If I submit an AGR packet, how likely is it to be approved?

If your goal is to stay in and be on active duty, then why not switch over to RA? You have a lot more control over your career and duty assignments in Regular Army vs AGR. AGR is great if you're already in the reserves and have something steady going. But, if you're planning on leaving the Reserves unless you can get that AGR spot, just go active

It’s all dependent on the need for your MOS and pay grade. Even then it’s a process. You could be recommended but still not slotted in an AGR position. There isn’t any one case that’s typical. I’ve known Soldiers who have submitted packet after packet and finally received an AGR offer after 2-3 years. I myself applied and got an offer in 6 months. There doesn’t seem to be any way of determining how likely you are to get a slot.

I have found that with AGR is all about who knows you, your reputation, and who you can call for a favor. Especially if it’s a supply gig or admin. Good luck