Will there ever be a threefold war between India and Pakistan on the one side, and India against China on the other side?

CPT Gurinder (Gene) Rana — Wed, 21 Apr 2021 13:53:35 -0400

A US think-tank has forecast a ‘large-scale war’ between India and Pakistan over the next five years. It has also predicted the possibility of India and China ‘slipping into a conflict’.

India and China began disengaging troops, tanks and artillery from the northern and southern banks of the Pangong Lake on February 10, after a tense nine-month standoff. India and Pakistan agreed to adhere to a 2003 ceasefire on February 24 this year after one of the largest number of border firing incidents over the past year. Tensions between the three nuclear-armed rivals, however, remain mainly over the world’s largest disputed boundary.

The five-year regional outlook was released by the Strategic Futures Group, a think-tank of the National Intelligence Council, on April 7. It warns that India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants, ‘especially following a terrorist attack that the Indian Government judges to be significant.’

The report outlines that the ability of Pakistan-based terrorists to conduct attacks, New Delhi’s resolve to punish Islamabad after such an attack and Islamabad’s determination to defend itself are likely to persist and may increase. ‘Miscalculation by both governments could prompt a breakdown in the deterrence that has restricted conflict to levels each side judges it can manage. A full-scale war could inflict damage that would have economic and political consequences for years.’

Response by SGT Private RallyPoint Member made Apr 21 at 2021 2:54 PM

SGT Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 21 Apr 2021 14:54:37 -0400

God, let it not ever happen.

Response by SGT Private RallyPoint Member made Apr 21 at 2021 3:00 PM

SGT Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 21 Apr 2021 15:00:24 -0400

India and China is a definite possibility but there is nothing to gain from an India vs Pakistan dust up.

Response by LTC Private RallyPoint Member made Apr 21 at 2021 3:09 PM

LTC Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 21 Apr 2021 15:09:18 -0400

I deliver to a grocer who is Muslim and his CO worker is Sikh. Pakistan will take the side of China in their opinion. Pakistan will fight for china.

Response by LTC Private RallyPoint Member made Apr 21 at 2021 3:10 PM

LTC Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 21 Apr 2021 15:10:06 -0400

Both people I spoke to are from India.

Response by LTC Private RallyPoint Member made Apr 21 at 2021 3:32 PM

LTC Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 21 Apr 2021 15:32:53 -0400

If we have a minor nuclear war like this, they better throw out the green bad deal because the Earth is going to have 20 years of cooler weather and why waste money on this when we should be rebuilding our society after a nuclear war......

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/110223-nuclear-war-winter-global-warming-environment-science-climate-change

110223-nuclear-war-winter-global-warming-environment-science-climate-change

Response by CPT Lawrence Cable made Apr 21 at 2021 3:52 PM

CPT Lawrence Cable — Wed, 21 Apr 2021 15:52:04 -0400

Don't overlook Indonesia as a belligerent against China. Don't see a lot of it in the US News, but Indonesia has probably been as forceful with China on it's claims in the China Sea had any of the other participates. I don't see them siding with India, but Indonesia and Malaya have generally stayed at arms distance from the Middle East and Central Asia mess, although Indonesia's conduct in East Timor leaves a lot to be desired.
I'm not sure that China's conventional forces are as formidable as they like to project. Haven't fought a real war since Korea, they got their butts handed to them during their border conflict with Vietnam and haven't done well in the past in India.

Response by SSG Edward Tilton made Apr 21 at 2021 3:54 PM

SSG Edward Tilton — Wed, 21 Apr 2021 15:54:10 -0400

When India became Independent, KASHMIR, was an exception. The population was 80% Moslem while the royalty were Hindu. Both India and Pakistan were using the British map in the Ladak while China had their own boundary. There was SUPPOSED TO BE a supervised election in 1955 but India refused and sealed it off. India was trying to get any Moslems or Asians to leave while subsidizing Indian settlement. They didn’t do all that well and neither China or Pakistan have gone away. Other than Kashmiri independence I know of no solution

Response by Lt Col Charlie Brown made Apr 22 at 2021 6:13 AM

Lt Col Charlie Brown — Thu, 22 Apr 2021 06:13:05 -0400

I for one, certainly hope not.

Response by SSG Edward Tilton made Apr 22 at 2021 10:01 AM

SSG Edward Tilton — Thu, 22 Apr 2021 10:01:40 -0400

You are putting India and Pakistan on the same side? In what world?

Response by SGT Michael Van Geertruy made Apr 24 at 2021 12:12 PM

SGT Michael Van Geertruy — Sat, 24 Apr 2021 12:12:30 -0400

After some research, I was able to find the article in question at: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-5-year-regional-outlooks/s-asia After my assessment, I'll drop in the paragraphs that matter from the article.

As it happens, I'm writing a research paper for a university course on this topic, specifically, on the potential combined use military, economic, and political power by US, Australia, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and India to counter Pakistani and Chinese encroachment into "The Lac", an area near N India containing Kashmir, Ladakh, and Asksai Chin. This is the area where China-India tensions were high up until Feb, and also the area which is used by the Pakistani ISI to send terrorists into India to dissuade them from continued protection of historically Indian populations in Kashmir. My assessment concurs with that of the DNI, of the likelihood of a major conflict in that area. However, my assessment differs in that I discuss following the path of Chinese international competition by combining all international levers (economic, military, and political) in addition to forming a local coalition to bring force to the issues of The Lac and also of Chinese territorial expansion.

Here are the paragraphs that matter:
Potential for Miscalculation Leading to War

India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war neither side wants, especially following a terrorist attack that the Indian Government judges to be significant. The ability of Pakistan-based terrorists to conduct attacks, New Delhi’s resolve to punish Islamabad after such an attack, and Islamabad’s determination to defend itself are likely to persist and may increase. Miscalculation by both governments could prompt a breakdown in the deterrence that has restricted conflict to levels each side judges it can manage. A full-scale war could inflict damage that would have economic and political consequences for years.

Similarly, India and China may slip into a conflict that neither government intends, especially if military forces escalate a conflict quickly to challenge each other on a critical part of the contested border. In June 2020, a short military exchange that resulted in the deaths of at least 20 Indian soldiers exacerbated the strategic rivalry between Beijing and New Delhi and sharply affected international perceptions of both countries.

The Appeal of Chinese Economic Engagement

China is likely to remain the biggest source of development funding in South Asia, but it is less clear whether it will maintain its lead to the same extent. Factors affecting China’s lead include the extent of funding available from other sources such as Japan, the Gulf states, and the West; the level of scrutiny applied to governments when approving non-transparent loans from China; the publicly available information about the potential benefits and risks of major projects; and China’s willingness to prioritize investment in South Asia on the scale of the past 5-10 years.

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