What validity do you put in polls? Presidential, sporting events etc...

2016-07-10T10:12:34-04:00

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls.

Response by Capt Private RallyPoint Member made Jul 10 at 2016 10:14 AM

2016-07-10T10:14:11-04:00

Not much. It is too easy to sway a poll to come out the way someone wants it and they often come out the way the person paying for the poll wants.

Response by SFC Stephen King made Jul 10 at 2016 10:17 AM

2016-07-10T10:17:40-04:00

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/polling-the-polling-experts-how-accurate-and-useful-are-polls-these-days/

Polling the Polling Experts: How Accurate and Useful Are Polls These Days? - Knowledge@Wharton

Turn on the Internet, pick up your telephone or cell phone, read a newspaper or watch television: No matter what the communication vehicle is, polls and the reporting of poll results are ubiquitous. Yet how accurate are polls? Can they be manipulated? How do the Internet and the proliferation of cell phone users affectboth marketing and political polls? And which polls are the most reliable? Knowledge@Wharton interviewed the experts.

Response by TSgt Joe C. made Jul 10 at 2016 10:17 AM

2016-07-10T10:17:55-04:00

I don't put much into any type of polls to be honest.

Response by Sgt Thomas Greer made Jul 10 at 2016 10:30 AM

2016-07-10T10:30:49-04:00

Zero. Polls can be and are doctored to fit the agenda for whomever is using the data. Used to have the Harris Poll and the AP Poll which were run by neutral people. Now days, everything is politicized.

Response by Alan K. made Jul 10 at 2016 10:30 AM

2016-07-10T10:30:54-04:00

Not a lot as they are usually swayed by the poll takers.....

Response by PO3 Leroy Leftwich made Jul 10 at 2016 10:32 AM

2016-07-10T10:32:09-04:00

None, I can ask a question to anyone and receive different answers by how I inflect certain words. I can in fact get the answer I want by doing this.

Response by MSG Private RallyPoint Member made Jul 10 at 2016 11:16 AM

2016-07-10T11:16:31-04:00

I like to look at the questions asked and who the people selected for the poll. Do I really care how many illegal aliens wouldn't consider voting for Mr. Trump? Likewise do I care how many Conservatives think Secretary Clinton lied?
If asked correctly and to the right group, they can be helpful but of course ... Lies, damn lies and statistics is always in the back of my head.

Response by MCPO Roger Collins made Jul 10 at 2016 11:48 AM

2016-07-10T11:48:45-04:00

There were a couple that got it right in the past, Rasmussen and Larry Sabato, come to mind. However, with the advent of the anti-establishment revolt, no one has got it right. We are sick and tired of the polls that miss the mark or merely push polls to achieve the results the leanings of the polsters. Those that get it right remind me of the blind squirrel that finds a nut occasionally.

Response by LTC Private RallyPoint Member made Jul 10 at 2016 1:18 PM

2016-07-10T13:18:44-04:00

On any given Sunday, any team could win. Same with politics. Remember the old adage, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. You ask sheep leading questions...you will likely get the answers you seek. Same is true for most sports fans. Except Red Sox fans...they are rabid.

Response by SGT David A. 'Cowboy' Groth made Jul 10 at 2016 1:38 PM

2016-07-10T13:38:38-04:00

Not much.

Response by MCPO Private RallyPoint Member made Jul 10 at 2016 2:34 PM

2016-07-10T14:34:21-04:00

A friend worked for a polling place a long time ago. He said that for "exit" polls, they were told to wait for folks to walk of out whatever (election, movie, sporting event, whatever) that were actively talking about the event in a certain manner. Sometimes they'd wait for folks to walk out of a movie and be talking bad about it - or walk out of a sporting event and be talking positively about team X - and even those walking out of election sites who were talking in a particular manner about a certain politician.

Then, magically, the next day there'd be a news story about how 87% of the folks that voted thought that a candidate sucked - or that a movie got 89% positive reviews - or that North Notre Bama was the bestestest team on Earth.

I now totally ignore them.

Response by TSgt Christopher Holmes made Jul 10 at 2016 2:48 PM

2016-07-10T14:48:07-04:00

The only poll that counts is the final vote...and lately, that is even now questionable. All the rest are media agenda drive drivel. They poll area's they know are friendly to their agenda or they just make crap up. They aren't not required to actually prove they did a poll.

Response by Cpl Justin Goolsby made Jul 12 at 2016 10:30 AM

2016-07-12T10:30:05-04:00

I see polls as just a bias based on the sample size it was pulled from.

For example: Should Tom Brady be suspended from the Patriots for Deflategate?
New England Residents: Hell no... We love you Tom
Everyone else: Hell Yes... Cheating Tom and the Cheatriots... go back to cheaterville.

Most polls have some sort of bias to them already which is why they are selective on where they draw their responses from.

If you were doing an anti-gun poll, you'll probably draw your responses from liberals at Sandy Hook or Orlando. If you were pro-gun, you'd probably conduct your poll at an NRA headquarters or any place in Texas.

Polls generally have about as much validity as those Facebook quizzes which tell you which Hogwarts House you'd be sorted into.