The Pentagon claims that the air campaign has killed 10,000 ISIS fighters. Your thoughts?

2015-06-03T17:24:41-04:00

From Long War Journal:

US Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed that “more than 10,000″ Islamic State fighters and commanders have been killed since the air campaign in Iraq began in August 2014 and subsequently in Syria in September 2014. If true, US intelligence estimates on the strength of the Islamic State are grossly underestimated. From Reuters:

Speaking after the coalition met in Paris, he said there had been a great deal of progress in the fight against Islamic State but that the group remained resilient and capable of taking the initiative.

“We have seen a lot of losses within Daesh since the start of this campaign, more than 10,000,” Blinken said on France Inter radio, using a mildly derogatory term for Islamic State. “It will end up having an impact.”
In September 2014, the CIA estimated that the Islamic State had somewhere between 20,000 to 31,500 fighters within its ranks. If Blinken’s estimate of the number of Islamic State fighters killed in the last nine months is accurate, then the Islamic State’s ranks, based on the number of fighters estimated by the CIA in September 2014, has been degraded by between one-third and one-half.

And yet, since September 2014, the Islamic State has gained ground in Syria and lost ground in some areas in Iraq while gaining in others. Overall, the Islamic State’s footprint in Iraq and Syria has increased since September 2014.

It has been obvious for some time that the CIA’s September 2014 analysis of the Islamic State’s numbers was a gross underestimate (In June 2014, when the Islamic State was storming throughout northern and central Iraq, the CIA put the Islamic State’s numbers at merely 10,000).

Last September, I noted that the Islamic State had to have more than 50,000 fighters in its ranks, and I was being conservative. This is the reason why:

Keep in mind that the Islamic State is actively fighting against two governments, as well as Hezbollah, the Peshmerga, the PKK/YPG, Iraqi militias, the Awakening, Syrian tribes, the Free Syrian Army, the Al Nusrah Front, the Islamic Front, and other groups, and now the US military, in an area the size of a large American state, with millions of people living there. There is no way the Islamic State could simultaneously fight on multiple fronts against numerous enemies with just several thousand fighters.
The exact number of Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria is not known, as the group doesn’t advertise it. But what is clear is that it is able to recruit and/or conscript from the local populations that it controls, and it is integrating large numbers of foreign fighters from all over the world. At the moment, given its recent successes, the Islamic State appears to be able to replace its battlefield losses.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/06/us-claims-10000-islamic-state-fighters-killed-since-start-of-air-campaign.php

Response by 1LT William Clardy made Jun 3 at 2015 6:08 PM

2015-06-03T18:08:43-04:00

My first thought is that there's a huge difference between 100,000 and 10,000.

That said, I still don't trust unverified claims of damage inflicted by aerial campaigns.

Response by GySgt Wayne A. Ekblad made Jun 3 at 2015 6:10 PM

2015-06-03T18:10:51-04:00

I think your discussion title should say 10,000 not 100,000 LTC Bink Romanick. ;-)

Response by SSG Roger Ayscue made Jun 3 at 2015 6:27 PM

2015-06-03T18:27:28-04:00

Ummm No

Response by PV2 Michael Nichols made Jun 3 at 2015 6:46 PM

2015-06-03T18:46:48-04:00

I call bull shit!

Response by LTC Samuel Escobar made Jun 3 at 2015 7:19 PM

2015-06-03T19:19:14-04:00

It doesnt matter whether you will 10,000 or 100K. The existing strategy against ISIL is not working, they continue to gain key areas as well as preading at a larger scale across the country. They have also figure out a way to hide from the Air strikes by conducing small unit tactics in populared areas and night movements....

Response by LTC Ed Ross made Jun 3 at 2015 7:36 PM

2015-06-03T19:36:10-04:00

As a Vietnam War combat veteran I know all about inflated body counts. Body count is not the right metric. Square miles controlled is what war is all about.

Response by CPT Ahmed Faried made Jun 3 at 2015 7:37 PM

2015-06-03T19:37:01-04:00

ISIS core fighters numbered at 25,000. Unless in the course of 18 months they've expanded their numbers by 50,000 I'd call this dubious.

Response by MAJ Ken Landgren made Jun 3 at 2015 7:39 PM

2015-06-03T19:39:46-04:00

Divide the virgins by 72 and you will get the body count.

Response by COL Ted Mc made Jun 3 at 2015 8:01 PM

2015-06-03T20:01:42-04:00

It used to be that the calculations went along the lines of

[1] "Is it dead?
[2] If so, can anyone prove that its a water buffalo?
[3] If no, then its a VC.".

Now it appears that the calculations go along the lines of

[1] "Is it dead?
[2] If so, can anyone prove that its a camel?
[3] If no, then its an ISIS member.".

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

Response by LCpl Mark Lefler made Jun 3 at 2015 9:05 PM

2015-06-03T21:05:52-04:00

I'm very sure this number is inflated intentionally or not.

Response by SSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Jun 3 at 2015 9:10 PM

2015-06-03T21:10:31-04:00

I laughed.

Response by PO1 William "Chip" Nagel made Jun 3 at 2015 9:14 PM

2015-06-03T21:14:38-04:00

Any time I see supposedly leaked intelligence estimates I am always leery, considering what could happen if you released real classified material, Hmmmm, Could this be OPDEC Operational Deception and or Propaganda. Also being a retired spook I would want to know what this estimate is based on.

Response by SSG Private RallyPoint Member made Jun 3 at 2015 9:43 PM

2015-06-03T21:43:41-04:00

"Eastasia is our enemy. Eastasia has always been our enemy. Eurasia is our ally. Eurasia has always been our ally..."

Response by Lt Col Private RallyPoint Member made Jun 9 at 2015 7:10 AM

2015-06-09T07:10:22-04:00

My thought is that we aren't likely to get very far killing ISIL's fielded forces a piece at a time, while refusing to target ISIL stronghold and C2 nodes like Al Raqqah.