when most Americans who vote, start to take voting seriously.
Bernie Sanders b. 1941
Joe Biden b. 1942
Ed Rendell b. 1944
Jim Webb b. 1946
Hillary Rodham Clinton b. 1947
Jeanne Shaheen b. 1947
Al Franken b. 1951
Luis Gutiérrez b. 1953
Mark Warner b. 1954
Brian Schweitzer b. 1955
Jay Nixon b. 1956
Andrew Cuomo b. 1957
Janet Napolitano b. 1957
Maggie Hassan b. 1958
Tim Kaine b. 1958
Rahm Emanuel b. 1959
Amy Klobuchar b. 1960
George Clooney b. 1961
Tammy Baldwin b. 1962
Martin O'Malley b. 1963
Steve Bullock b. 1966
And here's the list of Generation X members in that list that, historically speaking, have the best shot at winning a national contest.
George Clooney--Actor
Tammy Baldwin--US Senator (WI)
Martin O'Malley--Gov. Maryland
Steve Bullock--Gov Montana
And the current list of possible Republican candidates:
Peter King b. 1944
George Pataki b. 1945
Herman Cain b. 1945
Donald Trump b. 1946
John R. Bolton b. 1948
Jim Gilmore b. 1949
Mitch Daniels b. 1949
Rick Perry b. 1950
Ben Carson b. 1951
John Kasich b. 1952
Rick Scott b. 1952
Jeb Bush b. 1953
Carly Fiorina b. 1954
Lindsey Graham b. 1955
Mike Huckabee b. 1955
Michele Bachmann b. 1956
Bob Ehrlich b. 1957
Rick Santorum b. 1958
Rick Snyder b. 1958
Mike Pence b. 1959
Susana Martinez b. 1959
Chris Christie b. 1962
Rand Paul b. 1963
Sarah Palin b. 1964
Scott Walker b. 1967
Ted Cruz b. 1970
Bobby Jindal b. 1971
Marco Rubio b. 1971
The Gen Xers:
Chris Christie--Gov. New jersey
Rand Paul--US Senator (KY)
Sarah Palin--Former Gov. Alaska
Scott Walker--Gov. Wisconsin
Ted Cruz--US Senator (TX)
Bobby Jindal--Gov. Louisiana
Marco Rubio--US Senator (FL)
As I stated before, this is not to say that either party would not nominate anyone from the list, but historically speaking, the ones identified are the ones with the best chance.
Best chance, in this case means, that if one party chooses one of these, or some other yet to emerge, Generation X member as their candidate, and the other party chooses an older cohort member, the great likely hood is for the Gen X candidate to win--it's only gone the other way twice before.
What if both parties choose candidates from older generations? That's what happened in 1848 and resulted in the election of Zachary Taylor, and one of the reasons I think Polk was elected early. Such a result could indicate the early election of Barack Obama as a Gen X member, but, first, he was elected against a Silent generation member, McCain two cohorts older, and then re-elected against a Boom generation member, Romney. This seems a clear indication that this is the age of Generation X leadership.
The oldest Millennials will be just barely eligible to run for the Presidency (must be over 35 years old on Inauguration day), those born between 20 Jan 1982 and 31 Dec 1982, in fact, so a very narrow set. The two Millennials in the House, Patrick Murphy (FL18-D, b. 30 Mar 83) and Elise Stefanik (NY21-R, b. 2 Jul 84) won't be eligible, and the youngest serving Governor is Nikkie Haley, definitely a Gen Xer at 45 by Inauguration Day. Possible, but unlikely that the Millennials will upset Gen X in this cycle. Millennials will continue to increase in importance though, as a voting block--they've been aging past 27 years old--the point when most Americans who vote, start to take voting seriously.
Posted 10 y ago
Read This Next