Posted on Nov 7, 2017
Anyone concerned about what Russia’s long game might be?
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Whatcha up to there Ivan?
A few years back, one of our leading presidential candidates stated that Russia was our greatest threat/adversary; the political opposition laughed-sometimes literally. Not too many are laughing now. Whether or not Russia had any top level effect on the last election remains to be seen, but it’s beyond question that they have actively been trying to sow discord in our country and others. They have a presence on all social media platforms—I’m sure that includes this one (Good morning Ivan!)—and have been rather busy of late leveraging our divisions. Add to this, their actions in Georgia, Ukraine, and their newest military test-bed, Syria. Lastly, they have spent the last few years pumping up R&D for military applications and are starting to field some impressive hardware (I give credit where it’s due).
To what end?
What is their 5-10-20 year vision? Parity with the US and a return to the level of power and respect enjoyed by the USSSR? Or could it be a grander, darker, scheme? Is our view of modern Russia’s intentions affected by whether or not we are old enough to remember the old Soviet Union?
What sayeth ye? (Ivan, butt-out on this one.)
A few years back, one of our leading presidential candidates stated that Russia was our greatest threat/adversary; the political opposition laughed-sometimes literally. Not too many are laughing now. Whether or not Russia had any top level effect on the last election remains to be seen, but it’s beyond question that they have actively been trying to sow discord in our country and others. They have a presence on all social media platforms—I’m sure that includes this one (Good morning Ivan!)—and have been rather busy of late leveraging our divisions. Add to this, their actions in Georgia, Ukraine, and their newest military test-bed, Syria. Lastly, they have spent the last few years pumping up R&D for military applications and are starting to field some impressive hardware (I give credit where it’s due).
To what end?
What is their 5-10-20 year vision? Parity with the US and a return to the level of power and respect enjoyed by the USSSR? Or could it be a grander, darker, scheme? Is our view of modern Russia’s intentions affected by whether or not we are old enough to remember the old Soviet Union?
What sayeth ye? (Ivan, butt-out on this one.)
Russia
Geopolitics / International Relations
Cold War
Edited 7 y ago
Posted 7 y ago
Responses: 13
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A major failing on our part (the US) is we tend to believe other people think just as we do. We saw in the past (especially WWII, Korea, and Vietnam) that they don't. Sadly, we have not learned from our history.
Russia does not think or believe as we think they do/should. They are a nation that paid a tremendous price in previous wars. They are culturally afraid of foreign powers. They have been invaded a number of times, each time extracting a terrible toll.
So, what is their game-plan? Only a strong scholar in Russian history and social culture could come close to an accurate estimate. I can't and won't.
Russia does not think or believe as we think they do/should. They are a nation that paid a tremendous price in previous wars. They are culturally afraid of foreign powers. They have been invaded a number of times, each time extracting a terrible toll.
So, what is their game-plan? Only a strong scholar in Russian history and social culture could come close to an accurate estimate. I can't and won't.
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SGT Dave Tracy
Playing off of that, Russia had a rather ingenious way of dealing with invaders like Napoleon and the Nazis, by having successive defensive lines fall back, building on one another, and stripping their territory of anything their enemy can use (scorched Earth). The vast landscape, environmental conditions, over-extended supply lines, progressively harder defenses would wear down their opponent to such a point that they--at best--could no longer go on.
To highlight it's effectiveness, Napoleon's Grande Armée went into to Russia with over 680,000, and roughly only 27,000 limped out (thanks for the numbers Wikipedia!).
To highlight it's effectiveness, Napoleon's Grande Armée went into to Russia with over 680,000, and roughly only 27,000 limped out (thanks for the numbers Wikipedia!).
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Take over of Crimea was purely economical. Russia needed a warm water port to help their ocean shipping industry. Same for their decision to manage a percentage of US uranium business. Russia's economy relies mainly on oil and natural gas. Low oil prices is harming revenue. Exports of natural gas to Europe is keeping Russia afloat. Which is why opposition to Ukraine is weak. Russia needs Crimea to build a gas pipeline to Middle East with links to North Africa.
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SGT Dave Tracy
So leveraging actions today for economic gains down the line is your thoughts on Russia's long-term goals goals then? I don't know to what degree I would agree, you present a reasonable argument.
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As a kid I remember hearing about Russia (USSR) " We don't have to invade the U.S., the U.S. will fall from the inside." Just waiting on the side lines waiting for the implosion.
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SGT Dave Tracy
Well, history shows that eventually, all civilizations fall, but that would require a REAL long range vision! (Maybe that's why they're sowing discord...they're tired of waiting!)
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