Is our country and government prepared for the next serious natural disaster?

CW4 Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 12 Aug 2015 13:47:31 -0400

Are we prepared for the big earthquake to hit San Franciso? What about the next super hurricane to hit the gulf or east coast? How about F5 tornadoes wipping out entire towns? Are our government response agencies prepared?

Response by MAJ Ken Landgren made Aug 12 at 2015 1:54 PM

MAJ Ken Landgren — Wed, 12 Aug 2015 13:54:41 -0400

We learned many lessons with Katrina. Now the one belly button is Homeland Security for disaster preparation and relief. All the federal agencies, cabinets, to include NORTHCOM and a LTG ground commander will fall under the umbrella. During and before Katrina FEMA's plan was to ask for military help, but they did not specify what kind of help. Now the military is a crucial partner as it has the skills to coordinate between disparate agencies and cabinets, and move mountains.

The military is prepared to fly reconnaissance flights to assess the damage quickly. It will send liaison officers to the states ready to be effected and work on plans for disaster preparedness and relief. One example of forward thinking is the military will charter flights to get all the patients out of the hospital, and preposition troops, equipment, vehicles, and supplies in a zone which will not be impacted by the disaster. The NORTHCOM commander has the pull obtain assets from various branches of service. FEMA is the bill payer and will not have a mission much beyond that.

Response by SSgt Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 12 at 2015 2:31 PM

SSgt Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 12 Aug 2015 14:31:25 -0400

Serious weather and disasters ARE common place. Preparation is never a bad thing but we can only afford so much in the way of contingency plans.

Response by MSgt Curtis Ellis made Aug 12 at 2015 2:33 PM

MSgt Curtis Ellis — Wed, 12 Aug 2015 14:33:55 -0400

We are prepared as we're going to be, but you know what they say about the best laid plans... ;)
Nothing ever goes according to plans. Murphy ensures this.

Response by CAPT Kevin B. made Aug 12 at 2015 3:42 PM

CAPT Kevin B. — Wed, 12 Aug 2015 15:42:11 -0400

I'll weigh in as ex Regional Contingency Engineer and FEMA qualified Emergency Manager. I was also the NRNW N-4 at the Ops Center. The answer is "depends". For tornadoes, localized earthquakes, etc. they system is about as good as it's going to get given the money, or lack of it, put into it. Larger events like a Katrina, the response was slower and much more wasteful of resources. Even so, it's about as good as it will get. The "Big Ones" we are not well prepared for because there just isn't a 50 million people safe haven anywhere. California's next big one likely won't be the earthquake but rather an ARkStorm. That's an "Atmospheric River" that happens regularly every 100-200 years, the last one in 1861. So we're due. Essentially it's a pipeline formed in the atmosphere that picks everything up form the western Pacific and dumps it on California. So if we get another 1861, most of the Central Valley is flooded along with a hunk of San Diego, Santa Monica, Long Beach; the coastal lowlands. Continual heavy rain for 40-50 days would be the norm. FEMA estimated about $725 Billion damage a few years ago, but that price is likely very low.

The "BIG BIG One" will be the Yellowstone Caldera letting go. USGS is measuring the thickness of the crust and it's getting thinner all the time. For reference, I've attached a graphic that compares the amount of earth tossed around from past events. Since the size of the caldera has been determined to be much larger than previously thought, the amount being blown out of that one would likely be much larger than the graphic combined.

The East Coast "BIB BIG" will the the tsunami associated with the collapse of La Palma, a small island in the Canary Island chain. That would be 300 feet of water taking about 8 hours to cross the Atlantic. Monitoring there says it's just a matter of time and it absolutely will happen. Sleep well.

Response by LTC Private RallyPoint Member made Aug 12 at 2015 4:52 PM

LTC Private RallyPoint Member — Wed, 12 Aug 2015 16:52:21 -0400

I am not sure we can ever be REALLY prepared.

Response by SSgt Alex Robinson made Aug 12 at 2015 4:55 PM

SSgt Alex Robinson — Wed, 12 Aug 2015 16:55:18 -0400

The population is not for sure. The government is only marginally prepared

Response by Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS made Aug 12 at 2015 6:56 PM

Sgt Aaron Kennedy, MS — Wed, 12 Aug 2015 18:56:19 -0400

Yes, No, Maybe. As CAPT Kevin B. said, it depends.

Think about it like military planning. We have books full of "contingencies." So do organizations like the Red Cross. Some of the Contingencies are VERY well known, because they happened before, so we have a really good plan, which is fleshed out, and we know exactly what we will do, and how to respond to it. Some of them we have been waiting a really long time for them to happen, because well... it was just a matter of time.

Other Contingencies we may know they are going to happen, but not "where" so we've got a great plan, but with a lot of fill in the blanks. Or we may know "where" but not "how bad," which creates a different kind of issue.