Posted on Apr 24, 2020
New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says
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Coronavirus COVID19
Posted >1 y ago
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Wait. Wut?! Are you telling me that it is not 1 or 2% of NY that is infected but 13 or 14%?! Woah....
<flips paper over, does some quick math />
That means, even with the reporting of any death as being contributed to Covid19 the more accurate death rate is not the 7.7% I've been hearing. (11,267 deaths for 146,000 confirmed cases = 7.7%). Rather, if we take the population of NYC at 8.399 million as reported in 2018 and the 13.9% reported as having had the corona virus - wait, really - 1,175,000 have been infected. That puts the death rate at 0.95% of the infected population. That is 1/2 of the death rate for the flu.
<flips paper over, does some quick math />
That means, even with the reporting of any death as being contributed to Covid19 the more accurate death rate is not the 7.7% I've been hearing. (11,267 deaths for 146,000 confirmed cases = 7.7%). Rather, if we take the population of NYC at 8.399 million as reported in 2018 and the 13.9% reported as having had the corona virus - wait, really - 1,175,000 have been infected. That puts the death rate at 0.95% of the infected population. That is 1/2 of the death rate for the flu.
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SSG Robert Webster
SSgt (Join to see) Though I commend you for your efforts, you are off by a factor of 2. Part of it is because the percentage that you used against the NYC population figure was not correct. According to the report it is 21% for NYC and 14% (for the state, overall). And even Cuomo admitted that it brings the mortality rate down to 0.5%, half of what your rough math did.
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I would be willing the to bet that it may be even higher if they expanded this study.
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