USAF Force distribution: Does it seem too "hard" or "harsh"?

SMSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 12:52:47 -0500

In a recent article for AFSA CMSAF Cody outlined the force distribution numbers that will be in effect starting with SMSgts this year (July 15). The breakdown was for SrA/SSgt/TSgt 5% would receive "Promote Now" (highest rating), 15% would receive "Must Promote" with no limit on the other 3 recommendations. For MSgts 10% will be stratified and 20% of SMSgt will be stratified.

My Question is does this seem too "hard" or "harsh"?

Response by SSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 24 at 2015 1:07 PM

SSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 13:07:10 -0500

I think it is a step in the right direction. Obviously the Force wants to promote the best first, hence the 5%, & I think those individuals deserve it. I also don't think it is the last change, just the first step, which is always the most painful.

Response by Maj Matt Hylton made Feb 24 at 2015 2:03 PM

Maj Matt Hylton — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 14:03:29 -0500

Do you know if he mentioned a revision to the AFI and when the new EPR forms would be released? That's been the biggest concerns I've heard from my enlisted guys so far.

While they take credence in what CMSAF has to say, until it is in writing in the AFI or an official AFPC memorandum to the AFI, I don't think many people are truly "believing" everything about the new updates to the system yet.

Response by CPT Aaron Kletzing made Feb 24 at 2015 2:08 PM

CPT Aaron Kletzing — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 14:08:17 -0500

Great thread!

Response by SGT Bryon Sergent made Feb 24 at 2015 2:46 PM

SGT Bryon Sergent — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 14:46:11 -0500

good luck guys.

Response by COL Jason Smallfield, PMP, CFM, CM made Feb 24 at 2015 2:52 PM

COL Jason Smallfield, PMP, CFM, CM — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 14:52:54 -0500

I can not speak to the USAF forced distribution but I can speak to what the Army does and why. Some thoughts:
- Promotion rates vary over time based upon supply and demand. Low supply and high demand in 2008 meant near 100% promotion rates. High supply and low demand in 1993/94 and 2015 means lower than historical average promotion rates across all cohorts (officer, warrant officer, enlisted).
- There have been some short sighted (nicer words than stupid) decisions over time. No box checks for company grade officers in the mid/late 2005-2010 and restricted file OERs for LTs are two examples in my opinion.
- No forced distribution generally results in inflated evaluations over time and places 100% of the promotion decision onto a board.
- Forced distribution on the senior rater helps to prevent evaluation inflation and helps the senior rater to have more of a vote in the promotion process.
- In the Army, no forced distribution and no box check merely meant that senior raters did not have the pressure on them to do their job of counseling their subordinates properly. Forced distribution helps to keep pressure on the senior raters to counsel properly since it is more obvious to the rated Soldier where they fall within the senior raters enumeration scale. More counseling is a good thing.
- Forced distribution and promotion rates, however, are NOT causally related. Promotion rates are more directly related to supply and demand issues. Soldiers who receive the second highest "must promote" versus "promote now" will get promoted in the low supply / high demand times but less likely in the other times.
- At the end of the day, I (and I believe most Soldiers) believe what the board results are telling me more so than what the senior leaders say the effect of a policy change will be. I am not saying that the senior leaders lie. I am saying that I believe evidence more than promises.

Response by MSgt Michael Durkee made Feb 24 at 2015 3:15 PM

MSgt Michael Durkee — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 15:15:37 -0500

Seeing the APR, then the EPR system and the promises that "this system won't become inflated" during my 24 years, I see it difficult to truly reach those percentages effectively. Oh sure, the percentages will be reached - I've just seen too many people rated up under the "Whole Person Concept" while others managed their responsibilities in the duty section.

Response by SSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 24 at 2015 4:18 PM

SSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 16:18:44 -0500

Time will tell how this works out. The issue is some raters will want to do right by their airmen and still attempt to give them the highest marks because they want to do the right thing while other raters will possibly give them appropriate ratings while the airman has done more than another that received a higher mark.

I don't know why the promotion system isn't the same across the board for all branches. Testing honestly doesn't promote the best, it promotes those who test better. Maybe the inability to test is an indictment on that Airman but I have met plenty who just couldn't test but were professionals and leaders through and through.

Response by TSgt Joshua Copeland made Feb 24 at 2015 4:30 PM

TSgt Joshua Copeland — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 16:30:43 -0500

The percentages matter less than how the Commander comes to who gets that top rating since it will basically become a golden ticket to promotion.

Example: My unit has 10 MSgts. So only one gets that top rating.

Who gets it?

Annual award winner? That could be 6 different people!
Who the CC knows best?
Last time up for promotion?
Checklist based?
What will the real discriminators be? PT score, work peformance, extra curriculars?

Response by TSgt Joshua Copeland made Feb 24 at 2015 4:33 PM

TSgt Joshua Copeland — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 16:33:52 -0500

Btw, do you have a link to the article?

Response by SSG Leonard J W. made Feb 24 at 2015 6:41 PM

SSG Leonard J W. — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 18:41:03 -0500

SMSgt Private RallyPoint Member, this might be a can of worms that you've just opened, Senior. I work with a lot of USAF 35EX personnel, and they are definitely up-in-arms about it.

If the rating chain favors you, and you're a decent NCO, then you will usually be a "Promote Now" (or "1/1" in the Army). If they don't like you, but you're an undeniable go-getter, then you might get a "Promote Now," but a "Must Promote" ("2/2" in the Army) is much more likely because their favorites will be the "Promote Now" individuals.

In my professional opinion and experience, stratification reinforces something that we have worked very hard to get rid of: the "Good Ole Boy" system. I've personally seen a lot of "fluff" bullet comments during my Army service. On paper, the top-notch individuals who are outside of the "circle" will meet the standard while the "run-of-the-mill" individuals will be "the best thing since sliced bread." Just my 2 cents...

Response by MSgt Jim Pollock made Feb 24 at 2015 11:09 PM

MSgt Jim Pollock — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 23:09:17 -0500

Hmmm...
I'm sensing this policy is borne the dubious and inconsistent stratification system we were working with for SNCO promotions (and officers BTW) ca. 2010.

Its a good change if specific rules regarding how folks will be stratified are codified in the AFI.

I recall strats reading, "My #2 of 75 SNCOs" or "My best MSgt," or even "My #3 instructor FE." This was further complicated by rater level. Senior rater endorser or regular Joe? It mattered (a lot for SNCOs) regardless of strat.

If this mess isn't straightened out and it's pushed down to the E-4 level??? Lol!! God help you all.

Response by SrA Andrea West made Feb 25 at 2015 5:08 AM

SrA Andrea West — Wed, 25 Feb 2015 05:08:59 -0500

Does anyone recall whether something similar happened during the post-Gulf War drawdown? IIRC, and mind you it has been a long time, a similar policy came about in that period.

Response by Lt Col Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 25 at 2015 7:44 AM

Lt Col Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 25 Feb 2015 07:44:44 -0500

I don't know if it's too harsh. But we definitely needed something other than giving everyone a firewall 5 unless they've got an article 15.

What is the normal promotion rate to SSgt/TSgt/MSgt? Does the 20% of promote recommendations track well with promotion statistics? Does it still leave room for someone with just a "promote" instead of "promote now" or "must promote" to make the next rank?

Officers have a "Definitely promote", "promote", and "do not promote". Getting the "definitely promote" gives you, essentially, a 100% success rate for promotion. The number for senior raters to hand out this year was 75%. Promotion to major was 92%. So even folks with a strong record who didn't get a "definitely promote" still got promoted.

On the other hand, officer promotions are basically one-and-done. If you don't make it on your first board, your career is probably over...somewhat different than enlisted promotions.

Response by Lt Col Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 26 at 2015 7:33 AM

Lt Col Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 26 Feb 2015 07:33:46 -0500

Having a top 20% seems right to me...its a widely accepted industry standard to identify your top performers.

I'm guessing there will likely be a heavy weighting towards education and PT scores given that those are objective factors. So apart from working hard and volunteering, I think airman should make sure they have their CCAF degree, are signed up for additional classes and are working out to get that 90+ PY score.

Response by MSgt Joanna Clute made Feb 26 at 2015 8:08 AM

MSgt Joanna Clute — Thu, 26 Feb 2015 08:08:52 -0500

In my career field, I value the guy who is always at work, ready to work far more than the one who volunteers for everything and is never there. I feel like we've been doing more with less and it's hard for me to push ppl to do extracurricular activities when they're doing more work, working longer hours, and deploying more often. Just my 2 cents.

Response by SSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 26 at 2015 1:43 PM

SSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 26 Feb 2015 13:43:42 -0500

I think it is a little different depending on where you work. As an OSS guy we work with a bunch of different AFSCs, and the fact that I am in Weather, not all of the 5s for OSSes will be going to Weather, but will be spread around. I think it will actually allow folks without 4/5s on their EPR to get promoted, especially if the rate of promotion is near or above 20% (certainly SSgts and on a rare occasion TSgts). I am really excited and maybe it is because I have less than 7 years of service, but I hope that this is a game changer and we get the cream of the crop being promoted.

Response by SMSgt Bryan Raines made Feb 26 at 2015 2:35 PM

SMSgt Bryan Raines — Thu, 26 Feb 2015 14:35:08 -0500

I'll believe it works when I see it. They did this, numbers of 5's, 4's 3's etc allowed to be given, back in 94 and it did not work. The stratification became political rather than merit based. Comments were made along the lines of " I just used up my 10%, 20% (or whatever the % was) and now I can't stratify someone who deserves it." "How can I not give my 1st Sgt, Squadron Supt, Group Supt, etc a stratification." Unless strict guidelines are issued and followed this is going to be interesting to observe. Much like herding cats.

Response by MSgt Steven Holt, NRP, CCEMT-P made Apr 14 at 2015 11:46 AM

MSgt Steven Holt, NRP, CCEMT-P — Tue, 14 Apr 2015 11:46:38 -0400

"The APR system will ensure our best and brightest will be promoted...."

"The APR has become over inflated. This new and improved EPR system will correct...."

"The EPR has become over inflated. This NEW AND IMPROVED sytem will ensure only the best and brightest get promot....."

Yeah. Heard it all before. Here's what I DO see happening with the new sytem: Only the Commander's Pet will be promoted. The rest will be left behind.

Response by Lt Col Jim Coe made Apr 14 at 2015 11:50 AM

Lt Col Jim Coe — Tue, 14 Apr 2015 11:50:08 -0400

As long as promotion rates are above 20%, then many "average" airmen will have promotion opportunities. Difficult part will be holding to standards over time; witness demise of officer "1-2-3" system in 1990s. The system died because senior leaders wouldn't live with the quotas for 1 and 2.

Response by MSgt Private RallyPoint Member made May 17 at 2015 10:58 AM

MSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Sun, 17 May 2015 10:58:59 -0400

It is pretty stupid to me, SMSgt Jacob Peeterse. I am a tech school instructor in a small detachment out of Tinker AFB. We are all in special duty slots and are supposed to be the "best of the best" teaching new Airmen. Now you're telling our supervision that they have to stratify all of us that have had great careers so far against each other, regardless of career field. I don't expect to get a high mark because I'm fairly new, but I almost guarantee that I would receive that same mark if I was back on the flightline. The other thing I'm tired of hearing is the Chiefs and Senior Master Sergeants(no offense) stating the the EPR system needs fixed, all while knowing that's exactly how the made their rank.

Response by SSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Jun 10 at 2015 7:35 PM

SSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 10 Jun 2015 19:35:00 -0400

I think the "top" people are going to be the ones that kiss ass but don't actually do any work. While the people that do all the work and are not kiss asses don't get the rating they deserve. (I've seen both, I don't fall in either category and just found out I made TSgt in only 6 years.) It just something I've seen, it seems to be most prevalent in Security Forces or Maintenance Squadrons.

Response by MSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Jun 11 at 2015 12:27 AM

MSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 11 Jun 2015 00:27:51 -0400

This just means it will be even MORE cut throat than it has already become. People in highly visible locations that leadership often sees will get the high marks even if then just sit on their butts. A hard charger that could be giving their all and might work nights, will most likely be overlooked...we can already see that happening!

Response by SMSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Jun 11 at 2015 5:05 PM

SMSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 11 Jun 2015 17:05:14 -0400

GSUs personnel will have a greater disadvantage being out of site of the Sr Rater in the chain. Those units that work in eye sight of them will be selected and strated ahead of other MSgts and SMSgts. For example; "Out of site out of mind!" If you don't believe me, that's fine because everyone has their own opinion about being promoted, but truly if your not seen on a daily basis then your not looked upon for the top selection!

Response by MSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Jun 11 at 2015 7:50 PM

MSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 11 Jun 2015 19:50:40 -0400

It doesn't seen to "hard" or "harsh" but since you can't eliminate the good ole boy club, you're screwing good people still. I think the whole person concept is what should be focused on, remember we are Airmen first, then our AFSCs. Not to take anything away from duty performance, but if you have an NCO that is great at his/her job and sucks as a supervisor, why should that person ever be NCOIC and over people. I think a (blind) subordinate ranking should be added, not for point purposes, but to give a note to the boards too. Just a thought!!!

Response by TSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Jun 18 at 2015 1:19 AM

TSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Thu, 18 Jun 2015 01:19:31 -0400

It will seem very difficult at first and many people will say it is unfair but the fact is the Air Force will still promote the same number of people. All this does is give the CC and other senior leaders more say on who they feel are ready for the promotion. Once again, the same number of people will be promoted regardless of the change. Do we really want the status quo or are we ready and willing to make the not so hard choices. It seems a lot like when TA was taken away for a few months. Everyone and their brother was complaining even though many of the ones that were leading the way complaining about TA never used it.

I hated the old system. I hated that if you rated your guy fairly and they truly were only "Above Average" then the next guy would give his guy that was average at best a Firewall 5 because that way he could just copy and paste the bullets. I hated knowing that the other TSgt in my shop that showed up and hung out when I was working my but off still got his 5 because much of what I did was also put on his EPR because "it was a shop achievement".

I am terrified of the GOB system and it will happen at times but with CCs and senior leaders picking the top guys it will not be as easy to have a GOB system as what you think. Plus I would rather compete with the few cases of high marks because of the GOB system then see another year where everyone is a 5. The last system helped the average and below average and hurt the best of the Air Force. I have seen so many people get promoted because they came to work and studied and that is all they did. It is nice to know that hard work may actually pay off...at least for a few years until we find a way to mess this system up too.