Posted on Jul 12, 2015
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Sun your not so hot! How much credibility do you put into climate science?
Great article with a video by NASA explaining the sun cycle.
Great article with a video by NASA explaining the sun cycle.
Climate Change
Science
Environment
Planning
Edited >1 y ago
Posted >1 y ago
Responses: 20
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Do solar cycles cause global warming?
A full reading of Tung 2008 finds a distinct 11 year solar signal in the global temperature record. However, this 11 year cycle is superimposed over the long term global warming trend. In fact, the authors go on to estimate climate sensitivity from their findings, calculate a value between 2.3 to 4.1C. This confirms the IPCC estimate of climate sensitivity.
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Capt Seid Waddell
SPC Jan Allbright, M.Sc., R.S., actually, I did post the link. For some reason it did not show up, but I have corrected that. Sorry for the apparent omission of the source. The chart is on P.13 of the paper.
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SSgt (Join to see)
Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball
In Aesop’s story of the boy who cried wolf the consequences included him losing his sheep and his credibility, even if he later told the truth. Today, environmental and climate alarmists who cry wolf don’t lose anything. There is no accountability. In fact, they continue to have credibility, keep their jobs and receive funding as millions of others suffer in a multitude of ways. Failed climate predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) continue as the basis for regulations and policies, that profoundly affect thousands of people’s lives. What is happening confirms H.L. Mencken’s observation,
“The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the greatest liars: the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/12/environmental-and-climatic-alarmism-demand-accountability/
In Aesop’s story of the boy who cried wolf the consequences included him losing his sheep and his credibility, even if he later told the truth. Today, environmental and climate alarmists who cry wolf don’t lose anything. There is no accountability. In fact, they continue to have credibility, keep their jobs and receive funding as millions of others suffer in a multitude of ways. Failed climate predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) continue as the basis for regulations and policies, that profoundly affect thousands of people’s lives. What is happening confirms H.L. Mencken’s observation,
“The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the greatest liars: the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/12/environmental-and-climatic-alarmism-demand-accountability/
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SSgt (Join to see)
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/jul/a8.php
Many biologists have long been concerned about the potential consequences of the historical and still-on-going increase in the atmosphere's CO2 concentration on both the degree of atmospheric warming and the concomitant increase in ocean acidification that these phenomena may cause to occur. And driven by these concerns, Keppel et al. (2015) sought to determine the potentials of these two phenomena to impact the feeding of sea stars (Asterias rubens) -- which they collected from Antigonish Harbour, Nova Scotia, Canada -- on mussels (Mytilus edulis) that they collected from the same location.
Adjusting the degree of ocean water acidification and temperature to values predicted by climate alarmists to likely prevail at the end of the current century, the three researchers found the sea stars to be negatively affected in terms of growth rate, consumption rate and calcified mass by the lower pH, with growth further reduced by the 4°C higher temperatures projected to prevail throughout the summer months of July and August. Mussel growth rates, on the other hand, were positively affected by the lowered pH and showed no response to the higher temperatures within the tested range.
In light of these findings, i.e. that M. edulis may benefit from lower predation pressure due to a combination of lower sea star consumption rate and their own faster attainment of larger size-determined refuge -- with the ultimate result that "ocean acidification and warming may thus lead to altered sea star and mussel populations and associated changes in community structure" -- the work of Keppel et al. suggests that the mussels they studied, as well as those of other locations, may fare far better in a CO2-enriched world of the future than they
Many biologists have long been concerned about the potential consequences of the historical and still-on-going increase in the atmosphere's CO2 concentration on both the degree of atmospheric warming and the concomitant increase in ocean acidification that these phenomena may cause to occur. And driven by these concerns, Keppel et al. (2015) sought to determine the potentials of these two phenomena to impact the feeding of sea stars (Asterias rubens) -- which they collected from Antigonish Harbour, Nova Scotia, Canada -- on mussels (Mytilus edulis) that they collected from the same location.
Adjusting the degree of ocean water acidification and temperature to values predicted by climate alarmists to likely prevail at the end of the current century, the three researchers found the sea stars to be negatively affected in terms of growth rate, consumption rate and calcified mass by the lower pH, with growth further reduced by the 4°C higher temperatures projected to prevail throughout the summer months of July and August. Mussel growth rates, on the other hand, were positively affected by the lowered pH and showed no response to the higher temperatures within the tested range.
In light of these findings, i.e. that M. edulis may benefit from lower predation pressure due to a combination of lower sea star consumption rate and their own faster attainment of larger size-determined refuge -- with the ultimate result that "ocean acidification and warming may thus lead to altered sea star and mussel populations and associated changes in community structure" -- the work of Keppel et al. suggests that the mussels they studied, as well as those of other locations, may fare far better in a CO2-enriched world of the future than they
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One study is not how science works. It's how the MEDIA and a few special interest groups work for sure, but there are single studies claiming all kinds of things. Besides, this was a paper presented at a conference. It's not published or peer reviewed, so who knows if it's anything more than complete garbage?
Oh yeah, and the Daily Fail earned its name for a reason.
Oh yeah, and the Daily Fail earned its name for a reason.
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V. Troueta, , , J.D. Scourseb, , C.C. Raiblec, d,
a Laboratory for Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 105 W Stadium, Tucson AZ, 85721, USA
b School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Anglesey, LL59 5AB, UK
c Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
d Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
Received 2 May 2011, Accepted 6 October 2011, Available online 15 October 2011
Abstract
Within the last Millennium, the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 1000–1300 CE) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1400–1800 CE) has been recorded in a global array of climatic and oceanographic proxies. In this study, we review proxy evidence for two alternative hypotheses for the effects of this shift in the North Atlantic region. One hypothesis postulates that the MCA/LIA transition included a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and a transition to more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions, resulting in a strong cooling of the North Atlantic region. The alternative hypothesis proposes a MCA/LIA shift to an increased number of storms over the North Atlantic linked to increased mid-latitude cyclogenesis and hence a pervasive positive NAO state. The two sets of proxy records and thus of the two competing hypotheses are then reconciled based on available results from climate model simulations of the last Millennium. While an increase in storm frequency implicates positive NAO, increased intensity would be consistent with negative NAO during the LIA. Such an increase in cyclone intensity could have resulted from the steepening of the meridional temperature gradient as the poles cooled more strongly than the Tropics from the MCA into the LIA.
Keywords
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Little Ice Age; Medieval Climate Anomaly; North Atlantic Oscillation; storminess; mid-latitude cyclones; Aeolian sand deposition; Maunder Minimum
(there is such an immediate jump to conclusions here and that does not benefit the science and when plausible exceptions are ignored, we gerrymander into political correctness. Not on my watch).
a Laboratory for Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 105 W Stadium, Tucson AZ, 85721, USA
b School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Anglesey, LL59 5AB, UK
c Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
d Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
Received 2 May 2011, Accepted 6 October 2011, Available online 15 October 2011
Abstract
Within the last Millennium, the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 1000–1300 CE) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1400–1800 CE) has been recorded in a global array of climatic and oceanographic proxies. In this study, we review proxy evidence for two alternative hypotheses for the effects of this shift in the North Atlantic region. One hypothesis postulates that the MCA/LIA transition included a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and a transition to more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions, resulting in a strong cooling of the North Atlantic region. The alternative hypothesis proposes a MCA/LIA shift to an increased number of storms over the North Atlantic linked to increased mid-latitude cyclogenesis and hence a pervasive positive NAO state. The two sets of proxy records and thus of the two competing hypotheses are then reconciled based on available results from climate model simulations of the last Millennium. While an increase in storm frequency implicates positive NAO, increased intensity would be consistent with negative NAO during the LIA. Such an increase in cyclone intensity could have resulted from the steepening of the meridional temperature gradient as the poles cooled more strongly than the Tropics from the MCA into the LIA.
Keywords
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; Little Ice Age; Medieval Climate Anomaly; North Atlantic Oscillation; storminess; mid-latitude cyclones; Aeolian sand deposition; Maunder Minimum
(there is such an immediate jump to conclusions here and that does not benefit the science and when plausible exceptions are ignored, we gerrymander into political correctness. Not on my watch).
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Putting my science hat on, this is on point. We have great solar observations AND great climate records that have been correlated. Now, for the BUT. This is not taking into account global warming. And keep in mind, we are talking difference in single degrees, which for some areas will cause more snow and ice. The eggheads put men on the moon. Sometimes, it's good to listen to them.
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I live in Alaska, and this has been, on average, one of the hottest summers in the last 100 years. Now, does that mean we are in for a Winter with of a couple of weeks of 60 below weather? Probably, and just in case, we are stocking up on heating oil !!
The point of all this is that we have seen glaciers here that have not thawed for many hundreds of years melting away now. The Earth's oceans are higher than ever before and the polar caps are getting smaller.
But don't run off in a panic. It's all happened before, and it will all happen again, even if we aren't around to see it.
The point of all this is that we have seen glaciers here that have not thawed for many hundreds of years melting away now. The Earth's oceans are higher than ever before and the polar caps are getting smaller.
But don't run off in a panic. It's all happened before, and it will all happen again, even if we aren't around to see it.
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PVT Robert Gresham
LTC John Shaw - It all seems pretty random, but I'm sure that, on the cosmic scale, it will even out soon enough.
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LTC John Shaw
PVT Robert Gresham This is why we are investing as a country in understanding the weather cycles and gathering data, both are good things.
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PVT Robert Gresham
LTC John Shaw - I absolutely agree. However, I believe that we just don't live long enough to find the answers about how our "blue marble" in space actually runs. I really hope that in 300 years, or so, we find the real, full, no questions asked, answers to all our questions about climate, our planet and about ourselves.
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LTC John G. Shaw, Living in a CA beach city concerned w/ preventing rising water levels from inundating multi-million dollar homes, I worry how my property tax will be affected. Global warming=rising sea water levels!
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LTC John Shaw
CSM Charles Hayden Yes, if you live in a beach city, I can see why this takes on a whole new level of urgency. I don't want to see our Roller Coast underwater either. Much harder to ride this way. Cedar Point, Sandusky, OH is right on the lake.
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Climate change has been so over simplified that most people understand it incorrectly. Global warming isn't a thing caused by us. We are still coming off of the last ice age, hence it getting warmer. However, our carbon imprint has increased the rate at which it is getting warmer. This is problematic for many reasons, but here is the simplest. We are in a cyclic system. Back and forth between ice ages. Species adjust to the change in climate, but only if the transition is slow enough. By increasing the speed of that cycle we removed the ability for species to adjust. Once we speed up the cycle, we lack a mechanism to slow it back down, so it is permanent.
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SGT Matthew Ellis
I don't see any mention of anything you've published in this section of comments and there are 99+ scattered through this topic. I'm not sifting through all of them in the hopes that I find them. Send them to me or don't, but at this point I see a complete lack of support for your argument, other than "I said so."
In regards to not going along with the concensus of scientists, that is how science works. People do factual research, then make it available for the community, and they decide if the data supports the claim. So don't treat it like a bunch of guesses and opinions. The vast majority of scientists support this idea because of research that has been done. I fail to see how due diligence has not been done.
In regards to not going along with the concensus of scientists, that is how science works. People do factual research, then make it available for the community, and they decide if the data supports the claim. So don't treat it like a bunch of guesses and opinions. The vast majority of scientists support this idea because of research that has been done. I fail to see how due diligence has not been done.
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SSgt (Join to see)
The truth is too painful then I guess you are too lazy. And Meteorologists have a damn bit more experience with climate than neophyte pseudo-scientists.
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SGT Matthew Ellis
Yes I'm lazy because I should have to go doing the work to prove your argument for you. And are you really suggesting that meteorologists are real scientists while chemists and physicists are lesser? When the entiretly of the scientific community, the ones who have actually done research, tells you that global warming on the human end is a problem, statistically you are probably wrong. And again you want to talk about the experience in climate vs the rest of us. Your experience is as a bloody weatherman, predicting patterns from relatively generic data, NOT collecting data and doing long term analysis. That is, if your experience listed on here is accurate. Meanwhile, the very things you're suggesting you know more about are governed entirely by the 2 fields from which I pull my sources on the subject. Once again I would also point on that the pollution issues, not just GW, fall entirely within the realm of chemistry as the problems are the reactions taking place between what should be in the atmosphere and what we're adding.
So for the last time, link me the work that you have published on the subject and I will consider it. Otherwise I assume you've made no publications, will continue to pay attention to people who actually have done the work, and will be done with this conversation.
So for the last time, link me the work that you have published on the subject and I will consider it. Otherwise I assume you've made no publications, will continue to pay attention to people who actually have done the work, and will be done with this conversation.
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I live in a ski resort that used to average 25 feet of snowfall a year. During the last five years we have averaged around 2 feet. I hope this mini-ice age will last for the next 30 years, because after that, I won't care.
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SSgt (Join to see)
I never base my opinions of this based upon temporary trends, hot or cold. The IPCC, Al Gore and the P Mini-Me have been using the word 'denier' was a way of trying to shame alternative views. Sad deal.
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CPT Alan W.
Yeah, there is something to the science and long term trend is warmer. Whether or not human activity is part of the cause, there are still a lot of other good reasons for us to try to live sustainably as a race of animals. The sun is moving into the reduced output part of it's 11 year cycle, we'll see if the regular snow comes back consistently to casa de alan.
In the interim I have moved to a more sustainable life and I'm finding, overall, it's cheaper for me, and healthier.
In the interim I have moved to a more sustainable life and I'm finding, overall, it's cheaper for me, and healthier.
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SSgt (Join to see)
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott, whose recently appointed a commissioner to handle complaints about wind farms, has just instructed the government Clean Energy Corporation not to subsidise any new wind farm projects.
According to the Sydney Morning Herald;
Tony Abbott has dramatically escalated his war on wind power, creating a new cabinet split and provoking a warning he is putting international investment at risk.
Fairfax Media can reveal the government has ordered the $10 billion Clean Energy Finance Corporation not to make any new investments in wind power projects.
Treasurer Joe Hockey and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann have issued the so-called
green bank with a directive to change its investment mandate, prohibiting new wind funding. It’s understood the directive was issued without the approval or knowledge of Environment Minister Greg Hunt, angering the minister.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/12/australian-pm-cancels-subsidies-for-new-windfarm-projects/
According to the Sydney Morning Herald;
Tony Abbott has dramatically escalated his war on wind power, creating a new cabinet split and provoking a warning he is putting international investment at risk.
Fairfax Media can reveal the government has ordered the $10 billion Clean Energy Finance Corporation not to make any new investments in wind power projects.
Treasurer Joe Hockey and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann have issued the so-called
green bank with a directive to change its investment mandate, prohibiting new wind funding. It’s understood the directive was issued without the approval or knowledge of Environment Minister Greg Hunt, angering the minister.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/12/australian-pm-cancels-subsidies-for-new-windfarm-projects/
Australian PM Cancels Subsidies for New Windfarm Projects
Guest essay by Eric Worrall h/t Breitbart - Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott, whose recently appointed a commissioner to handle complaints about wind farms, has just instructed the government ...
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