What would North Korea have to do, short of invade South Korea, to provoke an invasion by the South?

2016-01-29T09:55:17-05:00

Things ramp up from time to time on the Peninsula and there is a fair amount of saber-rattling and propaganda from both sides - but it never really amounts to much. We know that if NK invades SK, the response would be swift and overwhelming.

But, what events might lead to an invasion by SK without NK crossing the border? Nuke tests? ICMB tests? Shooting down a "Patriot Express" flight?

Response by PO3 Private RallyPoint Member made Jan 29 at 2016 9:58 AM

2016-01-29T09:58:35-05:00

... you are not North Korean spy right? lol

Response by CPT Private RallyPoint Member made Jan 29 at 2016 10:29 AM

2016-01-29T10:29:46-05:00

MAJ Bryan Zeski They would attack first if they were anticipating a U.S./S.K. invasion. Their leadership would attack because they would feel they have nothing to lose and being preemptive is to their advantage.

Response by Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS made Jan 29 at 2016 10:41 AM

2016-01-29T10:41:00-05:00

By South Korea? Nothing. The long term goal of South Korea for North Korea is REUNIFICATION.

Nothing will jeopardize that goal. The only way SK will cross that border is if they are INVITED, a la Humanitarian Relief effort, or if NK invades first.

However... that doesn't mean that some "other world Power" won't cross that border if NK pulls the wrong stunt.

Response by MCPO Roger Collins made Jan 29 at 2016 10:53 AM

2016-01-29T10:53:06-05:00

I can not think of anything that would provoke the South Koreans to invade other than an attack from the North, by way of invasion or with stand off weapons. That would be tantamount to a loss of thousands of American troops still serving as a "tripwire". NK has nothing to lose by making threats and making deals that they will never full fill, And in return get what ever it is that they are extorting out of the rest of the world.

Response by Capt Seid Waddell made Jan 29 at 2016 10:56 AM

2016-01-29T10:56:48-05:00

There have already been provocations by the north that have been drawing an ever increasing response by the south; any significant attack by the north might lead to this action, especially if the North's nuclear capability is effectively countered by the U.S. or regional forces.

Response by MSG Brad Sand made Jan 29 at 2016 11:38 AM

2016-01-29T11:38:52-05:00

The collapse of the North. The South has no benefit in going into the North?

Response by SSG Laureano Pabon made Jan 29 at 2016 11:41 AM

2016-01-29T11:41:49-05:00

Thought I put this video here. About SK.
I can say that the sinking of the SK navel vessel was not necessary killing almost all the Naval Korean sailors on board.
While POTUS Bill Clinton did at one point wanted to know what damage would take place should the US combine with SK invade NK straight out, that was put on hold. The damage would result in the millions to both N/S Koreans and American troops.
SK has too much to loose should it invade.
NK however has something to loose, (The Leadership) would no longer be in power, because many of the people in NK (Civilian and many military) will over through them.
If baby huey steps down, NK and SK will unify with out question.
The secrets of NK are not just the weapons of mass destructions, but the prisons they have of there own people by 3 generations and south Korea is knowable of that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8gw5qNr6PU

South Korea Documentary HD Eng

Response by LTC Stephen F. made Jan 29 at 2016 11:44 AM

2016-01-29T11:44:52-05:00

(1) If they released chemical agent into shared waters; (2) released a chemical or biological agent in an aerosol form during the planting season; (3) or used their special operatives to assassinate leaders in South Korea these would be sufficient justification for SK to attack NK but that does not necessarily mean they would invade NK MAJ Bryan Zeski

Response by SGT Ronald Bacon made Jan 29 at 2016 12:00 PM

2016-01-29T12:00:06-05:00

Current leadership of the SK would not provoke a war with the north. I think nothing less than a formal decoration of war will make them move troops into NK. The only thing I would think is if they had spies in place to be able to take out key leadership roles with the ability to roll the power to a SK friendly person/persons but that sounds more like a Bond meets Jason Borne movie lol.

Response by SSgt Mark Lines made Jan 29 at 2016 12:49 PM

2016-01-29T12:49:53-05:00

I do not see South Korea ever invading the North. From what I have seen and read about, South Korea, while espousing unification, is more concerned with achieving its goals through diplomatic means. This would allow them to preserve their economy intact. The younger generations of S. Koreans do not understand or see a threat from N. Korea. This is the news from South Korea that we are seeing on television in Thailand. How accurate it is.... I do not know.

Response by CPT Ahmed Faried made Jan 29 at 2016 12:59 PM

2016-01-29T12:59:47-05:00

South Korea has incredible patience. The north has fired artillery on them, sunk their corvette and even kidnapped South Koreans. It shows the patience of a responsible country but leads me to believe that in an eventuality where the South Koreans can no longer abide it and they decide to attack, world opinion will be on their side.

Response by LTC Paul Labrador made Jan 29 at 2016 2:39 PM

2016-01-29T14:39:41-05:00

Shell Seoul.....

Response by SN Greg Wright made Jan 29 at 2016 2:42 PM

2016-01-29T14:42:17-05:00

MAJ Bryan Zeski I can't imagine anything that would make them invade, short of NK invading. Plus, I don't think we'd let them.

Response by 1SG Private RallyPoint Member made Jan 29 at 2016 5:41 PM

2016-01-29T17:41:13-05:00

Based upon previous history, I don't think there is anything the DPRK could do short of invade that would prompt that response. They'd have plenty to lose, and nothing to gain.

Response by SGT Rick Ash made Jan 29 at 2016 6:26 PM

2016-01-29T18:26:40-05:00

If the North keeps firing S. Korea may have to go North to defend themselves. And remember, WE have around 30K troops there. (I served a year there, had my wife and 4 year old son there in 6 days on an unaccompanied tour 77-78 ) We lived in four mud huts I had built in the ville, inside a 10' high wall with broken glass in cheap concrete with razor wire and 10' steel door with razor wire. I paid my rent with a can of coffee from the PX at Camp Howard. ( Now a ROK base only )

Response by SGT Thomas Lucken made Feb 29 at 2016 5:20 PM

2016-02-29T17:20:30-05:00

July 27th will make 63 years since the Armistice was signed to end the major fighting! Otherwise besides the ill-fated attempts by the NORKs to infiltrate to the south and/or fire on the south, it has been 63 years of saber rattling!

Imjin Scout - 83-84 and 87-90...... Contractor in Korea, 91-00.

Incidents on the DMZ involving US Troops (54 to 91)
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL9iCGLJOlNVRnE2GGgVDTeXAQ3GZKD9E1

The 2nd Forgotten Korean War "Incidents" 1954 to 1991

The videos cover a span of 37 plus years of incidents that happened on the Korean DMZ! Just a small percentage, many more were never reported and/or disappea...

Response by MSgt James Mullis made Feb 29 at 2016 5:45 PM

2016-02-29T17:45:33-05:00

It is unlikely to happen, but here is a possible scenario that could lead to an invasion of NK. First China would need to completely abandon North Korea both civilly and militarily. Then the rest of the world would need to quit providing food charity to North Korea. This would cause North Korean starvation on a massive scale. The net result would be either a civil war against the NK regime, or North Korea would start a war with South Korea (and anyone else they could shoot at), or their would be a general collapse of government services throughout the North. Either way South Korea (and its partners) would eventually "invade" the North and mop up.