Posted on Mar 27, 2023
Here's how your tax bill could change under Biden's budget
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I'm focused on the fact that built into his plan is that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will expire in 2025. The detractors will call it the "Trump tax cut plan for the rich" because it lowered the federal corporate income tax rate down to 21%, but all I know is that my taxes went down because the standard deduction doubled as well as the child tax credit.
I'll wait and see what shakes out, but according to the IRS, the reduction I saw was right in line with the rest in my percentile bracket. A lot of people don't believe they got one, but even the New York Times set the record right (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/14/business/economy/income-tax-cut.html).
I know the Tax Policy Center skews left, which is why I balance analysis with the Tax Foundation which is center-right. Between the two I figure I'll get an accurate picture (https://taxfoundation.org/biden-budget-tax-proposals-analysis/)
"Across the major provisions we modeled, we estimate the budget raises $2.4 trillion of tax revenue from corporations and $1.4 trillion from individuals from 2023 through 2033.
We estimate the tax changes in the president’s budget would reduce long-run GDP by 1.3 percent. Raising the corporate income tax rate to 28 percent is the largest driver of the negative long-run effects, reducing long-run GDP by 0.7 percent.
The budget would decrease American incomes (as measured by gross national product, or GNP) by 1.5 percent in the long run. The reduction in the budget deficit increases American incomes by about 0.01 percent but is offset by a greater reduction in incomes due to the tax increases.
The budget would reduce the capital stock by 2.4 percent, wages by 1.0 percent, and full-time equivalent employment by about 335,000 jobs."
So, Good and Bad.
Good: They also predict a reduction of the deficit in the plan ($2.5T over 10 years)
Bad: 1.3% decline in GDP, 1% reduction in wages and 335k jobs lost,
The additional $2.3T in spending and new tax credits will be offset by a projected $4.8T in additional taxes (i.e., $2.5T in deficit reduction).
However, the cautionary tale is that spending is a given and savings are always a best guess and at least $1T of the projected is from " two highly uncertain sources, the billionaire minimum tax and the UTPR, neither of which have been implemented in the U.S. or elsewhere, leaving little to go on for revenue estimation purposes."
I'll wait and see what shakes out, but according to the IRS, the reduction I saw was right in line with the rest in my percentile bracket. A lot of people don't believe they got one, but even the New York Times set the record right (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/14/business/economy/income-tax-cut.html).
I know the Tax Policy Center skews left, which is why I balance analysis with the Tax Foundation which is center-right. Between the two I figure I'll get an accurate picture (https://taxfoundation.org/biden-budget-tax-proposals-analysis/)
"Across the major provisions we modeled, we estimate the budget raises $2.4 trillion of tax revenue from corporations and $1.4 trillion from individuals from 2023 through 2033.
We estimate the tax changes in the president’s budget would reduce long-run GDP by 1.3 percent. Raising the corporate income tax rate to 28 percent is the largest driver of the negative long-run effects, reducing long-run GDP by 0.7 percent.
The budget would decrease American incomes (as measured by gross national product, or GNP) by 1.5 percent in the long run. The reduction in the budget deficit increases American incomes by about 0.01 percent but is offset by a greater reduction in incomes due to the tax increases.
The budget would reduce the capital stock by 2.4 percent, wages by 1.0 percent, and full-time equivalent employment by about 335,000 jobs."
So, Good and Bad.
Good: They also predict a reduction of the deficit in the plan ($2.5T over 10 years)
Bad: 1.3% decline in GDP, 1% reduction in wages and 335k jobs lost,
The additional $2.3T in spending and new tax credits will be offset by a projected $4.8T in additional taxes (i.e., $2.5T in deficit reduction).
However, the cautionary tale is that spending is a given and savings are always a best guess and at least $1T of the projected is from " two highly uncertain sources, the billionaire minimum tax and the UTPR, neither of which have been implemented in the U.S. or elsewhere, leaving little to go on for revenue estimation purposes."
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Yes, according to this analysis, those in the bottom half will see modest tax savings (between $1-$45 per month). If they still have a job....
The radical increase in tax burden for the job creators is pretty much guaranteed to cause them to create less jobs, and possibly eliminate some of the jobs they had already created. And wage growth is also highly likely to stagnate, ESPECIALLY at the lower income jobs.
Instead of a 50c / hour wage increase (amounting to $82 / month) you get a $40 / month tax savings. Congratulations!
But sure, we can sell it as almost no change except the super wealthy will be paying a lot more.
I am not saying the rich should be paying less. But the top 10% already pays something like 80% of all income taxes (I'm too lazy to go re-find the stats, so I will leave it at "something like"). It's not like they aren't paying their share already. We don't need to tax them into mediocrity. This isn't Harrison Bergeron - or at least it shouldn't be.
The radical increase in tax burden for the job creators is pretty much guaranteed to cause them to create less jobs, and possibly eliminate some of the jobs they had already created. And wage growth is also highly likely to stagnate, ESPECIALLY at the lower income jobs.
Instead of a 50c / hour wage increase (amounting to $82 / month) you get a $40 / month tax savings. Congratulations!
But sure, we can sell it as almost no change except the super wealthy will be paying a lot more.
I am not saying the rich should be paying less. But the top 10% already pays something like 80% of all income taxes (I'm too lazy to go re-find the stats, so I will leave it at "something like"). It's not like they aren't paying their share already. We don't need to tax them into mediocrity. This isn't Harrison Bergeron - or at least it shouldn't be.
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SFC Casey O'Mally
COL Randall C. - Thanks for the numbers... but it's 73.7. They made 49.5% of income ... but paid 73.7% of all income taxes.
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SFC Casey O'Mally
COL Randall C. It happens to the best of us. At least you weren't briefing the General when it happened. (Been there, done that.)
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