In the Strategic Competition with China and Russia, Talent Reigns Supreme

2024-05-31T11:17:11-04:00

In 1999, Gallup asked Americans to pinpoint the most pivotal moments of the 20th century. Topping the list were World War II and the advent of the atom bomb. The decision to drop the atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, effectively concluding WWII, hinged on a singular individual: Robert Oppenheimer. The decision of Oppenheimer’s father to immigrate to the United States not only facilitated this critical and strategic outcome during WWII but also paved the way for the United States’ rise as a global leader throughout the remainder of the 20th century and beyond.

It was talent – not merely technology – that proved decisive.

However, in contemporary times, the prevailing sentiment in Washington tends to view today’s "new war" – the strategic competition between the United States and China and Russia – exclusively through the lens of technology. While technology undoubtedly plays a significant role, it is the human dimension that will ultimately shape the governmental, economic, social, and political landscape within which technology is developed and deployed – much as it did in the last century with Robert Oppenheimer.

Even in the era of artificial intelligence, human talent remains paramount.

This reality is further underscored in the challenges both China and Russia face regarding population growth.

For China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, the future hinges on a race for talent. China's population has declined for the second consecutive year, and projections indicate that its population growth will plummet to -0.66% by 2050 and -1.21% by 2100. Russia faces a similar predicament; its current population of 146 million is less than it was 30 years ago and estimates suggest a 10% decrease in population over the next decade.

Given these significant and perhaps decisive demographic challenges, Xi’s objective of achieving the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by mid this century may be imperiled or even unattainable. Without population growth, China and Russia may struggle to fulfill the economic objectives that are fundamental to its political ambitions. Moreover, since this downward trend is projected to persist throughout the 21st century, both China and Russia may resort to alternative pathways, such as territorial expansion, to compensate for their unrealized economic visions and achieve their political objectives through other means. This reality may have driven China and Russia’s formation of a “no limits” partnership.

Xi and Putin announced their "no limits" partnership just days before Putin's invasion of Ukraine, sparking the deadliest land war in Europe since WWII – a revisionist redux that has only fueled Xi and Putin’s ambitions. Elizabeth Economy, a former Senior Advisor for China at the US Department of Commerce, recently outlined the Xi-Putin global vision:

“By now, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambition to remake the world is undeniable. He wants to dissolve Washington’s network of alliances and purge what he dismisses as “Western” values from international bodies. He wants to knock the U.S. dollar off its pedestal and eliminate Washington’s chokehold over critical technology…Beijing’s playbook begins with a well-defined vision of a transformed world order.”

Xi and Putin’s vision for an alternative world order was further elucidated during Putin’s recent state visit to China. In a 7000-word treatise, Xi and Putin proclaimed their "new era" partnership, delineating a dystopian worldview that prioritizes “immutable sovereignty, state- directed political rights, and a vision that puts China at the center stage” while characterizing the United States as a destabilizing force worldwide.

Both Xi and Putin perceive the United States as the primary obstacle to realizing their vision. They view the ascendance of their power through territorial conquest – evidenced by Ukraine and Taiwan – as essential. Moreover, they see the reorientation of international institutions away from the West as critical to achieving their envisioned alternative world order. In this context of “might makes right” in Ukraine (not to mention potential conflict over Taiwan in the future) and soft power conquest through China’s Belt and Road Initiative, talent emerges as the key determinant of success.

Therefore, the United States and the West must find ways to continue to support the growth of our population and cultivate, retrain, retool, and renew the talent in our nation and society particularly in sectors crucial to economic growth such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, advanced manufacturing, and other STEM fields. Strengthening and modernizing our talent infrastructure to support a 21st century economy will be more potent than any weapon system – be it a bomb, fighter jet, or aircraft carrier. It will enable us to outmatch the economies of Russia and China and emerge victorious.

Talent will prove decisive yet again.

Dr. Alex Gallo is a US Army Veteran and author of “Vetspective,” a RallyPoint series that discusses national security, foreign policy, politics, and society and highlights the analysis of thought-leaders, policy analysts, and scholars. Alex is a Senior Vice President with NobleReach Foundation. He also serves as a fellow with George Mason University’s National Security Institute and an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University.

Follow him on Twitter at @AlexGalloUSA.

Sources:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/3427/most-important-events-century-from-viewpoint- people.aspx

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-drops-2nd-year-raises-long-term- growth-concerns-2024-01-17/

https://www.newsweek.com/2050-population-data-that-could-ruin-china-century-1903597

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-vladimir-putin-meets-with-chinese-leader-xi-jinping-in- beijing [login to see] 3

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-alternative-order-xi-jinping-elizabeth-economy

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/17/china/xi-putin-china-visit-takeaways-intl-hnk/index.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-visit-chinas-xi-deepen-strategic-partnership-2024-05-
15/

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Response by MSG Stan Hutchison made May 31 at 2024 11:29 AM

2024-05-31T11:29:38-04:00

Excellent post! Thank you.

Response by SFC Private RallyPoint Member made Jun 4 at 2024 8:22 AM

2024-06-04T08:22:33-04:00

It seems the Cold War I served during mostly is being replayed, only this time with Russia and China being better partners. This is a race for bodies, resources, and talent; as it has been in the past. I would say our past immigration policy of only accepting the best served us well, Oppenheimer is a prime example.

Response by PV2 Private RallyPoint Member made Jun 4 at 2024 10:53 AM

2024-06-04T10:53:58-04:00

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Response by SGT Ruben Lozada made Jun 5 at 2024 3:20 PM

2024-06-05T15:20:27-04:00

Good afternoon CPT Alex Gallo. Excellent post. Thank you for sharing this Sir.

Response by SrA Cecelia Eareckson made Jun 7 at 2024 2:39 AM

2024-06-07T02:39:44-04:00

Remind me why the word "academic" is a synonym for "meaningless?" We simply are not developing talent in much of any field beyond entertainment. Twenty years after welfare reform, we have cities in ruins. Poverty has become an industry, with powdered milk from - China - and macaroni from Egypt doled out at food pantries. The only business I see flourishing in my neck of the woods is marijuana. It's not the hippy stuff of half a century ago.
I love my country, but it has gone soft.

Response by MAJ Ken Landgren made Jun 8 at 2024 3:10 PM

2024-06-08T15:10:05-04:00

Taiwan is not a forgone conclusion of Chinese imperialism.

Response by LTC David Brown made Jun 10 at 2024 5:09 PM

2024-06-10T17:09:58-04:00

Great post. I am reading “The Triumph and Tragedy of Robert Oppenheimer” now. What a wonderful man. I keep thinking of the DEI agenda. As a straight, white Jewish male he would have been toast for advancement and selection to lead at Los Alamos and the production of the Atom Bomb. Right now Biden’s chief economist has education and background in music and social work.

Response by SFC Casey O'Mally made Jun 14 at 2024 12:00 PM

2024-06-14T12:00:01-04:00

I believe your premise is both important and flawed at the same time.

We identified the need for the bomb. If it wasn't Oppenheimer, it would have been someone else. Yes, Oppenheimer stepped up, did the job, and did it well. His particular talent was needed and properly applied. But was Oppenheimer the *only* person in the entire US who could have gotten the job done? I don't think so.

Yes, talent is important. Because we need that talent to develop the technology. And as technology develops and is deployed, it sparks and generates new forms of talent. It is a symbiotic relationship, not a master/slave one.

Talent is vital. But talent without direction, without development, and without support is meaningless. Saying it "reigns supreme" denies the reality of everything that goes into development and advancement.

If Oppenheimer never existed, we would have still had the bomb. But if we didn't have the funding? Or if Truman was unwilling to use it? If we refused to learn from the uses and develop further technology, create specialized fields?

Far more important than talent, IMHO, is political will. If the people want something, they will find the talent. If the people do not, no amount of talent will matter.

Also, population growth or shrinkage is irrelevant to the thesis.

Response by SPC Cliff Lancaste made Jun 21 at 2024 1:23 PM

2024-06-21T13:23:47-04:00

Talent? Not race or gender?