The new cold war: Putin's forces target U.S. Navy and allies

Navy Times — Wed, 03 Dec 2014 10:43:48 -0500

From: Navy Times

On Feb. 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin watched the 2014 Winter Olympics, one of his signature achievements, come to a close from the stands of the Fisht Olympic Stadium in Sochi in an epic display of Russian culture.

Musicians, ballet dancers and athletes paid homage to the rich history of Russian arts and technological accomplishments. A massive children's choir sang the Russian national anthem and Russian dancers celebrated everything from the achievements of Yuri Gagarin, the first man in space, to the writings of Dostoevsky, Pushkin and Tolstoy.

"This is the new face of Russia," said Dmitry Chernyshenko, the Sochi Games' lead organizer.

As fireworks lit the sky over the Black Sea to the strains of Tchaikovsky, the world had no idea that it would indeed soon see the new face of Russia, and the new face would look a lot like the face of 25 years ago.

Since the fall of the pro-Russian government of Ukraine, as the Winter Games were ending, Putin's Russia has annexed the Crimea region by force, secured a vital warm-weather port in the Black Sea and sponsored a civil war in Eastern Ukraine that has claimed the lives of thousands — all within a few hundred miles of NATO's borders.

Russia's military has taken on an aggressive swagger. Highly provocative run-ins are now common with neighbors and NATO nations alike. In the Black Sea, NATO ships like the U.S. destroyer Donald Cook have been buzzed by Russian fighters. Russian Tu-95 Bear bombers have reportedly been tracked near Canada conducting missile strike drills within range of targets in the United States, and Russian airplanes have been tracked as close as 50 miles from the California coast – the closest they've come since the end of the Cold War.

The Russian aggression has forced the Pentagon and NATO to reconsider their strategies. Senior military leaders including NATO's top military officer, Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, are calling for a halt to the U.S. withdrawal from Europe. The U.S. Navy has dispatched ships on presence missions to the Baltic and Black Seas, with a growing awareness that atrophied skills like sub-hunting in cooperation with allies will be needed in the years ahead. And the U.S. Army dispatched 600 troops on a 90-day mission to train Eastern European allies on M-1 Abrams tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.

"Who would have thought on Jan. 1, 2014, we'd have an annexed Crimea, a civil war fostered, fueled and nurtured in Eastern Ukraine, and a very different relationship with a Russia that for the last 20 years has been seen as an economic partner?" said Royal Navy Vice Adm. Peter Hudson, head of the NATO maritime mission in an October interview.

The tensions have turned 6th Fleet into an operational theater, not just the R&R destination it has been for most of the past decade as ships pass through to 5th Fleet. Facing down the Russians, a sophisticated and experienced former adversary, is suddenly a very real mission for more of the fleet, putting the Naples, Italy-based 6th Fleet at the center of the world's attention in this budding Cold War. Some defense experts believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future, with no sign that Putin's forces will de-escalate as the Russian leader basks in the wave of nationalism stoked by these confrontations.

On Nov. 20, Reuters reported that NATO air assets have scrambled about 400 times this year to intercept Russian fighters and bombers that have routinely operated without turning on their transponders, creating potentially disastrous hazards for civilian air traffic.

Russia has also taken to bullying smaller countries on its borders such as Finland, Moldova, Estonia and others,

Defense experts warn that Putin's forces are on a collision course with NATO that pits the U.S. and its allies against a sophisticated, even "mischievous," foe set on resurrecting the Cold War playbook, according to one leader.

'Highly Disturbing'

Russia's aggressive provocations have multiplied over the past year, according to experts. In November, the European Leadership Network think tank released a paper calling the increase in such incidents as "highly disturbing."

The group pointed to about 45 documented confrontations between Russian military forces and NATO, as well as Finland and Sweden, and argued that the risks of sparking a crisis are growing with each incident.

"It is a pattern which we have not seen for many years and it is a pattern that reminds us of the way they conducted these kind of military air activities back in the time of the Cold War," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in November.

The incidents "add up to a highly disturbing picture of violations of national airspace, emergency scrambles, narrowly avoided midair collisions, close encounters at sea, simulated attack runs, and other dangerous actions happening on a regular basis over a very wide geographical area," according to the report.

"The increased number and gravity of incidents described also points to a disturbing dynamic," it continued. "The Russian armed forces and security agencies seem to have been authorized and encouraged to act in a much more aggressive way toward NATO countries, Sweden and Finland."

And that has translated into more high-stakes encounters for U.S. forces in international airspace and on the high seas. In April, just after the annexation of Crimea, the destroyer Donald Cook was buzzed by a Russian SU-24 Fencer with 12 low passes in the Black Sea.

In April, an armed Russian SU-27 Flanker fighter came within 100 feet of an Air Force RC-135U surveillance aircraft over the Sea of Okhotsk off the Russian coast. The event prompted high-level talks between the military leaders on both sides to prevent such an event from happening again.

But in July, media reports emerged that a second RC-135 had been chased by Russian interceptors into Swedish airspace during a surveillance mission in the Baltic.

Hudson, the Royal Navy admiral, said these incidents on the high seas have become almost routine for NATO sailors, including those with the U.S. Navy.

"On the back of Ukraine they are more assertive in their behavior," Hudson said. "We've seen the instances in the Black Sea flying aircraft at NATO ships; their surface ships have [been] interfering with NATO operations in the Baltic Sea, shadowing and intelligence collection. We've seen a more assertive posture over the past 12 months, behavior we haven't seen for 25 to 30 years [since] the Cold War."

Hudson said Russian ships have even resorted to unprofessional tactics that can been seen as petty or just down-right aggravating.

"In the Baltic and the Black Sea, we see a couple of Russian small warships fouling gunnery ranges," he said. "You know you have to announce on the radio that you're conducting gunnery exercises to make sure fishermen and yachts are safe, so they deliberately park themselves in the box to foul gunnery ranges. They've gotten inside safety when we've conducted diving operations, etc.

"These sorts of things are irritating, mischievous. They are nuisance factors [and] they are overly aggressive in some respects. And this is the renewed Russian way of asserting its authority."

'Up our game'

The renewed tensions with Russia and more confrontations with Russian forces on the high seas have already forced the Navy to ramp up its presence in Europe.

Since the crisis erupted, the destroyers Donald Cook, Truxtun and Ross, the cruiser Vella Gulf and the frigate Taylor have all made high-profile appearances in the Black Sea. Vella Gulf, in particular, transited the Turkish Straits to the Black Sea at least three times on missions to reassure allies — including Bulgaria and Romania — that the U.S. is committed to the region and collective defense.

New ports have opened up to sailors deploying to 6th Fleet as well, including Varna, Bulgaria; Constanta, Romania; and Batumi, Georgia, which have all hosted U.S. ships since the Ukraine crisis began.

There is serious work with alllies in Europe to rebuild high-level capabilities that may have eroded during the past two decades, said Thomas Fedyszyn, a Russia expert at the Naval War College who commanded a U.S. cruiser during the Cold War.

"For about 20 years we've had forces with NATO, but we don't do high-level warfare like [anti-submarine warfare, anti-air warfare]," Fedyszyn said. "Now we fight piracy and immigration and counter criminality."

Fedyszyn said that sailors should be ready for more face-to-face encounters with a sophisticated adversary.

"Sailors deploying can increasingly expect meeting up with Russian ships," he said in an October phone interview. "Do expect those cold war confrontations, and be ready for them. Also expect to be training for higher level operations. You might be doing some serious AAW or ASW. When your helo lifts off, it won't be looking for pirates or drugs -- it may be looking for other warships."

That's in line with the urgent ramp up for which Hudson has been calling. When Hudson flew to Washington, D.C., in October, he visited the Pentagon to speak with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jon Greenert about new exercises and commitments to NATO training and commitments in Europe.

Hudson told reporters that it is important to get back in the habit of fighting together if NATO wants to show Russia it is serious.

"It used to come naturally 25 years ago," Hudson said during a Pentagon round-table with reporters. "We used to do big, complex NATO exercises in all environments, but the world has changed. We haven't been doing as many of those in the last 10, 15 years. But I think Ukraine has told us we need to up our game and I think that's the plan in the near future."

Hudson said the first major exercise, Trident Juncture, is scheduled to begin next year and will involve nearly 25,000 NATO troops.

'The new normal is bad'

Military leaders and defense experts are cautioning that renewed Russian aggression isn't going anywhere as the U.S. military tries to recalibrate its presence. They expect the tensions will make 6th Fleet missions to track Russian forces as common as, say, counter-drug deployments have been for Mayport, Florida, ships or oil platform defense missions once were for U.S. ships in the Persian Gulf.

The U.S. needs to steel itself for a long period of tensions and confrontation with Russia, said retired Adm. James Stavridis, the former NATO supreme allied commander Europe and current dean of The Fletcher School at Tufts University in Massachusetts.

"I think we are in a new normal, and the new normal is bad," Stavridis said in a Nov. 25 interview. "The new normal is not quite the cold war ... we're not quite there. But the new normal will be an aggressive, revanchist Russia that seeks to reconstruct a Warsaw Pact-lite around its borders. … I think it is probably the most significant strategic shift that is underway in the world today."

The U.S. is facing down Putin's navy at sea while ratcheting up pressure on its leaders through targeted sanctions. It remains to be seen whether those strategies will work. For now, Putin's dangerous game is tailor-made to bolster his own popularity with Russians, said Fedyszyn, the NWC expert.

"This is not the left side of [Putin's] brain in operation, don't confuse this with logic," Fedyszyn said. "This is national pride, making Russians feel good about how powerful they are. Russia has been feeling dissed for a long time. Now, having spent a little money on defense, they are showing how tough they are. It's part of Putin's calculus, but it's not exactly smart."

Stavridis agreed, saying that ultimately Putin is hurting his country by damaging its economic ties with Western Europe and the United States.

"What I think you are seeing is a Putin who is tactically very successful: by undertaking an annexation of Crimea; a destabilization of Ukraine; a destabilization of Moldova; by sending ships into the Caribbean; sending out long-range bombers. Where is he successful? He's successful in Russia. That's the audience for those activities. He is banging the drum of Russian nationalism louder than we've seen it in 50 years.

"Those tactics help him immeasurably at home to maintain control and to feed the fires of Russian nationalism. He's going to be tactically successful in those regards. He's going to be a strategic failure."

http://www.navytimes.com/story/military/2014/12/02/russians-bully-europe-putin-navy-nato-breedlove-hudson/70121746/

Response by PO1 Walter Duncan made Dec 3 at 2014 1:10 PM

PO1 Walter Duncan — Wed, 03 Dec 2014 13:10:59 -0500

Really, the world had no idea? I know this old dog here stuck in Nowhereville, USA saw it coming for several years. Putin President (2 terms) then out, but he is then the what (Shadow President) 2 more terms, then look he's back President again, and the whole time this guy has been pushing one agenda. If you do not agree with it, the wealthy mysteriously die, disappear or go to prison for crazy things. This man only knows one way and that is the old Soviet , KGB way and right now he looks at our President and probably just takes his shirt off like Matthew McConaughey and say" Alright, Alright, Alright " . That is how relaxed he is about this President because he is no threat. So far he still has with no regard to the world take Crimea and is still knowing forcing his way into Ukraine and the world stands by and our President is so happy about Ferguson, because he can be distracted from overseas topics and hopefully people will not notice. Because the news will not talk about nothing else because the administration is pushing the topic to divert attention. It is just like bringing out thing on Friday afternoon so they do not have to talk about them for the an entire weekend. Seems childish, but it is actually a strategy used. Wow!

Response by CPT Jack Durish made Dec 3 at 2014 1:51 PM

CPT Jack Durish — Wed, 03 Dec 2014 13:51:43 -0500

At the heart of the Soviet Union during the Cold War was Russia, a third world nation with a first world nation military force. It could not have succeeded as well as it did except that the Western World allowed it until it couldn't stop it.

During the heart of the Cold War, the West attempted "containment" (The Truman Doctrine) and "Detente" (The Kennedy/Kissinger Doctrine), both founded in the fear of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). Fundamentally, the West pretended the conflict was "Cold" while the Soviet Union engaged in "Hot" war putting the west on defense in Europe, Asia, and the Caribbean, until President Reagan upset the apple cart and began addressing the problem aggressively. Only when confronted with Reagan's belligerence, the Soviet Union unraveled and the Cold War ended.

With the end of the Cold War, it seemed to me that the US military was failing to adapt to the new realities of the geopolitical situation. They seemed to be arming and training to fight some high-tech version of WWII while they should have been focusing more on small, rapid response teams to fight terrorists. The battle to drive Sadaam from Kuwait seemed to be the last hurrah of heavy armor racing across the dessert. Then came the Obama Administration.

Putin now propagandizes that the world is in danger of a new Cold War because of the actions of the United States, and he is correct. President Obama's doctrine of appeasement has encouraged Putin to attempt to reassemble the Soviet Union. Without the Soviet Union, there is no Cold War. With it, we're right back where we started.

Now, the US military has a new problem. They are being scaled back to a force barely sufficient to contend with terrorists while a once dormant world power is rising from the ashes. Even worse, the American economy is in shambles (regardless of the rosy reports coming out of Washington) and not sufficient to finance a major rebuilding of the military.

Hang on folks, it's gonna be a wild ride...

Response by SSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Dec 3 at 2014 3:19 PM

SSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 03 Dec 2014 15:19:06 -0500

I got out during the mid 80s and I never expected the USSR to fall as it did but what I always felt that this is too good to be true. And now with Putin's actions speaking louder than words it would behoove our President and the Pentagon to realize, stop the cutbacks and get real. Our whole nation and what every combatant and non-combatant has done appears to be in jeopardy.

What we are doing now and how we are perceived by the bad guys is that we are not serious. The stakes are too high to be putting a priority on silly trifling crap like who can use what bathroom. And the marginalizing of our Missileers could have been a fatal mistake. The least notion that the Russians get as to our vulnerability is like lighting some kind of fuse. The civilians who decry war and neglect to arm themselves are shown to be misled every time.

Thinking we have this and will continue to is a dangerous policy. The policies remind me of trying to put a tight spiral on a volleyball. That would never work of course, so sticking our heads in the sand and playing with policy is extremely foolish, because the enemy waits in the tall grass.

Response by SFC Mark Merino made Dec 3 at 2014 3:39 PM

SFC Mark Merino — Wed, 03 Dec 2014 15:39:47 -0500

Great read, Navy Times. Once again, we disregard past acts and doctrines and expect the school house bully to behave with just a time out. Russia has always operated from a position of strength and dared the world to stand up to them. NATO lets the US do the grunt work for decades and now needs help standing up to the big bad wolf........bear.

Response by Cpl Dennis F. made Dec 3 at 2014 4:00 PM

Cpl Dennis F. — Wed, 03 Dec 2014 16:00:01 -0500

Interesting read. Thanks for posting.
I grew up through the height of USSR provocation in S.Florida, during the Cuban crisis.
I recall Nike-Zeus missiles on the beaches and troop convoys on the interstate.
High tension.
Then Kruchev blinked.

Response by CPO Greg Frazho made Dec 3 at 2014 4:45 PM

CPO Greg Frazho — Wed, 03 Dec 2014 16:45:35 -0500

A lot to take in with that story and all of it relevant. I'm not certain I agree that Putin's belligerence of late is necessarily going to be a strategic failure. He seems to be pretty successful right now and while the big, bad United States is detained by quasi-wars and low intensity conflicts from the Horn of Africa to the borders of Asia Minor to Afghanistan, amidst a much-ballyhooed pivot to Southeast Asia, what's the world, specifically NATO, to do? Is it possible Uncle Vlad's bitten off more than he and his nation can chew? Certainly. Is it a sure thing? Not by any stretch of the imagination. As the saying goes, confidence is high.

NATO has become essentially a paper tiger since the Bosnian conflict, and it's being demonstrated as we speak. Very candidly, without the U.S. in it, NATO's charter isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Think you can get almost 30 nations to agree on a course of action? Not very likely, unless the issue, of course, is its own hegemony or its very existence. The former Soviet Union seems to be in a good position to challenge that right now. In an absence of a regional power, which we don't have in eastern Europe currently, who's going to fill the vacuum? Putin and company are itching to, that's for certain.

So who's gonna slap the Russian bear down a la 1980s rhetoric? Obama and his inner circle? Highly doubtful. Their ineptitude regarding diplomacy and international relations has made us a much-less feared entity if not a pushover of late. The administration's relationship with DoD, never warm, has degenerated into almost open warfare, Chuck Hagel being its most recent casualty. And EUCOM now wants to put the breaks on its reduction of forces in Europe at the same time DoD faces massive budget cuts, severe force-shaping levels, sequestration and a host of other problems.

Mr. Secretary, and that means Mr. Hagel for the rest of his tenure and Mr. Carter when he gets confirmed, and I believe he will be, you've got your work cut out for you, not least which because you'll be the lynchpin between this administration and its successor. The latter will have numerous challenges on its hands which you will be the corporate knowledge and the continuity that will be needed to make our footprint relevant once again in Europe. Doing all of that with less money, less manpower and more uncertainty in a deeply divided nation will make this task extraordinarily difficult.

But I'll say this now: if we leave Europe to its own devices, we'll regret it. I don't know that we're on the cusp of another major conflagration in the Old World, but it looks like it could head that way. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. We should've seen this coming years ago.

Response by PO2 Larry Eslinger made Dec 3 at 2014 5:33 PM

PO2 Larry Eslinger — Wed, 03 Dec 2014 17:33:50 -0500

They can shut down our systems, which leave us vulnerable beyond imagination. The military industrial complex is just out to make money. Promote wars without ending. The Russians and Chinese have been saving their resources developing counter measures against our systems. We spend 5 times any other nation on our military, yet they disabled one of our ships with one plane, and never fired a shot. Something to think about when poking a bear. http://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/11/13/aegis-fail-in-black-sea-ruskies-burn-down-uss-donald-duck/

AEGIS Fail in Black SEA, Ruskies Burn Down USS Donald "Duck"

We are told the story is a month old. If any of this is true, then this is a huge issue, not just the lack of follow up but the lack of follow up itself.