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The recent execution of Cleric Nimr has brought to the surface the tensions between the two. They have been facing off in other areas, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq by supporting opposing factions and through direct Saudi action against Iranian backed Houthi in Yemen.
The fracture between the two has led to greater divide between the Sunni and Shia camps everywhere. Other countries have become involved by recalling their diplomats from Iran and giving the Iranian diplomats 48 hours to leave the country.
The ceasing of diplomatic relations has given each country the clearance to openly be hostile with each other and to take openly confrontational positions against each other.
The increasingly hostile interaction between the two countries will lead to more conflict between these groups in Iraq. This conflict will interfere directly with the ability of Iraqi forces to continue to engage ISIS in Iraq.
The fracture between the two has led to greater divide between the Sunni and Shia camps everywhere. Other countries have become involved by recalling their diplomats from Iran and giving the Iranian diplomats 48 hours to leave the country.
The ceasing of diplomatic relations has given each country the clearance to openly be hostile with each other and to take openly confrontational positions against each other.
The increasingly hostile interaction between the two countries will lead to more conflict between these groups in Iraq. This conflict will interfere directly with the ability of Iraqi forces to continue to engage ISIS in Iraq.
Middle East
Conflict
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Iraq
Edited 9 y ago
Posted 9 y ago
Responses: 9
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If anything, I think it might cause Iran to redouble their efforts to assist Iraq in clearing ISIS out of it's territory. The last thing Iran wants is to have to sweat multiple fronts at the same time. They are already under a fair amount of strain attempting to sustain operations in Iraq and Syria and support their Houthi friends in Yemen. Notice that Hezbollah has been quiet lately? That's because Iran's attention is focused elsewhere.
Iran lacks the capacity to be everywhere, and they compensate for that by equipping and utilizing proxies. They will be motivated to be decisively engaged in Iraq in order to free up assets and resources to confront any Saudi moves elsewhere.
Iran lacks the capacity to be everywhere, and they compensate for that by equipping and utilizing proxies. They will be motivated to be decisively engaged in Iraq in order to free up assets and resources to confront any Saudi moves elsewhere.
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The map tells the whole story, who's caught in the middle of aggression.
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As you stated, it only exacerbates the problem by increasing sectarian tensions. The current trend in the middle east, IMHO, is moving toward segregated countries with the Sunni on the south of the peninsula and the Shia to the north. At this point, it is hard to imagine that Iraq or Syria remain countries in their current configuration.
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CPT (Join to see)
CW3 (Join to see) Extending this conversation I think you are correct. What then happens to the other groups? Then will we see a migration further north and the Kurdistan region cease to exist or that it's "borders" are redefined as well?
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CW3 (Join to see)
CPT (Join to see) I think the Kurds will carve out a little chunk of land in northern Iraq/eastern Syria...they've already done everything but get it on google maps. However, a true Kurdistan needs at least an oil field or two, and that will be the biggest problem with them forming their own internationally recognized country. Also, the Turks are more opposed to a Kurdistan than the Arabs or Persians. Unless the west or Russia is willing to commit serious resources (both monetary and human capital) to preserving the current middle east, I really don't see how it emerges intact.
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CPT (Join to see)
CW3 (Join to see) - When we start adding Turkey into the mix it becomes more complicated. Turkey is fighting PKK and hostile toward the Syrian Kurds who are aligned with each other and fighting IS, while they are supporting the US via airbase use against IS and are on good terms with Peshmerga, who are fighting IS. It seems Turkey is conflicted, fighting against two components who are fighting IS, while it supports two others that are fighting IS. What does this tell us?
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CW3 (Join to see)
Foreign Policy is complicated, and sometimes there is only the best of the worst solutions.
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