Is the hype over Trump winning S. Carolina overrated?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-optimists-and-trump-skeptics-are-about-to-go-to-war/

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/opinion/is-there-any-stopping-donald-trump.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FTrump%2C%20Donald%20J.&action=click&contentCollection=timestopics&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=9&pgtype=collection&_r=0

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/02/21/after-south-carolina-can-anybody-take-on-trump.html

Look, if Trump wins in Nevada on Tuesday (which polling suggests is really likely), he'll have come in 2nd in Iowa and won New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. These are all really different states with really different electorates. He's expected to win most of the March 1 states, according to current polling. He's expected to win the Republican nomination, according to both polling (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html) and bookies (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/01/21/bookies-go-big-on-donald-trump-and-even-bigger-on-hillary-clinton.html).

With all of this, it doesn't seem like the hype is overrated.

I hear you on the "67.5% of the vote did not go for him" point, but consider these facts using the same logic:

-77.5% of the vote did not go to Rubio
-77.7% of the vote did not go to Cruz
-92.4% of the vote did not go to Kasich
-92.8% of the vote did not go to Carson

I suspect Bush's support would have been split out to Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, and Trump, in that order. However, given the way things are going, by the time the GOP race gets down to just two candidates, the race may be over. Trump is leading in the polls in just about every one of the upcoming states (except for Texas), so it doesn't look good for Cruz or Rubio (who is even well behind Trump in Florida). If Cruz and Rubio stick it out (and given that they both clearly have different voter constituencies, I suspect they will), Trump will benefit. If either drops out, Trump may benefit too.

Rubio has most of the establishment vote (plus the big money), and Cruz has the social conservatives and Tea Party votes (has some big money, and has lots of small donors). Trump has the anti-establishment vote and new GOP voters. If Rubio drops out first, some of his support will probably go to Cruz, but Trump polls really, really well with somewhat conservative and moderate GOP voters. Those aren't the same voters as the hardcore conservatives who are currently supporting Cruz. If Cruz drops out first, I bet most of his support goes to Trump. For some reason, Trump polls well with the social conservatives (he has already been stealing them from Cruz), and he also polls well with the Tea Party voters. A Carson drop helps Cruz and Trump, whereas a Kasich drop helps Rubio and Trump. I'd rather be in Trump's position than Rubio's (the Robot) or Cruz's (the Natural born Canadian). Like him or not, Trump is sitting pretty right now, and it has been fun to watch.