Requiem for Strategic Deterrence – Is war with China Inevitable?

2022-11-28T10:51:00-05:00

Image: Fiona Hill, arrives to testify before the House Intelligence Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC.

Election Night 2022 did not fail to disappoint as the fluidity of our domestic politics were on full display.

The pre-mortems during the home stretch of the 2022 mid-term elections projected significant losses for the Democrats, including potentially losing control of both chambers of Congress. Yet, Democrats had a much better night than anyone expected with critical wins in Senate races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and New Hampshire and key governor races such as Katie Hobbs’ victory over Kari Lake in Arizona. Republicans, for their part, realized crucial victories in both Ohio with the election of JD Vance to the US Senate and Florida with Ron DeSantis’ the 20-point gubernatorial victory – notable given future importance of Ohio and Florida in the 2024 presidential race.

While the 2022 mid-term elections may have served as a domestic political test for the viability of Democrats’ and Republicans’ future electoral prospects and domestic political messages, an equally important political test looms on the horizon, which may well come before the next election cycle in 2024.

That political test is whether the on-going competition with China will evolve into a war. Such a conflict would not only test our political leaders but also the future of the international order – as former National Security council official, Matt Pottinger, recently stated: “A war [with China] would fundamentally change the character and complexion of global power.”

To better understand the potentiality of war with China, we must begin by investigating the paradigm within which leaders in the United States and China are making moves and shaping the strategic environment.

Dexter Filkins recently reported in the New Yorker that China is now subsuming fleets of civilian ferries and other civil watercraft into its military command structure. These civilian crafts, thought to be in the thousands, join a Chinese Navy described in a November 2022 Congressional Research Service (CRS) report as the largest navy in the world.

In fact, the November CRS report estimated the Chinese navy included more than 355 naval platforms – from surface combatant ships, to submarines, to aircraft carriers, to amphibious ships. The same CRS report projected that China’s navy would grow to “420 ships in by 2025 and 460 ships by 2030.” For comparison, the US Navy currently has 294 ships. CRS projects the US Navy “battle force” may only have 290 ships by Fiscal year 2030.

China’s enlargement of its navy comes as its army continues to conduct exercises, organize staging areas, and practice amphibious landings just across the Taiwan Strait. These steps by China’s military become particularly concerning when one considers the strategic context within which these Chinese military exercises and activities are occurring.

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken recently noted a strategic shift by Chinese Communist Party leadership: “China had made ‘a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline.’” While Chinese Communist Party leadership may have made this strategic shift, actually effecting “reunification” is a much different and larger task.

Xi, the President of China and leader of the Chinese Communist Party, finds himself in a strategic dilemma. An invasion of Taiwan would, without question, levy significant costs on China. But Xi cannot back down given his view that the status quo with respect to Taiwan is no longer tenable.

Given this strategic dilemma, China may well be attempting to find alternative pathways to changing the status quo vis-à-vis Taiwan. That is why we are seeing China test the United States and Western allies through unprofessional engagements against our military aircraft and forcing our naval vessels to change course.

Chinese Communist Party leadership is trying to find ways to upturn the status quo – either through effectuating a casus belli or exploiting any weaknesses they discern in our resolve. China will likely also employ intelligence and information operational means to change the status quo with Taiwan.

This is why this moment so dangerous.

This also suggests the United States is stuck in a strategic dilemma with respect to Taiwan. Just as China cannot live with the status quo, the United States cannot live with the China’s version of the future for Taiwan.

Moreover, if the United States appears overly distracted by domestic political issues (as discussed at the outset of this piece), if the United States lacks the resolve to support Taiwan’s ability to defend itself, if the United States or its allies are provoked by China’s actions and escalate; these may provide openings for Xi to act against Taiwan.

What’s more, China has likely assessed the United States will is bounded in how far it will go with sanctions. Chinese Communist Party leadership is also likely noting the calls to pull back on US military aid to Ukraine, suggesting a lack of resolve by the United States to provide military support in the context of a prolonged conflict.

This suggests we are not operating within a paradigm of strategic deterrence with China. Rather, it would appear we are operating within a paradigm of strategic escalation. Operating in this paradigm means war not only could happen – rather, there is an increasing probability it will happen. Pottinger goes on to outline the costs in any future conflict:

“Once engaged, a fight would be difficult to control. If leaders on either side began to believe that they were losing, they could feel pressure to escalate; China might attack Americans overseas, and the United States might intensify attacks on the Chinese mainland. Countries throughout the region, and perhaps the world, would be forced to decide whether and how to join the fight.”

The most dangerous future is one in which Xi mis-reads the strategic environment and makes a bold move against Taiwan. In this scenario, Pottinger explains:

“An open confrontation would have enormous implications…If China loses, it could lead to the collapse of the Party and the end of Xi. If Taiwan falls, we are in a different world, where the tide of authoritarianism becomes a flood.”

Therefore, the strategic question for the United States remains: Is war inevitable? If it is, we must change our posture by vigorously and actively preparing for war, providing robust security assistance to Taiwan, and acting to shape the way in which any version of war would unfold. But, in doing so, it risks making war unavoidable. That’s when you know strategic deterrence is dead.

Indeed, former National Security Council official, Fiona Hill, argues we are already engaged in World War III with Russia.

Perhaps we already are with China as well.

Alex Gallo is the author of “Vetspective,” a RallyPoint series that discusses national security, foreign policy, politics, and society. Alex also is a fellow with George Mason University’s National Security Institute, an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, and a US Army Veteran. Follow him on Twitter at @AlexGalloCMP.

Response by MSG Stan Hutchison made Nov 28 at 2022 11:02 AM

2022-11-28T11:02:25-05:00

An interesting article. The prospects of war with China are frightening. To find a solution without war seems almost impossible.
Are the American people ready to make the necessary sacrifices? I am not so sure.

Response by SPC Kevin Ford made Nov 28 at 2022 11:05 AM

2022-11-28T11:05:17-05:00

The comparison of the Chinese and US Navy is difficult. They have vastly different capabilities, particularly when it comes to the ability to project power. For that, a blue water navy is needed and China has very little capability there and the US heavily focuses on it.

Even more importantly, China and the US have heavily intertwined economies and China has been very good at getting what they want without resorting to military force. The use of military force is extremely risky. As China is looking at what is happening to Russia in Ukraine they likely are even less willing to resort to military force; particularly when the slow and steady non military efforts have been achieving their goals.

We do love our boogeymen but for the next decade at least, I suspect a major hot conflict between the US and China is unlikely.

Response by 1LT William Clardy made Nov 28 at 2022 11:16 AM

2022-11-28T11:16:44-05:00

A shooting war with the PRC is no more inevitable now than war with the Soviet Union was inevitable in 1983 (when a lot of World War 3 novels were being written).
Assuming that Chinese strategic thinking mirrors our own is a long-standing, albeit foolish, U.S. conceit which makes misinterpreting Chinese moves and intents dangerously more likely.
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Response by CPT Private RallyPoint Member made Nov 28 at 2022 1:52 PM

2022-11-28T13:52:24-05:00

I have always thought that when a country is tittering on the point of collapse before it points guns INWARD they point guns OUTWARD.

I think there are things going on in China not fully visible to us. Covid is showing it's strains with open protests in the streets. Let's not forget Hong Kong, but that never was hunky dory. World industry is revaluating their dependence on China and actually mobilizing operations outside of China.

I think a year ago China was ALL IN and behind Russia's ambitions with Ukraine, then as time progressed it didn't pan out for Russia in their competence, and additionally the world support against Russia was completely lopsided and effective.

I was thinking China was waiting for the USA to get involved with Eastern Europe hoping it would complicate interreference with Taiwan. I hope they are reevaluating their own internal concerns and the possibility they too are overestimating their military capability when using a conscription army against a volunteer force fighting for its life.

I hope/think there is a part of China that is still bureaucratic enough that internal political fiefdoms can raise legitimate concerns of possible failures and have interests in keeping what they have. Russia is filled with incompetent YES MEN just trying to make it to tomorrow beholden to the whims of a single dictator.

Anyway................ it humors me that our whinny little Millennial Generation might soon find themselves being called the GREATEST GENERATION in 50 years.

Response by SFC Casey O'Mally made Nov 28 at 2022 3:23 PM

2022-11-28T15:23:17-05:00

Even considering homefield advantage, assuming a hot war with China will be fought in Asia and Asian waters, the US still has the advantage. Taking nuclear weapons off the table, in which case the whole world loses (but the US and China even more than others) and NO ONE wins, our military tech carries the day.

With this in mind, I honestly believe China wants a war with us even less than we want a war with them. But......

Xi would never admit this. Ever. So while they want a war less, we are much more vocal about not wanting war. And appearances are important. Our commitment to avoiding war - and a very PUBLIC commitment, at that - gives Xi a whole HELL of a lot of room to misbehave. And he is using it, to great effect.

Response by A1C Private RallyPoint Member made Nov 29 at 2022 5:46 AM

2022-11-29T05:46:03-05:00

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Response by SGM Mikel Dawson made Nov 29 at 2022 9:28 AM

2022-11-29T09:28:20-05:00

I'm no China specialists, just what I see, read and feel.
I think if China is going to make a move on Taiwan, it will be within the next year or so, which will not be so good for us. One thing, the supply lines are long and Taiwan is at China's back door. We would be hard pressed to stop an invasion, and if we tried, it would be a costly affair like the invasion of Japan was predicted during WWII. No way do we have the fleet or assets we did then, both sea and land. With all the material and money we have put into Ukraine, where do we stand on resupply, could we in all reality supply two fronts - might be a tough nut to crack. Yes Japan, Australia and some of the other Pacific Asian countries might join in, but will they? Good question - they might not want to get into something like this.
Also then how would this effect the other side of the world, Ukraine/Russia. If China made the move on Taiwan, I think this would lead to WWIII and countries will have to choose sides. If this happens, I see EMPs being put into play. If I was Putin, I would as many of the weapon system being employed against him would be put out of commission. I have been out since 2006, so I really don't know if the systems are shielded against EMPs. If not weapons systems, communications would take the biggest hit.
China, as Putin has, have been looking at our leadership. With the screwed up pull out from Afghanistan, and the "great effect" of sanctions on Russia, Xi probably figures it is "now or never" to do it. If he does it, he will make a move before the 24 elections to take advantage of the hap-hazard leadership we got now.
If we get into a shooting war, I dread the thought of it, as I am afraid it would lead to nukes. Xi is not going to lose face, he has staked too much on it. He figures it will be a blitzkrig - over power Taiwan in 24hrs. With his navel, air power covering a lighting fast invasion force, Xi thinks it would be almost over before our leader got out of bed.
But hey, I am now shoeing horses, going to retire as of 1st of January, so what do I know.

Response by CSM Darieus ZaGara made Nov 29 at 2022 4:47 PM

2022-11-29T16:47:23-05:00

I certainly hope not.

Response by GySgt Charles O'Connell made Nov 30 at 2022 3:08 PM

2022-11-30T15:08:15-05:00

China has been making moves to further its dominance in the pacific rim for years, their desire to bring Taiwan back into the fold again has been a want for years.

Had Russia done better in its invasion of Ukraine, drawing NATO into the conflict, I think they, China, would have pressed their move on Taiwan. The current state of the global economy comes into play as a factor as well.

Will the U.S., and its regional allies, go to war with China over Taiwan???? As we have pledged our support we will have to, or else loose tremendous face on the world scene. But what will that support entail? Training, logistical/material support, possibly a blockade, come to the forefront of my thinking.
Much will depend on who is sitting in the hot seat at the time.

If nothing else, the Middle Kingdom is patient.

Response by MAJ Ken Landgren made Dec 1 at 2022 4:31 PM

2022-12-01T16:31:47-05:00

Thank you for the essay.

We are not conducting WWIII with China. War is the application of military force in warfare. He has made predictions on assumptions. Some assumptions will come true and some will not. It's difficult to predict the occurrence of wars. Who predicted we would fight Iraq twice, invade Afghanistan, and conduct a proxy war with Ukraine?

If the Chinese military and government are rational, then they will understand that the US military has a decent show of force already in place in the Pacific Region. If war breaks out the US will create bases in new countries. The US Air Force has a significant advantage in numbers of planes, and I highly doubt China can defend her country properly from our planes.

We could have used the DIME paradigm for this essay. Also mention the Belt and Road initiative.

Response by SSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Dec 1 at 2022 7:28 PM

2022-12-01T19:28:58-05:00

I worked at the Command Post whilst at Ramstein as a Meteorologist and pilots talked about being harassed by MIGS. I am very nervous since the wall was broken down. The F-4, C5, and F-16 were still uneasy.

Response by MAJ Byron Oyler made Dec 1 at 2022 10:58 PM

2022-12-01T22:58:14-05:00

No chance of war with China as we and the west are their bank. Fighting with your main source of income is suicide and the Chinese have a history of love of money and no desire to colonize.

Response by SPC David S. made Dec 9 at 2022 4:42 PM

2022-12-09T16:42:53-05:00

I feel its always in our best interests to assume a war with China along with Russia, Iran, Syria and North Korea as a possibility. In part of that who is going to be on our side?

Things like how we left Iraq, A'Stan, Libya, Syria and even Vietnam come to mind. How much of Europe and the world for that matter is going to trust us in leading another global conflict and how much of the world is willing to say good-bye and good riddance to the US's hegemony.

I just feel we find ourselves flat footed when it comes time to rally our allies.

Response by Amn Dale Preisach made Dec 9 at 2022 7:51 PM

2022-12-09T19:51:43-05:00

There are just too many new big toys for big boys to not have even a scaled conflict to see what they can do against each-other. It’s just too tempting. As we have no hypersonic missiles, we are at a disadvantage. The F35 is laughable. The F22 is the plane to produce in number. The f35 is just an overly abundantly expensive spotter plane. And is tepidly situated for even that role.

Response by MAJ Ken Landgren made Dec 10 at 2022 7:31 PM

2022-12-10T19:31:14-05:00

Should have mentioned DIME and Road and Belt Iniative.

Response by Amn Dale Preisach made Dec 12 at 2022 7:19 PM

2022-12-12T19:19:04-05:00

They just have to call in their markers and bonds to be paid immediately…. Then, we’re screwed.
Forfeiture is the newWarfare.

Response by MAJ Ken Landgren made Jan 24 at 2023 2:49 PM

2023-01-24T14:49:17-05:00

China does not have to go to war to achieve imperial designs. It can use economics and diplomacy through the belt and road initiative. Through the initiative China is giving out large loans to developing countries to create infrastructure. However, these projects do not necessarily and often do not increase the country's GDP. The implication is some of the countries cannot pay off the debt. The contracts stipulate upon default China will gain ownership of a country's asset(s).

China is also working with developing countries to mine resources with the agreement of the governments. China is also buying hundred-year leases of ports around the world to include buying companies around the world. The US instruments of national power are Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economics (DIME). Strategic studies in regard to US-China adversarial relationship must incorporate DIME as a strategic paradigm.

Response by SPC John Lind made Feb 12 at 2023 1:02 AM

2023-02-12T01:02:40-05:00

I do believe that war with the PRC is inevitable. They are in a very strong position and they know it. China has become a dominant economic super power, taking strategically important manufacturing jobs and goods away from the free world, massive and innovative build up of military technologies, and espionage (industrial, corporate and state) at a scale never seen before.
The PRC has invaded our shores with viruses, police stations and balloons. They take no responsibility and place all blame on the west. And of course they don't fail to notice that the rest of the world will not call them out on their B.S.
With the world's economy in the balance, and our dependants on Chinese goods, they have placed us behind the eight ball. The sooner US leadership acknowledges this the better chance we have of reversing the situation.
We need to bring home our strategic manufacturing, strengthen our economy, remove their spies and empower our military. And we need to start now.

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 15 at 2023 9:49 PM

2023-02-15T21:49:56-05:00

War with China is highly unlikely, regardless of administration. China's primary relationship with the U.S. is business not political. And their political machine needs their business revenue. Additional, as long as we a a significant food supplier to China, any conflict with us would be disastrous across their population. That they are already in a stalemate war with India further reduces the likelihood. Of course China will rattle their sabber a bit, as much to reassure the political elite as anything.