Posted on Jan 6, 2016
What does the end-state of the Korean Peninsula look like and when and how should it be achieved?
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In light of the recent North Korean nuclear test, the world should be asking itself what to do about North Korea.
I think before anyone formulates a plan to do something, they should have a clear objective and measurable endstate. So, what IS a rational endstate for the Korean Peninsula?
Do we just let things sit as they have been - eternal conflict between two increasingly disparate nations? Something has to give at some point. If we just wait for that point, we aren't in control of it, should we do something?
Should South Korea take the initiative and engage North Korea militarily (without US interference or support - as to avoid the Chinese jumping in as well)?
Should China step in and take control of North Korea?
What is best for the world in the long run? What is best for Korea?
We've been doing this cat and mouse game with North Korea for half a century... staying the course doesn't seem to be working.
I think before anyone formulates a plan to do something, they should have a clear objective and measurable endstate. So, what IS a rational endstate for the Korean Peninsula?
Do we just let things sit as they have been - eternal conflict between two increasingly disparate nations? Something has to give at some point. If we just wait for that point, we aren't in control of it, should we do something?
Should South Korea take the initiative and engage North Korea militarily (without US interference or support - as to avoid the Chinese jumping in as well)?
Should China step in and take control of North Korea?
What is best for the world in the long run? What is best for Korea?
We've been doing this cat and mouse game with North Korea for half a century... staying the course doesn't seem to be working.
Posted in these groups: 
North Korea
Nuclear
North Korea Nuclear
Posted 9 y ago
Responses: 5
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It is the goal of both the United States and the DPRK to reunify Korea into one nation. Where we differ is on how to get there.
I think the ideal people to take point on this is the Germans. Their experience would be invaluable.
Of course, the Kim family only wants reunification on their terms, as they will not relinquish power easily. The whole country is under such tight control it has induced a mass neurosis. If revealed how the world really is, North Korean society would disintegrate.
I don't think the Kims really want a war or they'd have thrown one already. I think that they are attempting to secure their long-term dynastic rule, and the xenophobia they promote is a tool to achieve that end.
I think the ideal people to take point on this is the Germans. Their experience would be invaluable.
Of course, the Kim family only wants reunification on their terms, as they will not relinquish power easily. The whole country is under such tight control it has induced a mass neurosis. If revealed how the world really is, North Korean society would disintegrate.
I don't think the Kims really want a war or they'd have thrown one already. I think that they are attempting to secure their long-term dynastic rule, and the xenophobia they promote is a tool to achieve that end.
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MAJ Bryan Zeski
I might be crazy, but somewhere down deep, I think SK just needs to blitz north and take control. I have no doubt of the ability of the SK military to dismantle the NK military without too much trouble. I think once the illusion that KJU lives under is shattered, his people will flee across the border in droves and will assist the SK forces in weeding out the rest of the guerrilla troops in the forests.
The biggest threat is from localized nuclear detonations and chemical attacks. I think SK can handle those as well.
I think China will stay out of the fight as long as US forces aren't involved. As long as this remains a "Korean Unification Event" they will be inclined to stay put. China would probably be grateful that it's unstable cousin was put down, finally. Strategically, once the Korean Peninsula was secure, the US could reduce forces in the region which would take some pressure off of China.
The biggest threat is from localized nuclear detonations and chemical attacks. I think SK can handle those as well.
I think China will stay out of the fight as long as US forces aren't involved. As long as this remains a "Korean Unification Event" they will be inclined to stay put. China would probably be grateful that it's unstable cousin was put down, finally. Strategically, once the Korean Peninsula was secure, the US could reduce forces in the region which would take some pressure off of China.
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1SG (Join to see)
MAJ Bryan Zeski - You got it right in the opening line, sir. That course of action is nuts. I can't imagine that South Korea will simply subject it's civilian population to the kind of bombardment that Seoul would certainly endure in such an event. The casualties - especially if the DPRK starts flinging around chemicals - would be staggering. And for what? To take possession of a desolate wasteland full of brand-new mouths to feed? I don't think so. Security is important, but wow, what a mess that would make.
The North would surely not pussyfoot around if faced with an existential threat. It would be a bloodbath.
The North would surely not pussyfoot around if faced with an existential threat. It would be a bloodbath.
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MAJ Bryan Zeski
1SG (Join to see) - I'm not sure I disagree 1SG, but allow me to play devil's advocate for a moment.
NK continually threatens peace on the peninsula; it oppresses its people to the point of death, malnourished, and generally violates accepted human rights at every turn; it continues to develop nuclear weapons and technology in spite of world sanctions and condemnation, and has shown zero interest in stopped. Nuclear development and technology is increasing and the nuclear threat from NK is increasing. They claim to have graduated from atomic weapons to hydrogen bombs. They have demonstrated the limited ability to shoot long range missiles and have launched satellites into orbit. They are quickly developing the ability to deliver a global nuclear strike.
The #1 priority of the regime is the survival of the regime - at any cost. As the domestic situation in NK deteriorates, it will inevitably result in a popular revolution or rebellion. The rebellion will most likely be put down using military force against civilian populations including chemical weapons. The situation could quickly devolve into a Syria-esque conflict. If regime survival is threatened, it is highly likely that the regime would use its nuclear arsenal to maintain power or to cause damage and inflict casualties on perceived "enemies" to demonstrate it's strength.
Additionally, as the regime continues to develop nuclear technology, it's old technology can become a source of income through the sales of old nuclear weapons to fringe extremist groups who are enemies of the United States and the the western world - ie ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Taliban, etc. These groups could easily use these weapons to cause massive causalities in a major world city.
Bottom line is that increase nuclear capability in a regime known to have zero regard for human rights or any world outlook beyond personal survival is a clear and present danger to the United States and the world in general.
A key element in the decision to use force is timing. Right now, South Korea has the capability to dismantle the NK regime with minimal causalities (minimal as far as "war" is concerned). NK will undoubtedly attempt to cause civilian casualties in Seoul, but the probability of NK having a large number of functional long range weapons is minimal to moderate. Their nuclear stockpile is also small (but growing). A blitz-krieg type strike, without warning, and without hesitation once begun would quickly cut the ability of NK leadership to conduct command and control of the military forces and would leave military commanders at key sites on their own as to decide what to do.
Additionally, if the event is propagated as a "liberation" of the North Korean people from the tyrannical, oppressive and cruel dictatorship they are under, the world will have limited argument to oppose it - consider that the US invasion of Iraq was executed on much lower evidence and towards a much less heinous regime. By the time the UN could even get together to discuss the issue, the NK regime could be removed from power, the nuclear and chemical sites secured, destroyed, or deployed, and the people of NK receiving food and good from the South Korean reunification humanitarian groups. Once the border is broken, the reunification of Korea will be the primary objective of the South Korean forces.
China will posture and bluster and threaten military action to support North Korea, but in the end, a South Korean success in the reunification of the peninsula will be beneficial to them as well - and they know it. China is no longer the "communist first" country that it once was. Capitalism and trade are their future. A unified Korean Peninsula will only aid them. A stable Korea will reduce world tensions and increase world prosperity and will demonstrate a commitment to human rights as an example for other oppressive regimes.
NK continually threatens peace on the peninsula; it oppresses its people to the point of death, malnourished, and generally violates accepted human rights at every turn; it continues to develop nuclear weapons and technology in spite of world sanctions and condemnation, and has shown zero interest in stopped. Nuclear development and technology is increasing and the nuclear threat from NK is increasing. They claim to have graduated from atomic weapons to hydrogen bombs. They have demonstrated the limited ability to shoot long range missiles and have launched satellites into orbit. They are quickly developing the ability to deliver a global nuclear strike.
The #1 priority of the regime is the survival of the regime - at any cost. As the domestic situation in NK deteriorates, it will inevitably result in a popular revolution or rebellion. The rebellion will most likely be put down using military force against civilian populations including chemical weapons. The situation could quickly devolve into a Syria-esque conflict. If regime survival is threatened, it is highly likely that the regime would use its nuclear arsenal to maintain power or to cause damage and inflict casualties on perceived "enemies" to demonstrate it's strength.
Additionally, as the regime continues to develop nuclear technology, it's old technology can become a source of income through the sales of old nuclear weapons to fringe extremist groups who are enemies of the United States and the the western world - ie ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Taliban, etc. These groups could easily use these weapons to cause massive causalities in a major world city.
Bottom line is that increase nuclear capability in a regime known to have zero regard for human rights or any world outlook beyond personal survival is a clear and present danger to the United States and the world in general.
A key element in the decision to use force is timing. Right now, South Korea has the capability to dismantle the NK regime with minimal causalities (minimal as far as "war" is concerned). NK will undoubtedly attempt to cause civilian casualties in Seoul, but the probability of NK having a large number of functional long range weapons is minimal to moderate. Their nuclear stockpile is also small (but growing). A blitz-krieg type strike, without warning, and without hesitation once begun would quickly cut the ability of NK leadership to conduct command and control of the military forces and would leave military commanders at key sites on their own as to decide what to do.
Additionally, if the event is propagated as a "liberation" of the North Korean people from the tyrannical, oppressive and cruel dictatorship they are under, the world will have limited argument to oppose it - consider that the US invasion of Iraq was executed on much lower evidence and towards a much less heinous regime. By the time the UN could even get together to discuss the issue, the NK regime could be removed from power, the nuclear and chemical sites secured, destroyed, or deployed, and the people of NK receiving food and good from the South Korean reunification humanitarian groups. Once the border is broken, the reunification of Korea will be the primary objective of the South Korean forces.
China will posture and bluster and threaten military action to support North Korea, but in the end, a South Korean success in the reunification of the peninsula will be beneficial to them as well - and they know it. China is no longer the "communist first" country that it once was. Capitalism and trade are their future. A unified Korean Peninsula will only aid them. A stable Korea will reduce world tensions and increase world prosperity and will demonstrate a commitment to human rights as an example for other oppressive regimes.
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I would argue that our current course is working. NK is quiet in terms of world impact and having our forces in Korea has very strategic advantages aside from controlling NK. I imagine we will be there for years to come and I see no reason to start something there that in all honesty is a non threat at this point.
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MAJ Bryan Zeski
I'm not sure that a developing, uncontrolled and unstable nuclear power is exactly a non-threat... is it?
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Right now the best way to deal with North Korea (DPRK) is really to just let them be. A lot of what the government there is used to strengthen their resolve amongst their people. Most nations in the world do not want the Korean Peninsula to be unified. For South Korea it would completely ravage their economy. China doesn't want it because they don't want US troops on their border. Russia uses them for trade and for the same reason as China.
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MAJ Bryan Zeski
It would definitely put a strain on the South Korean economy initially, but would quickly turn into a boon for a unified Korea. All of the resources that are untapped in North Korea would then be available for use. Imagine all of the industry and development that could propel a united Korea to the forefront of the world. Would the US object to doubling its size overnight? Nope. More land, especially undeveloped land is critical, especially in an already overcrowded country like South Korea.
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