Posted on Feb 21, 2016
Is the hype over Trump winning S. Carolina overrated?
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Trump won S. Carolina with 32.5% of the vote which means that 67.5% of the vote did not go for him. 67.5% of the vote was distributed between the other 5 candidates. Jeb Bush dropped out. Where would his 7% have gone if he had dropped out before? What would it have looked like if there were only 2 candidates to cast a vote for instead of 6?
Politics
Republicans
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Democrats
Edited 9 y ago
Posted 9 y ago
Responses: 12
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It is also true then that about 78% of the citizens of SC didn't vote for Cruz or Rubio either. I am not sure the 67.5% stat is much to hang your hat on. Trump has now won two primaries. The GOP needs to get Kasich and Carson to hang up the spurs and see what happens. It is not a guarantee all of the votes will go to Rubio or Cruz.
Carson's could mostly go to Trump as he is an outsider. Also don't forget momentum and some will jump on the bandwagon of the already winning Trump. Even with 3 in the race, Trump may still be the guy to beat. He is getting his third of the vote already. Cruz and Rubio would need every vote to go their way the now departed Bush votes are divided up and ultimately the Kasich/Carson votes. Not likely they will get them all.
Carson's could mostly go to Trump as he is an outsider. Also don't forget momentum and some will jump on the bandwagon of the already winning Trump. Even with 3 in the race, Trump may still be the guy to beat. He is getting his third of the vote already. Cruz and Rubio would need every vote to go their way the now departed Bush votes are divided up and ultimately the Kasich/Carson votes. Not likely they will get them all.
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As I have said numerous times. Too many players on the field. Diluted message.
What you describe above is why we have a 2 party system, as opposed to a multi-party system. It's just not beneficial to have more than a "few" players on the field at a time. The more people competing, the more fragmented the vote becomes, and the more dissatisfied the "majority" of the voter base becomes.
What you describe above is why we have a 2 party system, as opposed to a multi-party system. It's just not beneficial to have more than a "few" players on the field at a time. The more people competing, the more fragmented the vote becomes, and the more dissatisfied the "majority" of the voter base becomes.
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Trump isn't picking up enough of the delegates to avoid a brokered convention. That's the important result so far
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SGT (Join to see)
I think with Bush dropping out is going to hurt trump only if that 7-10% Bush was drawing goes solely to Cruz or Rubio.
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Good article and post and all I can say is give it more time - time will tell. We still have a ways to go.
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Yes, I think the hype is overrated. Even though he won by 32.5% over half of the state didn't vote for him so how could he have really won the state.
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CPT (Join to see) - Captain; Unless and until the US moves to an electoral system that REQUIRES a "majority to win" then "plurality" is going to remain important.
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Me and my wife have differing opinions on who should be President. I like Kasich's mainstream republican views, however I am going for Trump, mainly because he is a loudmouth, arrogant, smart, savvy, Leader of an established business. He is not a mainstream run of the mill Republican, but definitely has republican leanings. My wife is rooting for Kasich, because she doesn't like how much of a A-hole Trump is. But that is what I like about him.
Now for your question. Most of Jeb's votes will probably not go to Trump, in my opinion I don't know of what candidate the votes will swing to if only two candidates were left, (trump and any other person). I don't think the majority of the votes of any other dropped out candidate will go to Trump, its mostly Trump vs. all the other candidates combines. If the mainstream GOP (FoxNews) wants to oust Trump the need to choose one candidate to go up against Trump, and try to get the rest of the candidates to swing their voters towards that one candidate. And the sooner the better for the mainstream GOP, and the worse for Trump.
Similar to what the democrats have, they have only two candidates, Martin O'Malley dropped out early on, so now there are only two candidates, meaning that any debate is a simple divide, 50-50. meaning that debates can be more picky about the candidates positions on a particular issue. The GOP has so many options that the divide is not 50-50, it 20-20-20-20-20.
If Trump is planning for the future (which he probably is) he probably predicted that Jeb Bush will drop out after South Carolina, which means that he should have been targeting Jeb's voters and try to win them over to Trump's campaign, so that in the next election, Jeb's voters may more likely swing to Trump. The same goes for the next vote coming up, predict who is going to get last, and who will probably drop out next, and target those voters so they will swing their vote to Trump.
I'm not a political strategist, but I try and follow politics. I think the political strategists are thinking about this...
Now for your question. Most of Jeb's votes will probably not go to Trump, in my opinion I don't know of what candidate the votes will swing to if only two candidates were left, (trump and any other person). I don't think the majority of the votes of any other dropped out candidate will go to Trump, its mostly Trump vs. all the other candidates combines. If the mainstream GOP (FoxNews) wants to oust Trump the need to choose one candidate to go up against Trump, and try to get the rest of the candidates to swing their voters towards that one candidate. And the sooner the better for the mainstream GOP, and the worse for Trump.
Similar to what the democrats have, they have only two candidates, Martin O'Malley dropped out early on, so now there are only two candidates, meaning that any debate is a simple divide, 50-50. meaning that debates can be more picky about the candidates positions on a particular issue. The GOP has so many options that the divide is not 50-50, it 20-20-20-20-20.
If Trump is planning for the future (which he probably is) he probably predicted that Jeb Bush will drop out after South Carolina, which means that he should have been targeting Jeb's voters and try to win them over to Trump's campaign, so that in the next election, Jeb's voters may more likely swing to Trump. The same goes for the next vote coming up, predict who is going to get last, and who will probably drop out next, and target those voters so they will swing their vote to Trump.
I'm not a political strategist, but I try and follow politics. I think the political strategists are thinking about this...
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no .... it is the effect of the revenge votes ... is about momentum ... sigh ..
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