Is the hype over Trump winning S. Carolina overrated?

CPT Private RallyPoint Member — Sun, 21 Feb 2016 20:34:52 -0500

Trump won S. Carolina with 32.5% of the vote which means that 67.5% of the vote did not go for him. 67.5% of the vote was distributed between the other 5 candidates. Jeb Bush dropped out. Where would his 7% have gone if he had dropped out before? What would it have looked like if there were only 2 candidates to cast a vote for instead of 6?

Response by SGT Benjamin Lindsey made Feb 21 at 2016 8:39 PM

SGT Benjamin Lindsey — Sun, 21 Feb 2016 20:39:29 -0500

Yes, I think the hype is overrated. Even though he won by 32.5% over half of the state didn't vote for him so how could he have really won the state.

Response by SP5 Mark Kuzinski made Feb 21 at 2016 8:39 PM

SP5 Mark Kuzinski — Sun, 21 Feb 2016 20:39:35 -0500

Good article and post and all I can say is give it more time - time will tell. We still have a ways to go.

Response by Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS made Feb 21 at 2016 8:40 PM

Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS — Sun, 21 Feb 2016 20:40:52 -0500

As I have said numerous times. Too many players on the field. Diluted message.

What you describe above is why we have a 2 party system, as opposed to a multi-party system. It's just not beneficial to have more than a "few" players on the field at a time. The more people competing, the more fragmented the vote becomes, and the more dissatisfied the "majority" of the voter base becomes.

Response by SGT Roberto Mendoza-Diaz made Feb 21 at 2016 8:45 PM

SGT Roberto Mendoza-Diaz — Sun, 21 Feb 2016 20:45:35 -0500

Vote Trump 2016!!!

Response by CPT Jack Durish made Feb 21 at 2016 9:11 PM

CPT Jack Durish — Sun, 21 Feb 2016 21:11:53 -0500

Trump isn't picking up enough of the delegates to avoid a brokered convention. That's the important result so far

Response by Cpl Jeff N. made Feb 21 at 2016 9:55 PM

Cpl Jeff N. — Sun, 21 Feb 2016 21:55:05 -0500

It is also true then that about 78% of the citizens of SC didn't vote for Cruz or Rubio either. I am not sure the 67.5% stat is much to hang your hat on. Trump has now won two primaries. The GOP needs to get Kasich and Carson to hang up the spurs and see what happens. It is not a guarantee all of the votes will go to Rubio or Cruz.

Carson's could mostly go to Trump as he is an outsider. Also don't forget momentum and some will jump on the bandwagon of the already winning Trump. Even with 3 in the race, Trump may still be the guy to beat. He is getting his third of the vote already. Cruz and Rubio would need every vote to go their way the now departed Bush votes are divided up and ultimately the Kasich/Carson votes. Not likely they will get them all.

Response by LTC Kevin B. made Feb 21 at 2016 10:09 PM

LTC Kevin B. — Sun, 21 Feb 2016 22:09:00 -0500

I hear you on the "67.5% of the vote did not go for him" point, but consider these facts using the same logic:

-77.5% of the vote did not go to Rubio
-77.7% of the vote did not go to Cruz
-92.4% of the vote did not go to Kasich
-92.8% of the vote did not go to Carson

I suspect Bush's support would have been split out to Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, and Trump, in that order. However, given the way things are going, by the time the GOP race gets down to just two candidates, the race may be over. Trump is leading in the polls in just about every one of the upcoming states (except for Texas), so it doesn't look good for Cruz or Rubio (who is even well behind Trump in Florida). If Cruz and Rubio stick it out (and given that they both clearly have different voter constituencies, I suspect they will), Trump will benefit. If either drops out, Trump may benefit too.

Rubio has most of the establishment vote (plus the big money), and Cruz has the social conservatives and Tea Party votes (has some big money, and has lots of small donors). Trump has the anti-establishment vote and new GOP voters. If Rubio drops out first, some of his support will probably go to Cruz, but Trump polls really, really well with somewhat conservative and moderate GOP voters. Those aren't the same voters as the hardcore conservatives who are currently supporting Cruz. If Cruz drops out first, I bet most of his support goes to Trump. For some reason, Trump polls well with the social conservatives (he has already been stealing them from Cruz), and he also polls well with the Tea Party voters. A Carson drop helps Cruz and Trump, whereas a Kasich drop helps Rubio and Trump. I'd rather be in Trump's position than Rubio's (the Robot) or Cruz's (the Natural born Canadian). Like him or not, Trump is sitting pretty right now, and it has been fun to watch.

Response by MAJ Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 22 at 2016 3:43 AM

MAJ Private RallyPoint Member — Mon, 22 Feb 2016 03:43:32 -0500

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-optimists-and-trump-skeptics-are-about-to-go-to-war/

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/opinion/is-there-any-stopping-donald-trump.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FTrump%2C%20Donald%20J.&action=click&contentCollection=timestopics&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=9&pgtype=collection&_r=0

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/02/21/after-south-carolina-can-anybody-take-on-trump.html

Look, if Trump wins in Nevada on Tuesday (which polling suggests is really likely), he'll have come in 2nd in Iowa and won New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. These are all really different states with really different electorates. He's expected to win most of the March 1 states, according to current polling. He's expected to win the Republican nomination, according to both polling (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html) and bookies (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/01/21/bookies-go-big-on-donald-trump-and-even-bigger-on-hillary-clinton.html).

With all of this, it doesn't seem like the hype is overrated.

Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War

If you think the arguments between the Republican candidates have been bad, well, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Pundits, reporters and political analysts are going to really have at it. Two competing…

Response by PO3 Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 22 at 2016 7:29 AM

PO3 Private RallyPoint Member — Mon, 22 Feb 2016 07:29:37 -0500

no .... it is the effect of the revenge votes ... is about momentum ... sigh ..

Response by Capt Walter Miller made Feb 22 at 2016 7:38 AM

Capt Walter Miller — Mon, 22 Feb 2016 07:38:53 -0500

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Feb 22 at 2016 9:30 AM

SFC Private RallyPoint Member — Mon, 22 Feb 2016 09:30:02 -0500

Me and my wife have differing opinions on who should be President. I like Kasich's mainstream republican views, however I am going for Trump, mainly because he is a loudmouth, arrogant, smart, savvy, Leader of an established business. He is not a mainstream run of the mill Republican, but definitely has republican leanings. My wife is rooting for Kasich, because she doesn't like how much of a A-hole Trump is. But that is what I like about him.

Now for your question. Most of Jeb's votes will probably not go to Trump, in my opinion I don't know of what candidate the votes will swing to if only two candidates were left, (trump and any other person). I don't think the majority of the votes of any other dropped out candidate will go to Trump, its mostly Trump vs. all the other candidates combines. If the mainstream GOP (FoxNews) wants to oust Trump the need to choose one candidate to go up against Trump, and try to get the rest of the candidates to swing their voters towards that one candidate. And the sooner the better for the mainstream GOP, and the worse for Trump.

Similar to what the democrats have, they have only two candidates, Martin O'Malley dropped out early on, so now there are only two candidates, meaning that any debate is a simple divide, 50-50. meaning that debates can be more picky about the candidates positions on a particular issue. The GOP has so many options that the divide is not 50-50, it 20-20-20-20-20.

If Trump is planning for the future (which he probably is) he probably predicted that Jeb Bush will drop out after South Carolina, which means that he should have been targeting Jeb's voters and try to win them over to Trump's campaign, so that in the next election, Jeb's voters may more likely swing to Trump. The same goes for the next vote coming up, predict who is going to get last, and who will probably drop out next, and target those voters so they will swing their vote to Trump.

I'm not a political strategist, but I try and follow politics. I think the political strategists are thinking about this...

Response by COL Ted Mc made Feb 22 at 2016 2:15 PM

COL Ted Mc — Mon, 22 Feb 2016 14:15:30 -0500

CPT Private RallyPoint Member - Captain; Unless and until the US moves to an electoral system that REQUIRES a "majority to win" then "plurality" is going to remain important.